South Africa’s most vocal opposition politician Julius Malema is clearly on Russia’s side in the Ukraine war. “We need a new world order, we are tired of letting America dictate everything to us,” announced the president of the left-wing populist Economic Freedom Fighters at a rally. But Malema doesn’t just respond to the anti-Western reflexes that resonate across the African continent. But he also gives historical justification for his position: “Russia was on our side before it was fashionable,” he recently told the BBC.
What the 41-year-old is referring to: The current African National Congress (ANC) has already received material support from the Soviet Union in its fight against apartheid, where many commanders have also been trained. While ruling party officials are not as radical as Malema – a former member of the ANC – they share the view that South Africa should not turn away from Russia.
weapons and loans
This political pressure alone makes it difficult for President Cyril Ramaphosa to condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. What the 69-year-old, as an ANC veteran, may not want for himself: Ramaphosa even avoids the word war and prefers to speak of a conflict that must be resolved through negotiations. And in the face of rising gas and food prices, he complains that countries that have nothing to do with the conflict in Ukraine are also affected by sanctions against Russia.
This backdrop makes US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s trip to South Africa quite delicate. Blinken, who is still talking to South African government officials today, Tuesday, wants to convince them more strongly of the US position. “If we allow a big country to invade a small one, we set an example for the rest of the world,” he said.
But Blinken, who will also travel to Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, is concerned with much more than supporting the course of his government in Ukraine. The United States is watching with apprehension as Russia and China gain more and more influence in Africa. Russia builds alliances primarily through arms deliveries. China, in turn, enables infrastructure projects through its loans, which are often taken over by Chinese companies. Beijing announces with its own record: because it has managed to elevate hundreds of millions of people into the middle class, the People’s Republic sees itself as a model for developing countries.
Built with Chinese help: New oil terminal at the port of Mombasa, Kenya.
– © AFP
On Monday, the US unveiled its new Africa strategy at the same time as Blinken’s visit. Washington wants to do more to promote democracy and open societies and counter “harmful activities by the People’s Republic of China, Russia and other actors”. Accordingly, China would also undermine the existing world order in Africa. Russia, for its part, is destabilizing the continent with the support of dictators and paramilitaries.
democratic armies
“We will help Africa to obtain democratic and security benefits”, says the newspaper. This means that the US, while not completely realigning its fight against terrorism, wants to change it. The focus should no longer be just on the security aspect, that is, training the military to fight terrorism. Instead, US-backed armies themselves must contribute to the democratization of their countries. This is the only way for armed groups to guarantee long-term stability.
In the document, the United States also emphasizes that it sees its European allies in Africa as like-minded partners. And so the US, like the Europeans, wants to support more and more development projects and help Africa better absorb the consequences of climate change.
However, this strategy can only be effective if it is supported by sufficient financial resources. In the immediate future, it will become clear how much support the US is willing to give. Africa has been particularly hard hit by rising food and energy prices. Millions of Africans who were on their way to the middle class were thrown back into poverty. And many regions, such as Somalia, South Sudan or Sudan, are already facing catastrophic famine or facing serious famine problems – also due to the lack of grain deliveries from Ukraine and Russia.
That is why the humanitarian consequences for many African countries are the decisive aspect of the war in Ukraine. Otherwise, most states don’t want to take sides too much. They fear being drawn into a new Cold War. Instead, they want to keep all options open.
And here South Africa is a good example. While maintaining close ties with Russia and China, it also sees itself as a US partner and wants to cooperate closely with Washington economically – not least because no other country now has more tourists coming to South Africa.