Third baseman for the Red Sox Stars Raphael Devers recently turned down a renewal offer from the team, reports Héctor Gómez of Z101 (Twitter link). Gomez adds that Boston’s offer for Devers exceeded the $124 million deal Jose Ramirez signed with the Guardians. Further details of the offer are not known, but MassLive’s Chris Cotillo characterizes the sides as “very far” apart.
Both Gómez and Cotillo think it’s unlikely there will be any further discussion before the Red Sox open the season against the Yankees on Friday. Devers has previously indicated that he will not consider an extension during the season. That appears to see him playing this season on the $11.2 million salary he and the Sox agreed to last month to avoid an arbitration hearing.
It stands to reason that the Boston front office will try to expand Devers at least next winter. He is controllable via arbitration for one more season beyond this one. By the next offseason, the reigning AL Silver Slugger will have banked over $16 million in career earnings at third base. Aside from a significant injury, he will be in line for a rather notable raise this season in his final year of referees before meeting the free hand ahead of his campaign aged 27.
That’s all to say Devers has little pressure to accept a significant discount. The Red Sox certainly won’t make a market-value offer two years before free agency, but keeping him in the herd long-term would require one of the biggest investments in the history of this bucket of service. The Braves signed the first baseman Matt Olson — who also has more than four years of service — to an eight-year, $168 million renewal last month. Just Joey Votto (ten years, $225 million) and Gian Carlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million) have topped Olson’s deal among players with between four and five years of service.
Olson was projected an arbitration salary of $12 million before signing his renewal, not too dissimilar to Devers’ current mark. He and Devers have family-like numbers going back three seasons. Olson has owned a .257/.354/.522 line since early 2019; Devers is a .290/.350/.537 hitter during this period. The latter hits a better average, while Olson pulls significantly more walks. Olson was 34 percentage points above average as measured by wRC+, while Devers is 29 points above average.
Obviously, Olson and Devers are not making an apples-to-apples comparison. Devers plays a more challenging position but is considered one of the worst defensive third basemen in the league. Olson plays the position furthest down the defensive spectrum, but he’s perhaps the best gloveman in the game at first base. One could argue that Olson is the more valuable all-rounder, but Devers is two and a half years younger. The Devers’ camp at Rep 1 Baseball could argue for a deal that exceeds Olson’s in length and overall guarantee, making it not surprising that “just” exceeding Ramírez’s $124 million guarantee wouldn’t do the trick. (To be clear, it’s not known how close the Red Sox’s offer to Devers was to Ramírez’s number).
Regardless of whether Boston and Devers eventually work something out long-term, he’ll be there for the next two seasons. This is not necessarily the case with shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $60 million on his contract after this season. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe spoke to Boagerts on Monday. The star shortstop told Speier he and the club held talks this spring but he doesn’t expect an extension to be worked out in the coming days. Like Devers, Bogaerts indicated that he has no interest in further negotiations after the season has started.
Bogaerts would hit the open market ahead of his season at the age of 30 and looks likely to be easily over $60m barring an unexpected drop in performance or injury. The Sox added a potential All-Star alternate when they signed last month Trevor story to a six-year, $140 million contract. The longtime Rockie agreed to play at second base this season out of deference to Boagerts. Boston could keep him at the capstone if they secure a long-term deal with Bogaerts, but Story could also return to his old position in 2023 if the Sox’s reigning shortstop goes elsewhere.