At the GM meetings in Las Vegas, General Manager of the Rangers Chris Young recently spoke to the media, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, and said the club will explore all areas of the launch pitching market. Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentions some discussions between the Rangers and Jacob de Gromwhile Jon Morosi of the MLB Network also mentions deGrom, in addition to Carlo Rodon and Kodai Senga.
It’s hardly a surprise that rotation will be a focus going forward, as it was an obvious weakness in 2022. Texas starters recorded a collective ERA of 4.63 that year, ranking 25th in the majors in that regard. They got decent work from Jon Gray and a career year veteran Martin Perez, although Perez has now achieved the free hand, depriving the already weak rotation of its strongest performer. There is reportedly a mutual interest in a reunion, with he and the club reportedly discussing multi-year pacts. But nothing has been decided yet and he has now officially received a qualifying offer of $19.65 million.
The club has already taken a step to strengthen and acquire the starting corps Jake Odorizzi yesterday from Atlanta. Odorizzi hasn’t been great in the last three years, but he seems capable of taking the ball and delivering some decent innings. He had a 4.21 ERA in 2021 and a 4.40 mark in 2022, but received 100 innings in each of those seasons and 143 in every year from 2014 through 2019.
If the Rangers and Perez can come to terms, he would form a solid three-man veteran core with Gray and Odorizzi. The rotation would have a solid base, but would lack a true ace. Perez posted a 2.89 ERA in 2022 but has averaged 4.38 or better in each of the last eight seasons. Even if he’s unlocked a pitch mix that yields better results, maintaining a 6.5% HR/FB rate will be difficult, and some regression might still be on the horizon. Gray had a few injuries to deal with this year but still made 24 starts and posted a 3.96 ERA with rate stats pretty close to his career stats. Dane reminder could also be a factor at the back end of the rotation, having posted a 4.46 ERA across 29 starts this year. His health is somewhat uncertain after his season ended with hip arthroscopic surgery, but he may be an option if healthy.
It seems Rangers are ready to consider another bold hit to add to this group of viable pitchers. Last year they showed that they do not shy away from such steps Corey Seeger $325 million over ten years and Markus Semien $175 million over seven years. This year, it’s possible that the big strike will come for an ace to lead the starting team. That could come in the form of a deal for Rodon, which the club are already linked with, with deGrom and Senga also being considered.
deGrom, 35 in June, certainly fits the ace’s bill as he is arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy. That health hasn’t always been there, especially recently, with deGrom missing for over a year from July 2021 to August 2022. Upon his return, however, he showed he can still be his dominant self by making 11 starts and throwing 64 1/3 of an innings. His 3.08 ERA was two full runs above what he was doing before his injury layoff in 2021, but the periphery was still very similar. His 42.7% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate were both still absurdly good and point to more elite results in the future. Given his health concerns and age, it’s possible he’s considering short-term offers with his annual salary. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was cleared yesterday with a forecast of $135 million over three years, equivalent to $45 million a year.
That would certainly be a way forward for the club. Another would be a more traditional contract with a longer term but less money per year. MLBTR projected a higher guarantee for Rodon of $140 million, although that would be significantly less on an annualized basis over a five-year term, at $28 million per year. Senga will likely need even less, likely $75 over five years, or $15 million per season. Of course, that would also come with its own risk, given that Senga’s unproven MLB hitters, and not all of the NPB aces, have found similar success after crossing the Pacific.
With numbers like that, it’s worth taking a look at the club’s personnel situation. Roster Resource currently puts Rangers’ spending for 2023 at $122 million. Last year’s opening day number was $142 million per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they’re only about $20 million away. When Perez finally accepts QO, they’re suddenly even. However, Young has already talked about how the payroll will increase, and it’s been as high as $165 million in past seasons. Ultimately, exactly how much they have to spend will play a role in how they approach the rotation. For example, if they have $45 million to play with, putting all those eggs in the deGrom basket would be a huge upgrade, but it would leave nothing to appeal to the outfield or the bullpen. Regardless of the final figure, it will be interesting to see how it fares as the club look to gain some serious ground in a competitive AL West.