The 2023 NFL season flew by, but the 2024 NFL offseason got off to a slow start, and there's a chance some big names could stall the coaching movement. However, that didn't last long as there was some major news in the last 24 to 48 hours.
On Wednesday, Pete Carroll resigned as Seahawks coach, then Alabama announced Nick Saban was leaving the program. The next domino was clear and it happened on Thursday morning when Bill Belichick and the Patriots parted ways. It's absolutely crazy to think about Belichick leaving the Patriots after bottoming out in a post-Tom Brady world, but it's also a reminder that the NFL waits for no one.
With Belichick gone, we currently have EIGHT open positions in the NFL. Maybe we're done? Who is to say that? I guess it's more likely we'll get more changes than not, but let's first evaluate and discuss the current eight openings.
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With the surprising news of Pete Carroll – the long-time coach is leaving as head coach and moving to an advisory role in Seattle – the job with the Seahawks skips the job with the Commanders for me. This is a 9-8 team with a ton of talent on the roster and a chance to be a playoff/Super Bowl contender with just a few moves.
Quarterback is technically a long-term “issue,” depending on what the current crop of free agent (or hired?!) coaches think about Geno Smith and Drew Lock. But the Seahawks used the Russell Wilson trade to completely retool their organization and replenish talent on both sides of the ball.
John Schneider is the best GM in the NFL. There are young guys on offense and a great trio of wide receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet round out a really strong offense. There's also plenty to offer on defense, especially given the way young players like Devon Witherspoon and Boye Mafe have developed this year.
The biggest drawback might be the obvious coaching candidate for the job: Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Quinn led the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his first run as head coach. Atlanta hired him because of his work as Carroll's defensive coordinator. He made it in Dallas and is patiently waiting for his next chance. He would make the transition in Seattle seamless. Both Mike Vrabel and, dare I say, Bill Belichick would be intriguing candidates for this gig if they were also interested.
For nearly 25 years, Dan Snyder was a disastrous job in Washington. He would attract big name candidates because coaching in Washington was a BIG deal. This was one of the biggest franchises in the NFL for several decades and Snyder made it nearly untouchable. Enter Josh Harris, who did a great job of simply doing the opposite of Dan Snyder. That means: Harris didn't fire Ron Rivera in his first season as owner and handled the entire situation confidently. Then he brings in Bob Myers and Rick Spielman as members of his search committee, and there is hope again in Washington. Things can change (David Tepper seemed like a good owner at first), but for now the Commanders are at the top of this list because a new, seemingly patient owner is in charge and has a clear commitment to winning while maintaining the to upend the toxic culture that has permeated the Beltway for years.
Washington has the No. 2 overall pick, which doesn't hurt either. (Maybe they can draft Drake Maye, pair him with Sam Howell, hire Mack Brown and secure eight wins a year, just like the Tar Heels!) Trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat midseason isn't great, but it adds value to the draft -Capital for the new coaching staff and by avoiding awarding contracts to former first-round picks, creating plenty of salary cap space.
There's an opportunity to land a franchise quarterback here, with potentially strong ownership, a fantastic fan base that craves quality football, and possibly a new stadium. The job in Washington is extremely attractive again.
Two words: Justin Herbert. It's amazing the difference a superstar and franchise quarterback makes when ranking potential job openings, because without Herbert the Chargers would be far down the list. I would actually put the Chargers at fourth if they didn't have Herbert, mostly because of ownership and management concerns. There is a caveat here if the Chargers sign someone like Jim Harbaugh or Bill Belichick, because bringing that type of weight into the building changes the power dynamic between ownership and coaching staff/front office. But read John Spanos' bio on the Chargers' website – the owner's son essentially credits himself for the Chargers' rise to prominence (which is a perfectly valid claim; maybe update it too and stop saying to brag about hiring Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley?).
This situation makes me very concerned about the dynamic between the front office and coaching staff, but Herbert's abilities could solve any problems with the right attitude of a coach. The Chargers also have some roster issues to deal with. While there is plenty of talent on both sides, from a contractual perspective the company is slowly aging and bloated. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams aren't exactly guaranteed to be on the roster, and Khalil Mack/Joey Bosa aren't exactly spring chickens either. Austin Ekeler's return is certainly in question as well… There's just a little more uncertainty with this roster than you might think when you look at the depth chart.
Hot take, but I would listen to anyone who says the Falcons should be the NUMBER ONE JOB here. This is a team that has another top-10 pick after going 7-10 and may be just one quarterback away from taking over the NFC South. Being in a bad division is a big plus because winning 10 games is a deadly key to a division title in the NFC South these days. There are weapons for a QB on offense too: Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson along with a pretty good and secure offensive line could turn someone like Justin Fields or Kirk Cousins or Jayden Daniels into a dynamic signal-caller pretty quickly.
Despite the lack of notable wins, there is some stability in Atlanta. Arthur Blank gave his coaches plenty of chances to win: Mike Smith got seven years, Dan Quinn got six, and Arthur Smith got three years with seven wins before he was fired. If you stay afloat in Atlanta, you won't be run out of town anytime soon. I actually believe that perhaps some outside interest in the job hastened Smith's departure.
This defense was really good last year. If that continues and the Falcons find a good offensive coach and a quarterback, there is serious opportunity for Atlanta here.
This situation appears to be limited to a handful of candidates, although that changes dramatically depending on what Mark Davis does with the general manager position, which is also vacant.
Quarterback is also an issue here, as the Raiders' Jimmy Garoppolo move failed (mainly because Josh McDaniels failed). Aiden O'Connell showed some promise in the second half, but this is clearly a team looking for its next franchise quarterback. The stadium is extremely attractive, as is the high profile of the team that is now in Las Vegas.
There have been several head coaching changes for the Raiders over the last five years, but one can definitely argue extenuating circumstances – Jon Gruden was going to stay in Las Vegas as long as he wanted before an email scandal forced him out. And McDaniels simply tried to start Patriots West and probably froze Davis while he tried to take control of the organization a la Bill Belichick. In other words, the next Raiders coach will be given some leeway, especially if it's a big name. I'm looking at you, Jim Harbaugh.
Antonio Pierce certainly complicates matters. The interim coach is popular in the locker room and with the fan base, so the Raiders will have to be a little careful about recreating the last situation with a big-name coach. Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams are real superstars. The division is a big old problem, just like the Chargers, except they don't have a quarterback yet.
*GAP*
6. New England Patriots
I'm not saying the Patriots' job is BAD. It's a great job. Working for Robert Kraft seems fantastic. And this is a legendary franchise. But just like the Alabama job, this is a BILL FREAKING BELICHICK situation. Look no further than the Patriots' quarterback situation. Even with Cam Newton acting as a buffer, Mac Jones will still face competition from Tom Brady. The next Pats coach will have Super Bowl banners staring down at him every time he looks around.
From a squad perspective, this isn't the best lineup either. The offense is a hot mess – there's no real talent to speak of other than Rhamondre Stevenson (maybe you can make a case for Tyqan Thorton or DeMario Davis?). Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe don't seem to be the answer. There are a lot of really fun guys on defense, but injuries ravaged the Patriots last year and Belichick's coaching held them together; Can the next coach put together a top-notch defense like Belichick did with the Pats? That's asking a lot.
The No. 3 pick is nice, but it's also not the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, which makes you feel much more comfortable getting a quarterback.
*ANOTHER GAP*
The Titans surprised everyone on Tuesday when they fired Mike Vrabel — there are plenty of potential spots for him and he should find a job quickly — but there was plenty of simmering talk about whether Vrabel would stay in Nashville. With Vrabel gone and Ryan Tannehill/Derrick Henry set to become free agents, this is a complete rebuild in Tennessee.
GM Ran Carthon, who had been on the job for less than a full year, won a power struggle with a former AP Coach of the Year (2021) who led that team to an AFC championship game and had the Titans as the No. 1 seed in the AFC at one Point. Suffice it to say, Carthon has the ear of Amy Adams-Strunk and has plenty of power in this coaching search.
For that reason, I expect people from San Francisco's coaching staff (Carthon worked for Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch with the 49ers for years) to be chosen for this job. Frank Smith and Bobby Slowik make a lot of sense right off the bat.
However, this is not an easy task. There just aren't many building blocks. At quarterback, there's no certainty where Will Levis excelled, but with his second-round pedigree, he's no guarantee of a “franchise” quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is also probably gone. Jeffery Simmons is a star on defense. There is a top 10 selection. The owners and front office should exercise a lot of patience as they try to rebuild things.
Somehow the division isn't a plus anymore – CJ Stroud is a problem, the Jaguars aren't a drag and the Colts seem to be rebuilding things.
*ANOTHER GAP*
My stance on the Carolina situation is well-documented: The Panthers have a David Tepper problem. Luckily for Tepper, he has plenty of money and can continue to attack the problem with cash.
We thank the Panthers for being much more transparent and open in this coaching search than the last two. Unfortunately, the remnants of the previous two regimes still remain. Specifically, the Panthers are trading the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the Bears, plus DJ Moore, plus additional picks for Bryce Young.
Young can still be a good quarterback, but having his rookie season on tape could limit potential suitors. Additionally, it's hard to look past Matt Rhule and Frank Reich, who have been together for about three years combined.
It looks like Carolina is going after the “young offensive mind” archetype, with the idea of fixing Young, which isn’t a bad idea. But this is a really, really big setting that needs to work better – or at least longer – than the last two settings. The Panthers have no first-round pick, plenty of holes in the roster and many questions about the stability of the existing regime.