Heather DinichESPN Senior Writer November 28, 2023, 7:00am ET8 minutes read
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
Conference championship week is unlike any other for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee because it is the only time members watch the games together.
They begin Friday night with the Conference USA game between New Mexico State and Liberty, followed by the Pac-12 title game between Oregon and Washington (8 p.m. ET/ABC). They will discuss the teams as the games progress, but will not begin their deliberations and votes until after Saturday night’s ACC Championship game between Louisville and Florida State (8 p.m. ET/ABC).
“It’s really nice to sit together as a group at the conference championship games as we put together our final rankings,” selection committee chairman Boo Corrigan told ESPN. “Being together at these finals gives us the opportunity to talk in real time about what we’re seeing, compare the level of play between teams side by side and compare notes on what we’ve seen alone during regular season play. “
It’s by far the longest night of the season. This year could also be the most difficult.
The conference title games are the missing piece – the last chance to impress members while having their undivided attention. The opponent counts. As well as how the game is won. There is a written protocol that provides guidance to committee members when the teams are comparable. They use tiebreakers to settle matters – and winning a conference title is one of them.
The committee’s No. 1 team has never fallen out of the top four – but never has the field been so large.
Here’s how each Power 5 title game could impact the final rankings on Selection Day. The games are ranked in order of greatest impact:
Jump to:
ACC | Big 12
Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
ESPN Analytics says: Georgia has a 53% chance of winning.
If Georgia wins: The undefeated Bulldogs will clinch a spot in the CFP, giving them a chance to win their third straight national title. However, the reason this game is number 1 on the list is because if it doesn’t, it could be difficult for the selection committee.
If Alabama wins: The Tide will know by kickoff at 4 p.m. ET whether they should still be concerned about their home loss to Texas in Week 2, as the Big 12 Championship Game begins at noon. If Texas finishes as Big 12 champions with a single loss and Alabama wins the SEC title, there could be a big debate in the committee boardroom about which team to pick if there isn’t room for both. Alabama’s win over Georgia would be the best in the country — assuming Georgia is still the committee’s top team when the fifth of six rankings are announced Tuesday. Even if Texas wins the Big 12, Alabama would have a stronger record after Georgia’s win. Head-to-head results are just one of several tiebreakers the committee uses when teams are comparable. They also leverage strength of schedule, common opponents and conference titles. The biggest question would be how the committee weighs Alabama’s resume against the Longhorns’ Week 2 win – and also which team they think is better. The way Alabama and Texas play in their respective championship games could also play a role in the decision.
Then there’s the question of what to do with Georgia, which has suffered just one loss. It will be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to make it into the playoffs without winning the SEC – unless there are upsets in the other Power 5 Conference championship games. In the best-case scenario, Florida State and Texas would lose, leaving Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Alabama and Georgia undefeated. The committee could also consider a single loss for Ohio State in that scenario, but Georgia was ahead of the Buckeyes in every previous ranking.
ESPN Analytics says: Florida State has a 74% chance of winning.
If Florida State wins: It would be extremely difficult for the committee to exclude the undefeated ACC champions – even with an average performance from backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker. The Seminoles would pick up three wins against the CFP’s top 25 teams, including No. 14 LSU, No. 24 Clemson and Louisville, which will likely still be a top 15 win after the loss to Kentucky. That would check two boxes for tiebreakers – conference title and strength of schedule. And the tiebreakers are only used if the committee deems two teams to be comparable. If FSU is undefeated, it would be difficult for the committee to classify it as “comparable” to a team with a single loss. If undefeated FSU does indeed secure a spot in the top four, that means other contenders in the bubble had to get help elsewhere.
It’s possible FSU could move back into the top four after losing fifth-ranked Ohio State on Tuesday night, but the committee could keep the Noles currently at No. 5 and give Oregon a boost over ranked rival Oregon with a loss Beat State. In this case, remember that it is a snapshot. The results of the conference championship game could change it again.
If Louisville wins: The ACC would be eliminated from the playoffs. A two-loss team has never made the playoffs, and even a conference title wouldn’t be enough for Louisville to make up for losses to Pitt and Kentucky. In addition to eliminating the ACC, a Florida State loss would open the door for another contender – be it one-loss Ohio State, conference winner Texas and Alabama, or possibly SEC runner-up Georgia.
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ESPN Analytics says: Oregon has a 76% chance of winning.
If Oregon wins: The Ducks would have a great chance of finishing in the top four if they avenged their loss to the Huskies in the regular season, but before anyone names them semifinalists, let’s see where they rank in fifth place. If Oregon is ahead of undefeated Florida State with a loss, it’s a sign that this committee values the Ducks’ eye test as more important than it is on their resume, and a conference title should solidify a spot in the top four. Currently, Oregon only has one win against a CFP Top 25 team, against then-No. 16 Oregon State. The Beavers look set to fall again on Tuesday night after their second straight loss.
Oregon’s record would improve significantly if it beats a top-four Washington team and wins the Pac-12. But what if Oregon goes with a loss against Texas with a loss and Alabama with a loss? The Tide would have defeated the committee’s No. 1 team. Texas would win against the SEC champs. Undefeated Michigan would be there. Undefeated Florida State would likely be there. Oregon’s resume would be scrutinized when compared head-to-head with Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State. According to ESPN’s record strength metric, Ohio State would finish higher than Texas and Oregon even if those teams finished as conference champions with a loss. Oregon’s opportunity to prove to the committee that it can beat Washington when it counts will be crucial.
If Washington wins: The undefeated Huskies would clinch a playoff spot, their first since 2016 and their second appearance overall. Oregon would be eliminated with a second loss.
ESPN Analytics says: Texas has an 88% chance of winning.
If Texas wins: The Longhorns will have to hope their conference title and resume are enough to finish in the top four for the first time this season. Texas will likely face the lowest-ranked opponent of all competitors in a Power 5 championship game. The Longhorns have had a look at the other Power 5 conferences in every ranking. Would a win against Oklahoma State change that? The reality is that Texas needs help. Even with a conference title, the Longhorns’ record would fall behind every other Power 5 champion. Since K-State lost to Iowa State on Saturday, it’s possible the Wildcats could fall out of the top 25, leaving Texas with a regular-season win against a ranked opponent – Bama.
The ideal scenario would be Georgia eliminating Alabama and Florida State losing. That would leave the committee with undefeated Michigan, the Pac-12 champion and Georgia. Fourth place might be a debate with Ohio State, but the Longhorns’ win at Alabama would still be better than Ohio State’s wins over Penn State and at Notre Dame. The conference title would also be a tiebreaker. It’s subjective so there’s no guarantee, but the protocol would be more Texas-focused.
If Oklahoma State wins: The Big 12 would be eliminated from the playoffs because Oklahoma State has three losses. This would be especially important if Alabama wins the SEC, because then the Tide wouldn’t have to worry about being rejected in favor of Texas due to the loss to the Longhorns. It could be very easy for the committee if Texas loses. The committee would then select the four remaining Power 5 conference champions, assuming Michigan and Florida State both win and join the SEC and Pac-12 champions. Or it could be one of several upsets that open the door for Ohio State or someone else.
5. Big Ten: Iowa (10-2) vs. Michigan (12-0)
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ESPN Analytics says: Michigan has a 93% chance of winning.
If Michigan wins: The undefeated Wolverines, with head coach Jim Harbaugh returning after his suspension, would win the Big Ten for the third straight season and secure a spot in the top four. Michigan hasn’t won three straight conference titles since 1990-92. If Georgia is No. 1 again on Tuesday night, the only way Michigan appears to be in the top spot on Selection Day is if Alabama wins the SEC. It only matters because of seeding, as the committee will not give the No. 1 team a geographical disadvantage in a semi-final, and of course because the top team is playing against the No. 4 team.
If Iowa wins: Good God. There’s a reason this game is last on the list. The Wolverines are a 23-point favorite on ESPN BET, the most in a Big Ten title game. Iowa’s offense has become a punchline in college football, which is unfortunate because it has overshadowed one of the best defenses in the country. If, somehow – perhaps through ball losses that create a (really) short field? — If Iowa pulls off a stunning upset, one of two things would happen: The Big Ten would be eliminated or Ohio State would move into the top four. The latter would depend on what happens elsewhere. The Pac-12 champion would be there, along with the SEC champion. The same goes for undefeated Florida State. The committee would then have to choose between Big 12 champion Texas, one-loss Ohio State or possibly SEC runner-up Georgia. However, in this scenario, Texas would have something Georgia didn’t have – a win against the SEC champion. This is another scenario that favors Texas and leaves the Big Ten out.