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SEOUL – As more travelers from China visit international destinations for the first time in three years, Covid data from locations with on-arrival testing offer insight into the pandemic situation in China, which the World Health Organization says has been obscured by insufficient data.
In late December, two flights from China to Italy brought nearly 100 passengers infected with the coronovirus; about half of one flight and a third of another tested positive.
Countries around the world soon introduced heightened testing requirements for arrivals from China, taking effect in advance of increased travel during the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January. The new rules come into effect amid reports of overcrowded hospitals and drug shortages in China after it reversed its “zero Covid” policy.
Among the strictest are the policies in Italy, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which require passengers from China to be tested on arrival. The United States requires proof of a negative test before departure, while other countries test aircraft effluent on flights originating in China.
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Official data showed infection rates of more than 20 percent among travelers from China to neighboring South Korea and Taiwan in the first week of January.
Data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, obtained by the Washington Post, showed a 23.2% infection rate for short-term visitors to Korea from China (or 314 out of 1,352 tested at the airport) from Jan. 2-6 KDCA expected, to release data on all travelers from China next week, an official told The Post.
According to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, about one in five travelers (21%) from mainland China tested positive for Covid from Jan. 1-5, or 1,111 out of 5,283 arrivals.
On Friday, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported that about 8 percent of visitors from China tested positive for Covid from December 30 to January 6, or 408 out of 4,895 arrivals. Data from Italy were not immediately available.
“These numbers are certain [the] Tip of the iceberg that highlights the immense scale of infections in China,” wrote Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, in an email, responding to early reports putting the infection rate at 20 to 50 percent Chinese suspect travelers.
The numbers are particularly high “when we consider that people would not normally travel abroad unless they feel well and healthy or have no symptoms,” he said.
However, given the high levels of exposure to Covid in many countries, “it is not reasonable to see this [visitors from China] as sick or dangerous,” he said.
Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, called the high early infection rates “completely consistent with projections that the majority of the population of large cities is already infected”. He said in an email that people can remain positive on PCR tests for weeks.
“Since most infections occurred in late December and early January, and more than half of the population in major cities has already been infected, it is entirely plausible that a high percentage of travelers tested positive,” he wrote. “Those who test positive mostly have only recently recovered from an infection rather than still being sick and/or contagious.”
Last month, China partially lifted domestic restrictions, a move seen as a response to a rare public backlash to the country’s notoriously strict zero-Covid policy.
On Sunday, China will end extensive quarantine requirements for incoming passengers, a decision that will primarily benefit Chinese wishing to depart or Chinese nationals abroad wishing to return. Mainland China is still closed to foreign tourists.
The move comes just weeks before the Lunar New Year, which begins on January 22nd. Before the pandemic, travel during China’s national holiday, “Golden Week,” was considered a global holiday largest annual human migration.
The Chinese holiday “will ensure that the virus reaches every last corner of the country by the end of January,” Cowling said.
Huang said the holiday season will encourage “retaliatory tourism” — travel that makes up for time lost during the pandemic — and is likely to cause a spike in outbound infections. But he also said it was unlikely travelers leaving China would exacerbate the virus elsewhere.
“So far, there is no evidence of emerging new subvarieties from China,” he said. “Given that most of these countries have learned to coexist with Covid-19, the influx of Chinese visitors will not lead to an increase in cases in these countries.”
The changes also come amid a broader scrutiny of Beijing, which has stopped counting asymptomatic Covid cases. The World Health Organization has questioned China’s data and requested more information from Beijing.
The testing Requirements targeting arrivals from China has drawn the ire of Chinese authorities. “Some of these measures are disproportionate and simply unacceptable,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said at a news conference on Jan. 3. “We firmly oppose the use of COVID measures for political purposes and will take appropriate measures based on the principle of reciprocity in different situations.”
Julia Mio Inuma in Tokyo and Lily Kuo in Taipei, Taiwan contributed to this report.