The Red Sox are reportedly on par with the outfielder Adam Duval on a one-year, $7 million deal that could reach $10 million with performance bonuses, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. According to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, performance bonuses are based on plate appearance. The deal is still pending. Duvall is a customer of CAA Sports.
Duvall, 34, started his MLB career with the Giants in 2014 and has since bounced around the NL, playing for the Reds, Braves and Marlins. The highlights of his career so far have been the 2016 season, when he won an All-Star selection with the Reds and hit .241/.297/.498 (104 wRC+) with 33 home runs in 150 games, and the 2021 season, when he won one Gold Glove Award, cut .226/.287/.513 (107 wRC+) for the Braves after a midseason trade from the Marlins and won the World Series with Atlanta. During the season, Duvall led the NL in RBI with 113 while hitting 38 homers.
Duvall returned to Atlanta for his final year at arbitration for the 2022 season after not being written out by the club just a year earlier, but his season at age 33 hasn’t fared quite as well as his stint with the Braves the season before . Before his season ended with a left wrist sprain in late July, Duvall’s offense declined significantly. At the start of the 2022 season, Duvall’s career ISO was .241, and his .263 ISO in 2021 ranked him 14th among all qualified batsmen. However, that power largely disappeared in 2022 when Duvall’s ISO shrank to just .188, only ranked 74th in baseball among players with at least 300 PA. That dip in performance saw Duvall’s offensive production crater as he only managed a .213/.276/.401 (87 wRC+) line in 86 games, though his solid defense still allowed him to amass .9 fWAR during that time.
Duvall’s strikeout and walk rates in 2022, in addition to his batted ball profile, remained fairly consistent with those he posted in 2021, suggesting that Duvall’s power failure in 2022 was simply due to the change in offensive environment last season could be due and not to a regression in competencies. For a low OBP racquet like Duvall, the drop in power is certainly a concern given its ability to play as an average racquet every day. That being said, Duvall has still been crushing lefties in 2022 with a .233/.282/.562 slash (129 wRC+) while posting a strong +5 OAA in just a half-season split mostly between left and center field what shows that he still has value even if his power doesn’t return to his pre-2022 form.
There’s more to come…