If the 2022 national elections in Colombia marked a turn to the left, the local and regional elections this Sunday, October 29, will bring the strengthening of local leadership and the weakness of alternative candidacies, representing a striking contrast to that what happened four years ago. The 32 elected governors and 1,102 mayors represent less the various parties they support than the local authorities they lead or to which they belong. This change will be more or less noticeable depending on the weight of these four main factors in each municipality and department.
The rejection of the recent past
Outgoing mayors and governors generally enter these elections with a poor image. However, not all cases are as negative as those of Daniel Quintero in Medellín (63% disapproval according to pollster Invamer and 73% according to Atlas Intel) or Jorge Iván Ospina in Cali (77% and 75.9% respectively). worse than their predecessors. For example, the popular Jaime Pumarejo of Barranquilla has less approval than his political boss Álex Char four years ago: 57% versus 95%, according to the Invamer poll.
The strength of this general trend will determine Sunday’s results. The mayors and governors who arrived on January 1, 2020 faced the largest pandemic in at least a century and the largest decline in GDP in 75 years, faced rising unemployment and then high inflation, and were helpless in the face of increasing uncertainty . The question is to what extent this will represent a profound shift in local power, as polls in places like Medellín, Cúcuta or Cartagena show; and where it will still remain in the same hands, as expected in Barranquilla, Boyacá or Valle del Cauca.
The weakness of the alternative brand
2019 was a great year for alternative candidates, those who came from outside traditional politics and even politics in general. The elections of Claudia López in Bogotá, Daniel Quintero in Medellín, William Dau in Cartagena, Jairo Yáñez in Cúcuta and Carlos Mario Marín in Manizales marked this turning point. None had been in electoral politics for more than four years, none had the support of a traditional party, and several defeated candidates who followed that mold.
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This Sunday, however, only a few strong candidates arrive with the same brand. In the same five cities, the top candidates in the polls come from or have strong alliances with traditional sectors. In each case they are the former Senator for Radical Change, Carlos Fernando Galán; former mayor and former presidential candidate Federico Gutiérrez; former governor Dumek Turbay, cousin of liberal senator Lidio García; former city councilor Leonardo Jácome, supported by former mayor Ramiro Suárez, who was convicted of murder; and former mayor and former minister Jorge Eduardo Rojas.
However, victories like Yáñez’s in the polls in 2019 were not predictable. In these and other cities there are candidates with the brand of alternatives like Judith Pinedo in Cartagena, but with the rejection of a recent past that in many places means alternative administrations; The likelihood of such surprises seems lower than it did four years ago.
The strength of local machines
While the brand of alternativeness has lost its appeal, that of a career politician with a machine behind him, usually run by a congressman (or with a congressman who is a candidate’s godson), seems less problematic. This is particularly true of governorships, whose relevance to many citizens is unclear due to their limited functions and funding sources. In departments such as Cundinamarca, Bolívar, Valle del Cauca, Tolima, Magdalena or Cesar, everything is aimed at keeping the political group that has been in power for four years. The same applies to mayors like those of Armenia or Barranquilla.
In other departments, where the electoral campaign is more open, there are clashes between two machines or alliances of structures of this type, as is the case in Córdoba, Santander or Meta. Something similar happens in different capitals, from Riohacha to Pereira, via Sincelejo or Neiva.
With the weakening of the party system due to the multiplication of legal entities to 37, the power of each individual winner becomes even stronger as the political connection becomes more personalized, as expert Elisabeth Ungar explains.
The change in balance towards the government
Renewing local and regional leadership means resetting relations with national government.
One obvious result will be that the ruling historical pact will not achieve major victories. Not only does she have few viable candidates, but her great commitment to the administration of the country’s capital also seems difficult (“In the office of the mayor of Bogotá we risk the survival of the Historical Pact,” emphasized his candidate Gustavo Bolívar, second in office the ballot boxes and for whom he has only a remote chance of being elected). He has viable candidates for the governorships of Córdoba and Nariño, a left-wing ally in Magdalena and options for mayor of Villavicencio. Given the low strength of leadership positions, the growth of councils and assemblies does not promise a significant change in the local political balance.
What may vary is the relationship between local structures, which include leaders and congressmen of the same group, and the government, in ways that remain to be seen. On the one hand, some experts and politicians believe that the new leaders will turn to the government for resources and support for their projects and that this will give Gustavo Petro more space to implement his reforms in Congress. On the other hand, others understand that to the extent that the congressmen of these structures have guaranteed local power and presidential approval remains low, they have a guaranteed power base beyond Petro’s four-year term and it is more profitable for them to move away from one unpopular government.
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