In speeches and media appearances, Republican governors have criticized President Biden for policies that they say are destroying the U.S. economy as a whole. But in particular—in their own fortunes, in other words—the economy is flourishing.
Somehow, in states as diverse as Maryland, Florida, Massachusetts, and Arizona, Republican governors assume they have found the magic formula to spur rapid growth and reduce unemployment at home.
Take, for example, these remarks from several governors’ annual state of the art addresses this year:
“Our national economy is struggling,” Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt said before continuing, “As unemployment soared in some parts of the country, we have it down to 2.3 percent.”
“Job creation in Florida far exceeds the national average,” said Ron DeSantis of Florida. “And our workforce was growing six times faster than the country.”
“We have the unemployment rate below 4 percent for the first time since March 2020, and we have returned more than half a million jobs,” said Charlie Baker of Massachusetts.
“Our economic recovery is one of the best in America, our unemployment rate is the lowest since it was before the pandemic, and a national poll named Maryland the most business-friendly state in America,” said Larry Hogan of Maryland. .
Economists say it’s not easy to separate state performance from country performance, let alone attribute those results to any particular move by the governor. Nevada, for example, has been particularly hard hit by the pandemic due to its heavy reliance on tourism.
“Presidents have less to do with the economy than people think, and the same goes for governors,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
According to Adam Kamins, senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, in Republican-led states, employment rates are rebounding faster after emerging from the pandemic. But he added that deeper structural issues — demographic patterns, housing affordability — have played a bigger role in sustaining growth in states like Idaho and Utah than any specific policy.
“You’re definitely seeing stronger job growth in Republican-controlled states,” Cummins said. “But correlation is not causation.”
Kamins noted in one analysis that among the rapidly recovering states was North Carolina, which has a Democratic governor.
Republicans see things differently. Seventeen of the 20 lowest unemployment states as of January are run by Republicans, said Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the Republican Governors Association.
“It’s not a coincidence,” Hunt said. “They made conservative policy decisions that allowed their states to recover faster from the pandemic than Democratic-led states.”
During the pandemic, governors have certainly traded off the health of their populations and economic growth, said David Cooper, an economist at the leftist Economic Policy Institute. Cooper noted that seven of the 10 states with the highest per capita Covid-19 death rates, including Oklahoma, have Republican governors.
Is this really a win? Cooper asked.
Others point out that infusions of federal money during the coronavirus pandemic, such as the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan, have much more to do with saving states from economic disaster than anything individual governors have done.
“In fact, it is crazy to say: “Our policy is good. They are bad. We have really low unemployment and really high inflation compared to the rest of the country where unemployment is just low and inflation is just high,” said Betsy Stevenson, who has been a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers since 2013. until 2015.
Several economists we spoke with said that luck played a major role in how badly a particular state was hit by the pandemic — a complex equation that was influenced by demographics, population density and industry structure.
One economist likened politicians’ claims about the impact on the economic trajectory to “cockcrow at dawn”.
“Washington at its worst”
Republican governors have also been happy to promote specific investments made possible by the American Bailout Plan, Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic bailout package passed last March without stating the original source of the money.
DeSantis, for example, said the plan was “Washington at its worst.” But he later spoke about his proposal for a $1 billion gas tax exemption, as well as bonuses for teachers and first responders, all dependent on federal funds. On Wednesday, he reported nearly $300 million in education spending without mentioning that the money came from Washington.
Florida’s budget received billions from the bailout alone: $8.8 billion in state and local budget recovery funds, $2.47 billion in child care stabilization and additional funds, $703.8 million in K-education funding $12 and $740.5 million in emergency rental assistance. Cities and towns in Florida also received $7.11 billion to help close holes left in their budgets by the pandemic, as well as $6.33 billion in education funding and another half a billion dollars in rental assistance.
The picture is similar in other red states:
In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds boasted of her state’s investments in broadband, housing, and water quality, all part of the bailout plan.
Christy Noem, the governor of South Dakota, used money from the rescue package to pay for water projects, housing affordability and day care programs.
And Hogan, the governor of Maryland, talked about federal crime-fighting programs funded by the bailout plan, even though he said he would have voted against it.
“This is absurd on several levels,” said Dean Baker, an economist at the left-wing Center for Economic and Policy Research. “To discard politics and then enjoy its benefits is a pretty high level of hypocrisy.”
Republicans see no contradiction between receiving federal funds and simultaneously criticizing legislation. Some say they had no choice but to accept money that would otherwise be sent back to the Treasury Department. They also complained that the Democrats’ decision to allocate bailout funds based on the state’s unemployed population rather than its total population was unfairly penalizing red states.
Fed gets voting rights
Democrats have been pushing for Biden to take more credit for the economic recovery, hoping it will help them in the November election.
They got their wish during the president’s recent address to Congress when he said, “Our economy created more than 6.5 million new jobs last year alone, more jobs created in one year than at any time in American history. calling it “the strongest growth in almost 40 years”.
The U.S. economy did indeed grow rapidly in the last three months of 2021—almost 7 percent—and the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent.
But this may change soon.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve predicted a sharp slowdown in the US economy this year, announcing plans to raise interest rates to fight rising inflation – a reminder that policymakers should be wary of borrowing on economic conditions that can change quickly.
“This is a much bigger issue than a single governor or even a president can handle, and how they can influence is not all that popular,” said Stevenson, a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers.
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Trump changes tone
Just a few weeks ago, Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin a quick-witted genius. But the former president now sees things a little differently.
In an interview published Tuesday night in The Washington Examiner, Trump said he was expecting a “good deal” from Putin, not an invasion of Ukraine. He expressed his disappointment with Putin’s decision, saying that the Russian president has changed.
Trump’s rejection of Putin comes as the country rallies around Ukraine. In Washington, members of Congress held back tears as Zelenskiy of Ukraine pleaded for further assistance and debated all day about what action to take.
And public opinion continues to show widespread support for sanctions against Russia by Democrats, Republicans and independents. Monmouth University released a poll on Wednesday that showed nearly 90 percent of Americans believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unjustified.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.
— Blake and Leah
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