Today, Russia fires an average of 10,000 large-caliber cannon shells, while Ukraine responds with fewer than 2,000. Kiev soldiers and officers: “The enemies are now shooting much more than us, we can no longer advance and even defending is becoming more and more difficult.”
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
KIEV – “Ammunition, ammunition and more ammunition.” Over the past month, we have constantly asked Ukrainian soldiers and officers on the battlefields in Donbass what is the key factor that gives the Russians an advantage. And the answer was the same everywhere: “The enemies are now shooting much more than us, we are no longer making any progress and defending is becoming more and more difficult.”
The twenty or so officers of the third and one hundred and tenth brigades with whom we spoke in the rear of Mirnograd, who had just withdrawn from the fortified town of Avdiivka after a battle that had made it increasingly difficult since mid-October, were specific in the enumeration of the Needs of their army: “For every one of our 155-millimeter cannon shots, the Russians fired about twenty. Our artillery can no longer cover us. There is a lack of drones, of shots for heavy mortars, of tanks, we have no anti-aircraft missiles.” The problem is pressing, especially after the halt of the $61 billion in American military aid that Biden had provided since October and that Congress had ordered Trump's Republicans blocked.
Today, the Russians fire an average of 10,000 large-caliber cannon shells every day, while the Ukrainians respond with fewer than 2,000. A dramatic increase: last summer there were 7,000 Ukrainians and 5,000 Russians. And the outlook is bleak. Putin has now imposed a war economy, with 7.5% of the state budget going towards weapons. British experts have called it the “Kalashnikov economy,” employing over 3.5 million workers, equivalent to 2.5% of the population. There are entire provinces in Asian Russia that are enriched by the arms industry. The results are visible: in 2023 they produced a million heavy projectiles; This year they will produce a third more and are aiming for 4 million in 2024. Last year they were building 6 Iskander 9M723 missiles a month, today they seem to have doubled, with the reserve increasing from 50 to 200. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington estimates that if the ammunition shortage continues, the Ukrainian army might be able to hold out until the end of spring, but then the situation would become truly dramatic.
It is no coincidence that the Kiev government has been turning to its European allies since the beginning of the year as it continues to put pressure on the White House. The issue dominated the Munich Security Conference about ten days ago, where Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that the EU must organize itself to “stop Putin from winning the war.” His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, is once again portraying the Ukrainian trenches as the first common line of defense against the Putin dictatorship's westward advance, an argument that has gained strength with Navalny's death. “Every time the Ukrainians leave a city because they have no ammunition, you think that the Russians are a little closer to threatening your soldiers and children,” he repeats.
And the European answer is coming anyway. Slowly, sometimes in no particular order, but nonetheless it shows a new determination. In Kiev, Ukrainian leaders themselves note that Germany, which was the most reluctant to take sides at the beginning of the war, has today become the first European partner. This is shown, among other things, by the 1.2 million euros bilaterally guaranteed by Olaf Scholz for artillery howitzers. Josep Borrell also got involved and, in a message to European diplomats, reiterated the need to send the largest possible amount of ammunition. “Dig your reserves, award new orders to European industries if possible, otherwise buy them on the open market or finance the Ukrainian defense industry,” writes the head of the EU foreign policy. And he welcomes the initiative of the Czech Republic, which, together with other countries, has allocated 1.5 billion euros for the purchase of ammunition outside European markets, regardless of origin. What is important is that Ukrainians can use them immediately.
The Europeans have not kept their promise to send 1.15 million heavy howitzers by March: half of them are arriving, but they are trying to double this by December.
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February 23, 2024 (modified February 23, 2024 | 11:38 p.m.)
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