The lockout imposed by the owner of Major League Baseball is finally over, 99 days after it was first introduced. It’s a happy day for baseball fans, who won’t have much time before turning their attention to another pressing issue in the sport: MLB free agency. The off-season, paused from December 2, will now be allowed to resume. Free agents are expected to be able to start signing deals again on Thursday night.
In the first half of the winter, seven of CBS Sports’ top 10 free agents retired from the board. In case you forgot three months later, this included the Texas Rangers, who added Corey Seeger and Marcus Semien; Seattle Mariners paint current American League Award winner Cy Young Robbie Ray; New York Mets took Max Scherzer and Starling Marte; Toronto Blue Jays lassoed Kevin Gausman; and the Chicago Cubs signed Marcus Stroman.
Despite all this activity, there are still a few stars who need to find new homes before opening day. Below we have offered predictions of where the top 10 remaining free agents might end up signing. (Note that earlier we tried to guess which contracts the same 10 players would get.) While this is a silly exercise, it’s also welcome after the tedious work of the past few months.
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Now that the heat and fluff are out of the way, let’s move on to the predictions.
There are a lot of teams that really match Correa’s needs. The Yankees, it would seem, are alone. It doesn’t hurt that they have a clear need for high-performing talent. Yes, New York has some promising prospects on the field, including former first-round pick Anthony Volpe, but there are no rules against having too many good players — at least until the next round of CBA talks.
2. Chris Bryant (3rd on Top 50): Mariners
The Mariners have been open in their desire to add a right-handed hitter who can play third base. Bryant notes these and other points. His ability to play other positions, including first base and outfield, and his reputation as a good club representative should also make him an attractive target.
Going into the off-season, Freeman seemed confident that he would stay with the Braves. It’s unclear if he will now, making him one of the biggest X factors left on the market. Where Freeman’s signs might indicate where Correa would land, as well as where Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson would end up. The Dodgers, who lost Corey Seeger to free agency, were known to be interested in Freeman before the lockout. He would give them another elite level talent and he would fit in perfectly thanks to their versatile lineup.
The Astros cannot reasonably expect Jeremy Peña to be ready to take on the shortstop position until later this year. Thus, it would make sense for them to lasso Story on a short-term arrangement. Appraisers have concerns about the strength of his hands and long-term protection, which could lower his asking price. However, he will likely remain a dynamic offensive player wherever he finds himself on defense, and joining the Astros will give him a chance to shine in the playoffs that he didn’t often get in Colorado.
Castellanos’ landing point is difficult to determine. He has expressed disinterest in becoming a DH, which limits his potential suitors. The power of his bat is such that someone will likely calm him down and allow him to continue playing defense. The inclusion of Castellanos in a lineup that already has Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins could be a treat for Philadelphia fans.
6. Seiya Suzuki (#15 in Top 50): Giants
Suzuki’s ball-tracking data from last season in Japan suggests he could be a striker due to a combination of power and contact. The Giants could use that kind of star power if they want to be National League West champions again. Expect the Red Sox, Rangers and others to bid for Suzuki, who could be one of the biggest players this winter.
7. Clayton Kershaw (#16 Top 50): Rangers
We predicted that the Rangers would sign Kershaw at the start of the offseason, and we’re sticking with it. In the past few years, there have been rumors that Kershaw wants to move closer to home. The Rangers, the closest team geographically, have also shown a willingness to throw money around this winter. Take into account their need for serving, and this combination makes sense beyond being easy to copy.
8. Kenley Jansen (#20 Top 50): Dodgers
The Dodgers retained only one of their key free agents before the lockout, signing Chris Taylor to a multi-year contract. Of the remaining stars, Jansen seems more likely than Kershaw to book a return ticket to Los Angeles. He’s the best reliever left on the open market, and he could come back in the ninth inning, pushing Blake Trainen to the eighth and adding a free agent. Daniel Hudson is in seventh place.
9. Anthony Rizzo (#22 on Top 50): Red Sox
Last summer, Rizzo survived half of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. Perhaps he would be interested in switching sides and returning to his original organization? The Red Sox used Kyle Schwarber at first base last season. Rizzo is unlikely to match Schwarber’s offensive power, but defensively he will represent an improvement. Where exactly it lands will depend on the Freeman and Olson markets.
Conforto, who unexpectedly turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets, was rumored in the industry that he was of interest to the Marlins prior to the lockout. It’s unclear if Miami will continue to bid for his services, but he’ll still look like a good fit from here. Remember, he was a well above average hitter for four straight years at the start of last season. Players with this set production level are rarely available to the Marlins, especially when they are in their 20s.