Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is a guest at the next Arab League summit scheduled for May 19 in Saudi Arabia. Something that was unthinkable just a few months ago.
The Syrian President’s participation honors his return to his Arab counterparts after more than 11 years of isolation. The invitation comes after Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League on Sunday, May 7, from which it was expelled in 2011 after a popular uprising that degenerated into civil war.
To understand what is at stake in this reversal, what is happening in the region and the reasons behind this rapprochement with Syria, France 24 interviewed Fabrice Balanche, lecturer at Lyon 2 and specialist in geopolitics in the Middle East.
France 24: How important is Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League? ? What this decision can change diplomatically for Bashar al-Assad ?
Fabric Balance: It is symbolic mainly because the Arab League does not have exceptional decision-making powers. The reinstatement will remove all obstacles to the reopening of the Arab embassies in Damascus and the Syrian embassies in Arab League countries. Even if the final decision and timetable is up to each individual Member State and there are differences in this area. The United Arab Emirates had already relocated their embassy in 2018, and Saudi Arabia has just announced that it will open its diplomatic mission in Syria. For Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain and Tunisia, this shouldn’t take long. But Qatar [qui a soutenu les rebelles syriens] should take his time.
In any case, for Bashar al-Assad it is a major diplomatic victory that will restore Syria to its place in the Arab world, which will facilitate official meetings. This is important because politics in the Arab world is very much about personal relationships. The key lies in the question of participation in the reconstruction of Syria.
In fact, this also leads to the burial of the Syrian opposition, even though it occupied Syria’s seat during the 2013 Arab League conference in Doha. With this decision by the league, they are being marginalized. For this reason, the Syrian opponents are fighting against this reintegration. Without forgetting that it is also a question of money because so far they have benefited from a financial windfall from the Gulf States, which will no longer be the case.
This decision also comes against the background of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Does this explain the Arab League’s about-face with Syria?
Saudi Arabia, with the support of the United Arab Emirates, initiated the reintegration of Syria into the Arab League, and the other Arab League countries followed suit. Riyadh’s recent rapprochement with Tehran under China’s aegis explains this decision.
If the Saudis decided that, it was a gesture towards Iran – an ally of Damascus. Behind the scenes, the deal works as follows: On the one hand, it is about ceding the field to the Iranians in Syria by ceasing support for the Syrian opposition. And on the other hand, Iran promises to calm the situation in Yemen and the Houthis [alliés chiites des Iraniens] Stop firing missiles at Saudi Arabia. The Saudis needed this rediscovered security in their kingdom to provide ideal conditions for the economic investments they desired [le prince héritier] Mohammed Bin Salman [homme fort de Riyad].
There is another unsaid. The problem of the Kapitagon is of particular concern to Arab countries. In just a few years, Syria has become a drug state. The production of this synthetic drug, which causes burns in youth and is sold throughout the Arab world, particularly in the Gulf countries with high purchasing power, is estimated at 5 to 10 billion dollars. To combat this traffic it is necessary to attack production. And we suspect that Bashar al-Assad and the regime’s barons are behind this staging. To stop this traffic, you need to offer them another activity. The reconstruction of Syria and the Gulf countries’ investment in Bashar al-Assad’s real estate projects are aimed at stopping or at least reducing the production of this drug.
Did Bashar al-Assad take advantage of the earthquake that devastated northern Syria to regain access? ?
The process of rapprochement with Damascus was already underway, led by the United Arab Emirates. But the earthquake has highlighted the dire situation of the Syrian people under international sanctions and the state of the country’s reconstruction, which is not moving forward. He questioned the usefulness of the sanctions that hit the Syrian people and do not prevent Bashar al-Assad from staying in power.
The European Union and the United States have suspended their financial sanctions against Syria for several months and may be renewed. These sanctions blocked humanitarian aid from many NGOs and reconstruction, slowing down entrepreneurs who wanted to reinvest in Syria. Given the humanitarian situation that will not improve, it is difficult to imagine how they can restore it.
Under the pretext of the earthquake, the Arab countries again began discussing with the Syrian officials without losing face. It can be said that this catastrophe accelerated the process of Syria’s rehabilitation within the Arab League.
For the first time since 2011, the foreign ministers of Turkey and Syria met in Moscow on May 10. Is Bashar al-Assad able to rebuild his ties with other countries? ?
The process of rapprochement with Turkey is taking place in parallel and under the aegis of Russia, which has advocated rapprochement with Erdogan since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
As for the West, for the United States, Syria is no longer so much on their agenda. Events in Syria worry Europeans because migration from that country has immediate repercussions, as does the problem of terrorism. As a reminder, there are still several hundred European jihadists in the country, and a new generation of jihadists is emerging in the Northeast.
Despite everything, the EU does not want to normalize its relations with Bashar al-Assad for reasons of human rights and war crimes. But we still see European countries that are at the forefront of the migration wave and want to rejoin Syria with a purely realistic approach, like Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania or even Cyprus. Denmark is also promoting normalization with clear gestures. The Danish Migration Office therefore estimated in 2020 that the situation in Damascus was “sufficiently stable” to allow the return of Syrian refugees.