Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly considering running on a third-party ticket rather than as a Democrat. This is a dramatic move that could hurt Joe Biden’s chances in 2024 and help Donald Trump.
The controversial scion of the political dynasty released a video on Friday warning of a “fundamental shift in American politics,” making clear that he will continue the race as an independent.
The 69-year-old said he would no longer abide by “corrupt rules” and wanted to “rewrite the assumptions and change the habits of American politics.”
The conspiracy theorist’s move will cause panic among Democrats as it is widely expected that a third-party candidate will take votes away from Biden if he finds himself in a rematch with Trump.
Biden advisers are reportedly worried about how an alternative candidate to Biden and Trump could ease the path to a Republican victory.
Kate deGruyter, a strategist at Third Way, told that Kennedy’s decision would have the same consequences for the race.
She said Trump’s base is “shockingly engaged” while Biden “has more soft partisans and independent voters in his coalition.”
“Any third-party candidacy – whether No Labels or RFK – that splits Biden’s coalition and lowers the ceiling for Trump would help re-elect Trump,” they added.
Kennedy will reinforce these fears with a major announcement on October 9 in Philadelphia.
His campaign plans to run “attack ads” against the Democratic National Committee, Mediaite reported.
When reached out to the Kennedy campaign for comment, they sent a link to the video.
“How can we win against established Washington interests?” says the 69-year-old in the video.
“It is not about playing the game by the corrupt rules that the corrupt powers and interests have manipulated to keep us all in their grip.”
“Instead, we must rewrite the assumptions and change the habits of American politics.”
He has struggled to get above 20 percent in the polls, but winning just a few thousand votes in the general election could spell disaster for the president.
Kennedy has been notoriously skeptical of vaccines and recently sparked outrage when he claimed that COVID was “ethnically targeted” so that Chinese and Jews would have more immunity.
The controversial scion of the political dynasty released a video on Friday in which he strongly suggested that he would bring about a “fundamental change in American politics” and continue the race as an independent
But he still has a group of loyal supporters, and Biden’s poor approval ratings have sparked calls for an open primary.
“What I understood after six months of campaigning: There is a path to victory,” he added. He then mentions that he believes in the “goodness” of the American people.
No Labels has not yet endorsed a candidate, but they have a $70 million war chest to promote anyone they would put on the ticket.
Anti-racism activist Cornel West is running as the Green Party candidate and the group No Labels has also sparked speculation that they will enter the race.
Five polls since the end of May show when a third candidate will be added: Trump gained ground and usually took the lead.
For example, an Emerson poll found that Trump and Biden were in a dead heat of 45 percent. But when West is included, Biden’s support drops to 42 percent, while Trump is at 42 percent.
As in 2020, Biden will need a larger share of independent and moderate voters to win in 2024.
There are fears that the entry of a third party could have the same impact that Jill Stein had on the 2016 election, where she likely received key votes from Hillary Clinton in her race against Trump.
A third-party candidate has never won a general election and rarely receives more than 1 percent of the vote, but he has acted as a spoilsport.
In 1912, third-party candidate Theodore Roosevelt came second in the presidential race.
Since then, only nine times has a third-party candidate received more than 5 percent of the popular vote or one Electoral College vote.
The conspiracy theorist’s move will cause panic among Democrats as it is widely expected that a third-party candidate will take votes away from Biden if he finds himself in a rematch with Trump
With the 2024 election expected to be as close as it was in 2020, a third candidate receiving a few thousand votes in one of the swing states could influence the outcome.
In 2020, seven states were decided by less than three points. Biden won six of these states.
If a candidate like Kennedy were successful in one of these states, he would likely take votes away from Biden and give Trump an advantage.
A Center for Progress poll also showed Biden leading Trump in a two-way race. But when the moderate Larry Hogan came along, Biden and Trump ended up tied.
This is evidence that a candidate to the left of Trump is taking votes from Biden.
Hogan, along with moderate Democrat Joe Manchin, have been mentioned as potential candidates for No Labels.