FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
BEIRUT – The enemy of my enemy is my friend. But this is not always the case in the Middle East either. Yesterday in Beirut, at the funeral of Sheikh Al Arouri, a senior Hamas member killed by three Israeli rockets, there were dozens of Hamas flags, some representing Fatah, the rival Palestinian faction, and none, not even one, Hezbollah. It was a Sunni ceremony in a Sunni mosque in a Sunni neighborhood. Hezbollah's Shiites, which also hosted Al Arouri in their quadrant of the Lebanese capital, had only two officials present. But in his speech on Wednesday, Lebanese Shiite leader Hassan Nasrallah thundered. Every time Nasrallah opens his mouth, Lebanon trembles. There are fears that he will declare war to save the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, take advantage of the dispersal of Israeli forces and ultimately focus on Jerusalem. In the rhetoric of “resistance to the Zionist entity” and “martyrdom for the liberation of Al-Quds” (Jerusalem), it would be a coherent decision. Instead, even after Al Arouri's death, Nasrallah hesitates: “Retribution will come,” but not immediately. Translated, Al Arouri is not worth war. Just like bloody Israeli revenge in Gaza. Hezbollah has expressed solidarity with Hamas but has limited bombings within 10 kilometers of its border. Basically, Nasrallah has not wanted to expand the conflict. Why?
There is a military argument and a political argument. Two American aircraft carriers sailing off its shores were certainly an excellent deterrent. US support for Israel in the event of open conflict would have left the powerful Hezbollah with no way out. The 150,000 Lebanese rockets would cause great damage to Tel Aviv, but the Israeli Air Force would level Beirut, just as it is already doing to Gaza. War can be waged if someone pays for the damage and Lebanon doesn't have the money to rebuild. Israel could economically afford a war in the north, but according to the Guardian, the US has intervened twice since October 7 to stop a pre-emptive attack by Israel against Hezbollah.
Ideology and solidarity are not enough when the Lebanese state coffers are empty and the economic crisis is very deep. Tehran has made it clear that it cannot finance anything. So? Discuss better. The tension subsides and one of the two American aircraft carriers leaves the area.
The hope of the Lebanese Shiite movement is to finally emerge from this crisis with international recognition and legitimacy. He already has the majority in parliament to be able to elect one of his men (Suleiman Frangieh) as president. But it would be useless. Together with the office, economic change is necessary. Diplomats informed of the negotiations explain to the Courier that Hezbollah is demanding an end to the international embargo and the return of investments from the Gulf states in exchange for peace.
France (former colonial power) is at the forefront. President Macron told Israel: “It is important to avoid a provocative stance, especially in Lebanon.” Tel Aviv wants to restore peace on the northern border to focus on the Palestinians. For security reasons, it calls for demilitarization south of the Litani River, as called for by UN Resolution 1701. Hezbollah officially claims disputed areas such as Shebaa Farms, but under the table there are other claims like this.
At the end of November, Jean-Yves Le Drian, Macron's envoy, and Bernard Emier, head of the Paris secret service, stopped in Beirut. They received confirmation of a Christian, Joseph Aoun, as commander of the Lebanese army. However, it all depends on the “indispensable nation,” the United States, because it is up to Washington to decide how much it will pay for peace. The report is entrusted to Amos Hochstein, whom President Joe Biden sent to Beirut on Wednesday and to Jerusalem yesterday to “help reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.”
Peace in exchange for rebirth. Nasrallah wants Lebanon to emerge from economic asphyxiation, a goal that is far from the rhetoric of fanaticism and, if desired, understandable even in the West.