Parallel to the presidential elections, the 500 deputies to the National Assembly and the representatives of the 26 provincial parliaments in the country with around 96 million inhabitants will also be elected. After years of dictatorship and civil war, only three national elections were held (2006, 2011 and 2018).
More than 900 parties are running for elections in a country where, on the one hand, two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line and, on the other hand, is home to some of the regions with the most natural resources in the world. Many of these minerals are needed for cell phones and electric cars.
In particular, the export of mineral resources such as copper, cobalt, coltan and gold are of great importance for the country's economy. In addition to immense reserves of raw materials, DR Congo is also home to the second largest contiguous area of tropical forest in the world, which is increasingly falling victim to global deforestation.
Agreement with predecessor in office
During the election, the focus is mainly on the duel for the presidency. The current president, Tshisekedi, is running for re-election after being declared the winner by the electoral commission in 2018, following an extremely controversial decision.
The Catholic Bishops' Conference, which is normally more present in the country's civil society than the central government, arrived at a completely different result – in contrast to the official one – which saw competitor Martin Fayulu as the clear winner with over 60 per cent and Tshisekedi with just 19 percent.
APAZ/AFP/John Wessels Incumbent Felix Tshisekedi was narrowly declared president in a controversial decision in 2018
Many observers believed that Tshisekedi's appointment was the result of collusion between him and his predecessor Joseph Kabila. Because of this, the CENI electoral commission (French: Commission electorale Nationale Independante) will be under close observation during Wednesday's elections; Elections are seen as a critical test for democracy.
Expert sees duel
In addition to Tshisekedi, the then officially defeated candidate, Fayulu, as well as dozens of other candidates, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, are also running in Wednesday's elections. According to Martin Doevenspeck, professor of Political Geography at the Geographic Institute of the University of Bayreuth, only Moise Katumbi, businessman and former governor of the rich province of Katanga, in the south of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has promising maps.
Portal/Arlette Bashizi Moise Katumbi is, according to many observers, Tshisekedi's most likely opponent
Speaking to ORF.at, the expert sees a duel between current President Tshisekedi and Katumbi. This is also “a confrontation between two provinces and two ethnic groups”. On one side Katanga, where the challenger comes from, and on the other side Kasai province, where the current president comes from. Due to his current position and position of power, Tshisekedi is favored by many. Since a constitutional change in 2011, a simple majority has been sufficient for victory.
Weak economic growth
From an economic point of view, the country has been in a terrible situation recently. On the Human Development Index (HDI), the Democratic Republic of Congo ranks 179th out of 191. Doevenspeck sees several factors as responsible. On the one hand, the devaluation of the Congolese franc against the dollar has serious consequences for the population of Congo.
The Congolese receive their salaries in the local currency, but they have to pay their expenses in dollars. And, on the other hand, DR Congo suffered last year from weak growth in the mining sector, which is so important for DR Congo.
Election campaign without programs
Despite the bad economic situation, little is said about electoral programs during the election campaign. Instead, the two leading candidates would just insult each other. “There is no political project to talk about”, says the expert. President Tshisekedi would accuse Katumbi of being a foreign candidate – especially from his eastern neighbor Rwanda. And Katumbi himself accuses the president of having nothing to show after his term.
APA/AFP/John Wessels There are more and more candidate election posters in big cities
But hatred among the population also increased significantly. The EU expressed concern about the situation in DR Congo on Tuesday. The “hate speech, violence and incidents in the final days of the election campaign” were worrying, he said. According to the UN, serious human rights violations have also been recorded and must be investigated and prosecuted.
Last month, the EU also canceled the planned deployment of election observers for “technical” reasons. According to reports, Congolese authorities banned observers from using satellite equipment because they allegedly feared the technology would be used to manipulate the presidential elections.
Focal point in the east
The situation is particularly worrying in the east of the country. The densely populated North Kivu province has been the focus of a conflict for about three decades that appears to have been all but forgotten. The resurgence of the Tutsi rebel movement M23, which is believed to be supported by neighboring Rwanda, as well as the constant expansion of the area under its control make holding elections practically impossible in many places. In fact, there is martial law there.
In the cities of Rutshuru and Masisi, north of the provincial capital, Goma, 1.5 million people will not be able to vote in Wednesday's elections because the M23 controls them and therefore they cannot be held there. But many people in the rest of the country are also categorically excluded from elections, as Doevenspeck says. “Voter cards, some of which also function as identification cards, are disappearing and many are no longer readable.” And many would no longer receive new identification cards, according to the expert.
Depending on the election results, it could be weeks or months before the Democratic Republic of Congo has a new president. But despite all the crises and violence, the expert also sees hope in a better future for the country and points to a strong civil society. This would organize itself well, demand changes and defend them.