Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton reckons the Securities and Exchange Commission’s chance of a win against Ripple is less than 3% as the end of the long-running legal battle nears.
The founder of CryptoLaw has been a vocal supporter of Ripple against the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of its XRP (XRP) token constituted an unregistered securities offering.
In a June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton said he estimates there is a 25 percent chance that presiding US District Judge Torres will rule in favor of Ripple and a 50 percent chance that Ripple will be defeated by a “cleavage of the baby” wins the victory ” verdict.
This is in reference to Judge Torres “drawing a line in the sand” on where she could potentially rule that XRP was offered as an unregistered security prior to 2018. However, according to the Hinman documents — which refer to internal SEC filings related to a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman — it’s possible that cryptocurrencies could go from securities to commodities once they’re sufficiently decentralized.
“I think that XRP itself is not considered a security and that the sales in the secondary market make a comment in my opinion.” Even if [Judge Torres] “If Ripple is found to have broken the law, this does not apply to sales on the secondary market,” Deaton explained.
While Ripple executives, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted an imminent end to the SEC’s roller coaster lawsuit, Deaton stressed that Judge Torres will most likely make a final decision before September 30 of this year.
Deaton drew attention to a so-called “six-month list” that district judges must submit to Congress. The list lists all summary judgments that are pending for more than six months. Release occurs on the last day of March and the last day of September.
“She [Judge Torres] was never on this list. It’s like a public shame list that says, ‘Look, I suck at my job.'”
In addition, Deaton also gave his predictions for the price of Ripple’s native XRP token after a positive verdict.
“I definitely think somewhere $2 and $10 think it’s reasonable.”
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Speaking to Cointelegraph on May 22, Deaton said the Ripple community should also keep a close eye on June 13, when investors will find out if XRP was indeed discussed “among SEC officials ahead of the Hinman speech.” On that date, the Hinman materials will most likely be unsealed and could have drastic implications for the case.
There are also rumors circulating that Ripple could potentially go public once the litigation is over.
According to a June 2 report tweet Ripple hosted a “roadshow” hosted by Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, where it met with underwriters and other investors to generate interest in a potential IPO.
Crypto Twitter Hall of Flame: Pro-XRP Advocate John Deaton “10x more in BTC, 4x more in ETH.”