- The chance of a revival of the nuclear deal with Iran seems slim
- A failure of the talks could trigger a new regional war
- Tehran wants to keep the diplomatic ball rolling
- Israel and the Gulf States share concerns about Tehran’s nuclear works
- Differences remain over assurances, sanctions
DUBAI, July 1 (Reuters) – The specter of a nascent Arab-Israeli bloc that could push the Middle East power balance further away from Iran is driving the Islamic Republic to pursue nuclear talks with world powers with renewed determination, officials and analysts said.
Indirect talks in Qatar between Tehran and Washington over salvaging a 2015 nuclear pact ended Wednesday with no progress. Iran questioned the resolve of the United States, and Washington urged Tehran to drop additional demands.
But the difficulties of the talks have not discouraged Iran, two officials and a politician, all Iranians, told Reuters, adding that the Iranian establishment is keen on diplomacy.
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A deal would result in a lifting of the sanctions that have shackled its economy, eventually boosting oil exports to the estimated 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) shipped before sanctions were reinstated, from less than a million currently .
For Iran, the unfavorable alternative could be war in a region where geopolitical shifts could develop into a US-led alliance hostile to Tehran, the officials and politicians said.
Growing concerns about the warming of relations between Israel and its former Arab enemies, including normalization agreements between Israel and some Arab nations known as the Abraham Accords, have pushed Tehran to keep the diplomatic ball rolling.
“The region is changing, alliances are changing. Israel is normalizing relations with Arab countries and the Americans are supporting all these developments,” said a senior Iranian official close to Iran’s top decision-makers.
“These are serious threats that must be thwarted. Our enemies are praying to God for an end to the nuclear talks. But it won’t happen.”
To keep the talks alive, almost two weeks ahead of US President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran agreed to hold the talks in Doha to find a diplomatic solution to the impasse. Continue reading
“The message of the Doha meeting to the Persian Gulf countries was simple: Contrary to what Israel claims, Iran believes in diplomacy as the solution to all problems, from nuclear to regional and beyond,” a said other Iranian official.
After the Doha talks fizzled out, diplomats said there would be more “talks about talks”.
AIR DEFENSE ALLIANCE
“There is a real price to explaining failure. And that price inevitably rises with every attempted (and failed) diplomatic foray as the prospects for an agreement diminish and the temptation of a risky, confrontational alternative grows,” said Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Israel is building a US-sponsored regional air defense alliance, Israel’s defense minister said this month, adding that the apparatus has already thwarted attempted Iranian attacks.
Israel has in recent years drawn rapprochement with US-allied Arab states, which fear Iran could become a new regional hegemon hostile to their interests, and has offered defense cooperation.
Washington hopes that more cooperation would further integrate Israel into the region. It could also herald further normalization with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, following the 2020 Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
It is widely believed to have the only nuclear weapons in the Middle East, which however sees Iran as an existential threat. Israel has threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
For its part, Iran will seek to weaken any regional anti-Tehran bloc, said Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain’s Chatham House, adding that it would “seek opportunistic ways to split regional states and infiltrate this alliance if it fails.” should develop”.
Iran has long said its uranium enrichment program, a possible route to nuclear weapons, is for peaceful purposes only and has promised a “crushing response” to any Israeli aggression. Under the 2015 deal, Iran restricted the program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
“NO RUSH”
Ultimately, Tehran wants a “good” deal. But emboldened by high oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran’s hardline leaders are betting that Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear capabilities could pressure Washington to offer concessions.
“We’re in no hurry. With or without a deal, the Islamic Republic will survive. Our nuclear program advances every day. Time is on our side,” said the second officer. “But we want a deal that is 100% in our national interest. We want a good deal.”
The then US President Donald Trump renounced the agreement in 2018 and again imposed US sanctions. In response, Tehran broke the deal in a number of ways, including rebuilding stocks of enriched uranium.
The main outlines of the revived agreement were essentially agreed in Vienna in March after 11 months of indirect talks.
But then the talks collapsed, largely over Tehran’s demand that Washington remove its Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from a US terror list, and the US refusal to do so, arguing that it was outside the scope of a revival of the US agreement.
The IRGC is Iran’s most powerful military force and reports to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Republicans in the United States argue that removing the FTO label would show the Democratic government’s leniency toward terrorism, an accusation US officials deny.
IRGC SANCTIONS
An Iranian and a European official told Reuters the request has now been taken off the table but two issues, including one on sanctions, remain unresolved.
“We have conveyed messages to the Americans through intermediaries that lifting sanctions on the Khatam al-Anbiya construction headquarters is essential to reach an agreement,” said a hard-line Iranian security official who asked not to be named.
The IRGC’s economic arm, Khatam al-Anbiya, controls a vast network of companies ranging from oil and gas to construction.
When asked for comment, a State Department spokesman said, “We do not negotiate publicly and will not respond to speculation about Iran’s positions.”
Vaez said such demands are the clearest sign of Tehran’s inability or unwillingness to understand US political constraints. He said: “Tehran’s call for the lifting of sanctions related to the IRGC faces the same obstacle that faced the Guard’s removal from the FTO.”
Iran, too, wants guarantees that no US president will abandon the deal, as Trump did. But Biden can’t promise that because the nuclear deal is a non-binding political agreement, not a legally binding treaty.
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Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammad and Dephne Psaledakis in Washington; Writing by Parisa Hafezi Edited by Michael Georgy and William Maclean
Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.