Rising seas threaten ‘mass exodus of biblical proportions’, UN chief warns

Accelerating sea level rise threatens “a mass exodus of entire populations of biblical proportions,” warned the UN Secretary-General.

The climate crisis is causing sea levels to rise faster than in 3,000 years, putting nearly a billion people from London to Los Angeles and Bangkok to Buenos Aires in a “storm surge of trouble,” António Guterres said on Tuesday. Some nations could cease to exist and drown under the waves, he said.

Speaking before the UN Security Council, Guterres said there was a need to cut carbon emissions, tackle issues like poverty that exacerbate the impact of sea level rise on communities, and develop new international laws to protect the homeless – and even stateless people . He said sea-level rise is a threat multiplier that is having a “dramatic impact” on global peace and security by damaging lives, economies and infrastructure.

A flooded residential area in Sindh, Pakistan last month.A flooded residential area in Sindh, Pakistan last month. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Significant sea level rise is already inevitable with the current level of global warming, but the consequences of not addressing the problem are “unthinkable”. Guterres said: “Low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear forever. We would see a mass exodus of entire populations of biblical proportions. And we would see ever fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources.

“People’s human rights don’t disappear because their homes disappear,” he said. “Yes, that means international refugee law.”

The International Law Commission examines the legal situation. In 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee ruled that it was unlawful for governments to deport people to countries where their lives could be threatened by the climate crisis.

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A new compilation of data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows that sea levels are rising rapidly and the global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than at any time in the past 11,000 years. Sea levels rise as warmer water expands and ice caps and glaciers melt.

Prof. Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General, said: “Sea-level rise poses short- to long-term risks to economies, livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food and water security, and cultural values.”

Floods in Makassar City, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, on Monday.Floods in Makassar City, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, on Monday. Photo: Moh Niaz Sharief/Zuma Press Wire/Rex/Shutterstock

Guterres said, “Even if global warming is miraculously limited to 1.5°C, there will still be significant sea level rise.” A sea level rise of about 50 cm by 2100 is likely, but the WMO said that there would be an increase of 2 to 3 meters over the next 2,000 years if warming were limited to 1.5 °C and 2 to 6 m if limited to 2 °C. A UN report in October said there was “no credible path to 1.5C”. The current national targets, if met, would mean a temperature increase of 2.4°C.