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At NCAA basketball tournaments, bubble teams desperately try to qualify for the big dance. In baseball, the rhythms are different. Bubble teams must choose between speeding up their dance steps and winning players over to a playoff chase, or exiting the field by swapping pieces.
The return from the All-Star hiatus marks the start of the trading season and the countdown to deadline, which is August 1st this year. According to fangraphs, my six bubble teams have playoff odds between about 10 and 30 percent. The next two weeks will likely determine their respective directions.
The buy-sell calculus is not necessarily either-or; Some teams will do both at the same time. We know who some of the sellers are: The Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers and Pirates; and four clubs with zero percent playoff odds, the Royals, Athletics, Nationals and Rockies. Buyers are pretty obvious too.
The bubble teams are in less defined positions. Your seasons are practically at stake. And the next two weeks are associated with a similar urgency as the candidates in the last two weeks of September.
So, without further ado, here are my uncertain sixes, from lowest to highest playoff rating. The schedules listed are valid until July 30th.
Playoff Odds: 9.6 percent
Time schedule: BOS 3, WAS 3, STL 4, @CWS 2, @STL 4
True, the Cubs are the only team with a plus-run differential in woeful NL Central. They also have the best remaining overall plan in the division, according to Fangraphs calculations. Their chances are slim as they will likely need to win the division to reach the postseason and they are seven games behind the Reds and six behind the Brewers.
Kind of tells you which direction the arrow is pointing, doesn’t it?
Marcus Stroman can terminate his contract at the end of the season. (David Banks / USA Today)
Shortstop Dansby Swanson’s return from a left heel bruise looks imminent; He is eligible to be taken off the injured list on Sunday. Right-hander Marcus Stroman, who skipped the All-Star Game and said he needed a physical break and a mental reset, is scheduled to pitch at Wrigley Field on Saturday.
If the Cubs don’t manage to get hot, their top trades are Stroman, who can leave his contract at the end of the season, and midfielder Cody Bellinger, who has a one-year deal.
Playoff Odds: 10.9 percent
Time schedule: HOU 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, @DET 3, @TOR 3
There is currently a consensus in sport that Angels owner Arte Moreno Shohei Ohtani does not want to trade. But the Angels lost nine of 10 games at the break and Mike Trout will be out until the deadline and possibly well beyond.
The pressure on Moreno will mount as the Angels continue to collapse and the reality of losing Ohtani just for a draft pick in the 75-80 range becomes clear. The first six games against the Astros and Yankees after the break are obviously looking tough. But shortstop Zach Neto and left-back Matt Moore will return from the injury list Friday night, and third baseman Anthony Rendon could be back pretty soon.
Unless Moreno has made a public statement, which is highly unlikely, the Ohtani intrigue is likely to continue until the deadline. As of August 1, Ohtani will be due a salary of exactly $10 million. If the Angels make him available, even low-grossing teams would consider joining.
Playoff Odds: 14.7 percent
Time schedule: LAD 3, CWS 3, @BOS 3, @NYY 2, WAS 4
Doesn’t look good, does it? The Mets won six straight games before losing their final two games before the deadline to the Padres. They need to get back on track quickly and the forthcoming return of left-hander José Quintana, who has been out all season with a stress fracture in his left rib, could help.
Owner Steve Cohen has said the team will sell if necessary, but that’s not the Mets’ intention, like their recent spending of $8.5 million in salaries and luxury taxes on a middle-inning replacement Trevor Gott , prove. The potential for additional luxury tax penalties, combined with the Mets’ reluctance to shift prospects, would make finding major acquisitions more difficult.
If the Mets sold, their potential free agents — closer David Robertson and outfielders Tommy Pham and Mark Canha — would be the most likely to leave.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer?
Both have full no-trade clauses and both have previously waived them. But as I wrote in The Windup on Thursday, a failure for the Mets on the rebound would likely mean their two older aces weren’t pitching as well. If so, her accomplishments could be as great a deterrent to potential applicants as her remaining salary in the tens of millions.
Playoff Odds: 22.9 percent
Time schedule: DET 3, MIN 4, TOR 3, @MIN 3, @AZ 3
Under Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners are always a solid choice to cause a stir. Two years ago they acted as both buyer and seller. Last season they took on the best available pitcher, Luis Castillo, and struck another small deal for catcher Curt Casali and left-hander Matthew Boyd.
As the break neared, the Mariners picked up steam, winning seven of their last nine games, including three of four just before break at their home of horror, Minute Maid Park in Houston. Gott and Chris Flexen’s move to the Mets resulted in approximately $4.5 million in additional payroll flexibility. Right-hander Bryce Miller is expected to return from a blister on his right middle finger shortly after the break.
The problem is that the Mariners are six games behind in the AL West and the wildcard race is also tightly contested. The Orioles, Astros and Blue Jays currently hold the top three, and the Yankees and Red Sox are also ahead of the Mariners.
Boston Red Sox (48-43)
Playoff Odds: 29.7 percent
Time schedule: @CHC 3, @OAK 3, NYM 3, ATL 2, @SF 3
The team’s last place in the AL East is deceptive. The Red Sox are only two games behind in the wildcard race and went into the break 8-1. Shortstop Trevor Story, who is out all season after undergoing an internal brace on his right elbow, is expected to begin a rehabilitation assignment shortly.
It’s all promising, but as The Athletic’s Chad Jennings notes, the Sox are currently without Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, leaving them with just three healthy starters: James Paxton, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Perhaps they’ll stay hot on their six-game post-break road trip against the Cubs and A’s. But how long can they keep this up with their pitching injuries?
Baseball’s president, Chaim Bloom, will be under particular scrutiny after executing a flawed buy and sell strategy as of the reporting date last year. Left-hander Paxton and midfielder Adam Duvall would be attractive swap candidates. But humble additions might be the better way.
San Diego Padres (43-47)
Playoff Odds: 32.3 percent
Time schedule: @PHI 4, @TOR 3, @DET 3, PIT 3, TEX 3
Ignoring the Padres’ uninspired performance in their first 90 games, owner Peter Seidler recently told the San Diego Union-Tribune, “We’ve got a lot of catching up to do. I’m on the train saying we’re going to catch up.” For Seidler It’s always sunny in San Diego, whether it’s the weather or his team. Come to think of it, that could be part of the Padres’ problem.
The default position for General Manager AJ Preller is “Acquire now and worry later” if at all. With the Padres’ current luxury tax payroll of $276.5 million, they’re still more than $100 million below the Mets’, putting them above three of the four thresholds. Still, they are down six games in the wildcard race, a shocking nine games behind the team at the top, the Marlins.
If the Padres aren’t gaining momentum quickly, the smart path might be to trade in All-Star closer Josh Hader, actual All-Star Blake Snell and others. But as The Athletic’s Jim Bowden points out, the best window of opportunity for the team to win is this season and next, with left fielder Juan Soto only under the club’s control until 2024. And with an average attendance of more than 41,000 people, going backwards would be difficult to justify.
The Padres’ top pick, high-A shortstop Jackson Merrill, probably shouldn’t be feeling too comfortable, especially if Ohtani becomes available. At this time of year, Preller is always on the hunt.
(Top photo by Shohei Ohtani: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)