This can't be what Scott Boras wanted. And with Cody Bellinger, the first of the Boras four, now having agreed to a lower-than-expected contract, that might just encourage teams pursuing Boras' other top free agent clients to hold the line.
The opt-outs in Bellinger's reported three-year, $80 million free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs give him a chance to return to the open market next offseason. Maybe then he'll get a deal closer to what some had projected for him – six years, $162 million from The Athletic's Tim Britton, 12 years, $264 million from MLBTradeRumors.com.
Carlos Correa followed such a path, opting out of his original three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Minnesota Twins to sign a six-year, $200 million deal. He would have done even better if the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets hadn't cited issues with his physical condition to get out of deals over $300 million.
Other Boras clients – Adrían Beltré, Dallas Keuchel and Mike Moustakas – also initially accepted smaller contracts and later made up most or all of the difference. But to get such a deal, Bellinger will have to prove himself again. And he thought he had done it last season, finishing 10th in National League MVP voting and being named the NL Comeback Player of the Year.
His average annual value of $26.67 million ranks 37th all-time, just behind Freddie Freeman and Carlos Rodón, both of whom are at $27 million. But Bellinger is entering his season at age 28, just like another Boras client, Corey Seager, secured a 10-year, $325 million signing with the Texas Rangers two offseasons ago.
Seager was a shortstop, which added to his value. He was also the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year and the 2020 World Series MVP. On the other hand, he was coming off a season in which he played in just 95 games due to a fractured right hand. His former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, questioned whether he could stay at shortstop. Others wondered about its long-term durability.
Bellinger was named the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2023 with the Cubs. (Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Bellinger, a center fielder and first baseman, was the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 MVP. At least on the surface, he put together a much better platform season than Seager. But his .307 batting average, 26 home runs and .881 OPS were based on an average exit velocity that only exceeded that of one in five major league players. Teams were not convinced that Bellinger's recovery was sustainable and that he had fully overcome the struggles of his injury-plagued 2021 and '22 seasons.
Part of Bellinger's problem was that he was entering a surprisingly tepid market. His options were limited in part by lower spending by high-paying clubs like the Mets and Padres and some teams' uncertainty about their future local television revenue. So many times, Boras identified and took advantage of at least one team that was willing to spend money. Other than the Dodgers, who opted for non-Boras alternatives, there was no such team this offseason.
Rival agents and some club officials will question whether Boras overplayed his hand not only on Bellinger but also on the other members of the Boras Four – left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and third baseman Matt Chapman. Boras' initial expectations for Bellinger are unknown, but it's fair to ask: What if he had set lower goals? Could he have secured $120 million for four years? Five years, $145 million? An even longer deal with a lower AAV?
With Bellinger's terms now public, it wouldn't be surprising for Snell, Montgomery and Chapman to settle for similar “bridge deals.” Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations for the San Francisco Giants, whose team could use one of the pitchers in addition to Chapman, doesn't think he'll budge in his staredown with Boras. Other clubs are also less likely to give in.
Boras can blame market regression, bemoan clubs' financial retreat and point to the flexibility Bellinger retains over his future. Bellinger will definitely be fine. The Dodgers non-tendered him two years ago. Boras has since paid him $97.5 million in guaranteed money, bringing his career earnings to nearly $150 million. And Bellinger still has a chance to get a mega deal for him after this season or next.
Fair enough. The game is not over yet. But if you had told Jed Hoyer, the Cubs' president of baseball operations, at the start of the offseason that he would sign Bellinger for three years and $80 million, how do you think he would have reacted? With a smile wider than Lake Michigan. The smile he wears today.
(Top photo: Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)