The A’s move to Las Vegas seems like a fait accompli, and maybe it is. However, the move has yet to be endorsed by three-quarters of major league owners and some of the big clubs expect to at least ask tough questions before saying yes, if they say yes at all.
The next step for A’s owner John Fisher is to submit a detailed relocation request to the league. Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters Thursday a team had to meet “rather strict requirements” to leave one city for another. In other words, Fisher needs to justify why he thinks it would be better for the sport as a whole to leave the country’s sixth-biggest television market in favor of the 40th-biggest.
According to sources familiar with the requirements but not authorized to speak publicly, the application must include revenue forecasts, salary forecasts, the financing and construction plans for a new stadium, among other things. “You need to talk about the market you’re leaving, the effort you put in there, the markets you want to go into and why it’s better,” Manfred said.
Manfred made it clear that he had no problem with the A’s leaving Oakland. However, the A’s financial plans are likely to be of great interest to owners, particularly those in larger markets, who will continue to subsidize them on revenue sharing. While the Las Vegas team would almost certainly see increased revenue, it would still remain a revenue share recipient due to the size of its new market.
Even the structural elements of Fisher’s proposed ballpark, a seemingly straightforward matter, could raise questions. The 30,000-seat park would occupy 9 hectares, which is a tight footprint for a facility with a partially retractable roof.
Target Field in Minneapolis has the smallest area among the majors at 8.5 acres. The sport’s newest park, Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas features a fully retractable roof and spans 13 acres. The lower capacity of the A-Park should result in a smaller footprint. This also applies to the partially retractable roof. But it’s the sort of question the A’s are likely to have to grapple with, along with many others.
A relocation committee led by Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, comprised of two other owners who have yet to be identified, will review the application, sources said. Their evaluation goes to Manfred and then to the Executive Council, who will make the final recommendation to the clubs.
Fisher received the $380 million in public funding he requested from Nevada Legislature and Gov. Joe Lombardo. The only question that remains is whether its co-owners will be a more difficult audience.
The Dodgers are in transition and fighting with their bullpen. The Padres are playing better, but still under .500. The Giants are getting more interesting as they age, but they don’t look as strong as they did in 2021.
So could the Diamondbacks, who lead the NL West by two games, be more aggressive at deadline day than they otherwise would be? Probably not. The Diamondbacks want to maintain their success, and a big push would not guarantee them now and potentially jeopardize them in the future.
That’s not to say the Diamondbacks won’t be willing to add something. General Manager Mike Hazen couldn’t bring himself to do a complete rebuild when the team struggled, and that same competitive spirit will drive him to step up his pitching over the past two months. The problem with the Diamondbacks going all-in is that, unlike a high-volume team, they can’t undo bad trades by spending their money.
If the overall supply of available talent is as limited as some executives fear, it could actually work in the Diamondbacks’ favor and limit opportunities for the Dodgers and Padres. Currently, the Diamondbacks have just five games against the Dodgers and seven against the Padres under the new, more balanced schedule.
Red wines ready to buy?
The Reds’ pool of young talent stretches well beyond their rookies who thrive in the majors, leaving them well positioned to take trades. Their ability to add payslips is the bigger question, but general manager Nick Krall doesn’t anticipate that will be an issue.
“I don’t see anything that could deter us from an acquisition,” Krall said.
The Reds squad will be even fuller if Nick Senzel is taken off the injury list this weekend and Joey Votto returns towards the end of the month. Senzel once again seems to be a super utility guy, playing both infield and outfield. Votto will be a first baseman/DH, potentially forcing Spencer Steer into the same role as Senzel. Oh, and outfielders Wil Myers and Jake Fraley are expected back soon too.
Meanwhile, corner infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits .354 with a 1.132 OPS at Triple A, potentially forcing another decision. Encarnacion Beach, 23, has drastically reduced his chase rate over the past few weeks while increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate compared to last season.
Krall raves about the Reds’ player development team, which sent infielders Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz and left-back Andrew Abbott to the majors as virtually finished products. Krall also credits the team’s pro-scouting and analytics departments for the various low-budget finds in the Reds’ bullpen that produced the highest fWAR in the Netherlands. The amateur and international scouting wasn’t too bad either.
The Reds’ need is clear: start pitching. Right-back Graham Ashcraft is expected to return in the next few weeks after suffering a bruise to his left calf. Left-hander Nick Lodolo has four to six weeks to recover from his left calf tendonitis and could prove a deadline job situation. However, for the Reds to have any real chance of winning the NL Central, the addition of another starter will likely be necessary.
Another note on the Reds: Their base running has improved dramatically under first base coach Collin Cowgill, the former major league outfielder who joined their team this season. Part of that is due to better staffing, but the team has jumped from 29th in Fangraphs’ baserunning metric last season to second this year.
Remember 2021 when the Cardinals became the first club to produce five individual Gold Glove winners? How about 22 when they won the Team Gold Glove award for the second year in a row?
Those days are over, as I wrote Wednesday in The Windup, where this article originally appeared. The Cardinals are the biggest disappointment among the majors, and that’s saying something considering two of the top three most expensive clubs, the Mets and Padres, are also underperforming. The Athletic’s Katie Woo pointed to the many reasons behind the Cardinals’ relegation to the team with the worst record in the NL and third-worst in the Majors. But defense might be the greatest of them all.
In both 2021 and 2022, the Cardinals pitched 28th in strikeout percentage. However, the defense was so good that the Cardinals won 90 or more games both times and advanced to the postseason. In 2023, the Cardinals rank 24th in strikeout rate, slightly better than the previous two seasons. The problem is that the team’s defense cannot handle all the balls in play.
Consider the Cardinals’ decline through Wednesday on three key defensive metrics from 2022-23:
• The Cardinals ranked 14th on Statcast’s Outs Above Average last season, up two. This season they were in 23rd place with minus 7.
• The Cardinals finished fourth in defensive runs saved last season at plus-67. They were 28th at minus 26 this season.
• The Cardinals ranked 12th last season in defensive efficiency, the percentage of balls converted to outs, with a .702. This season they were at .660.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering the ramifications of Yadier Molina’s retirement, consider that the Cardinals removed his $87.5 million replacement as their starting catcher after 35 games, only to have him restored to that position a week later bring to. Her ERA with this replacement, Williamson Contreras, is 4.73. For Andrew Knizner it is 4.02.
Now for the five Gold Glove winners from 2021…
One of them, midfielder Harrison Bader, joined the Yankees last year at the trade date for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, the Cardinals’ most consistent starter. Another left fielder, Tyler O’Neill, has been on the injured list since May 5 with a lower back strain.
Tommy Edman, who won his Gold Glove at second base in 1921, now plays center due to numerous injuries in the Cardinals outfield. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt remains a plus defender, but third baseman Nolan Arenado, a 10-time Gold Glove winner and six-time Platinum Glove winner for his league’s top fielder, isn’t the same. From 2022 to 2023 he has fallen from second to 17th in the DRS and from second to 28th in the OAA.
The Cardinals like to portray themselves as players of a special kind of baseball. It’s not that special anymore.
A way to draw attention to them
The trade deadline is 6 1/2 weeks away, but if ever a team could benefit from a faster restructuring, it’s the Cardinals. One option could be to trade right-hander Jack Flaherty, who is a season-ending free agent.
Cardinals baseball division president John Mozeliak recently told The Athletic’s Woo that the Cardinals are “holding” and said the next four to six weeks could set the course for the team. However, Flaherty does not always seem to be in tune with the organization. Some at the club believe his remark in early May about “our entire team is throwing shots that don’t make sense” led to Contreras being temporarily sacked as a catcher.
Without Flaherty, the Cardinals could continue with a rotation of Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright and Matthew Liberatore, and bring Steven Matz back into the starting lineup. Gordon Graceffo, the team’s top pitching contender, has been on the injured list since May 3 with a shoulder infection and could soon be reinstated in the Triple-A rotation.
The pillow fight departments
Jed Hoyer, the president of baseball operations for the Cubs, summed up NL Central quite well on Wednesday, telling reporters, “Anyone can still win it.” Another NL Central manager, who wished to remain anonymous because he has his own team and not wanting to belittle others in the division, likened the race to a “pillow fight.” He could also have talked about AL Central.
The trade market is likely to be depressed if no team succeeds in either division by the deadline, making it difficult for clubs within striking distance of the first-place finishers to concede a goal. Aside from the Reds and Cardinals, which I covered earlier, here are some of the issues facing the other three teams at Central:
Pirates: Starting depth was an issue even before Vince Velasquez became the Pirates’ third starter after JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. Roansy Contreras regression is another problem, forcing the pirates to explore internal alternatives.
Perhaps Osvaldo Bido, who gave the Cubs a run in four innings on their major league debut on Wednesday night, is part of the solution. If his fastball improves, Triple-A right-hander Quinn Priester, 18th overall pick of 2019, could be another possibility. This also applies to Jared Jones, the 44th overall winner in 2020, who excels in Double A.
Another question for the Pirates is whether they will promote one or both of their catchers at Triple A, Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez. Davis, the first overall pick of 2021, is playing on the right field and as his defense improves it could be difficult to hold his racquet in the minor games. Rodríguez is defensively ahead of Davis at the catcher and could also be ready offensively. But finding a place for him could be difficult unless he also plays a different position. Pirates pitchers love to pitch at Austin Hedges and Jason Delay, although Hedges in particular is a gap in the lineup.
Young: They spent a total of $280.5 million on free agency for Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and Drew Smyly, and then set aside $96 million for contract renewals for Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. Still, the Cubs aren’t as all-in as the Mets, Padres, and Phillies, for example.
Before defeating the Pirates, the team had only had one three-game win streak and one four-game win streak in the first two and a half weeks of the season. If the Cubs realize their best shot at long-term success is to sell, they will sell — and Bellinger, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks could all leave.
Brewer: The Brewers have 11 players on the injured list, more than any team except the Dodgers, Reds, Yankees and Tigers. How you proceed at deadline will likely depend on whether some of those players, notably Brandon Woodruff, Jesse Winker and Matt Bush, return to effective levels of performance.
A potential joker: outfielder Sal Frelick, who is recovering from surgery to repair a cruciate ligament tear in his left thumb in late April. Frelick performed well for Team Italy at the World Baseball Classic and was able to bring the same spark to the Brewers that Garrett Mitchell had in early April before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.
Time for the twins to strike!
The Twins’ high strikeout rate in the major league of 27 percent is raising outside questions about hitting coach David Popkins’ job security, but club officials are reluctant to make a switch, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Carlos Correa finally starts hitting. Byron Buxton was removed from the injured list on Wednesday. These are the Twins’ two main hitters and if they perform as expected, it will greatly improve the team’s offense.
While the Twins are only 20th in runs per game in the majors, their Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) are in mid-table. Four of their offensive additions (Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor) are doing better than last season according to this metric. Only Christian Vázquez is worse.
The Twins may not need a strong offense to win the AL Central. Her rotation ranks fourth in the ERA’s majors, her bullpen seventh. You just have to be better than before.
The Bieber Question
On June 7, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel wrote an article headlined, “Why the Guardians could trade Shane Bieber and why the situation is complicated.” If anything, Bieber’s recent start, which saw him rule out the Astros for seven innings, has the intrigue only increased.
Jose Altuve and Yordan Álvarez weren’t in the Astros’ squad, but Bieber’s four-seam speed was 0.5 mph above his season average and he set his season high with nine strikeouts. Granted, Bieber’s average fastball speed is still just 91.2 mph, a figure exceeded by 94 percent of all pitchers, according to Statcast. But with potential trading partners haggling over the price with the Guardians, it will be harder for them to argue that his stuff is in the red if the price keeps going up.
The Guardians expect to proceed as usual, set a value for Bieber and stick with it. If teams are aware that Bieber isn’t the same as he was during his 2020 Cy Young season, that’s fine. Bieber is not only an above-average starter, but also a real leader for the pitching team. For the Guardians, who are likely to stay in the running at the mediocre AL Central, it might be better to keep Bieber than to trade him off-season when he begins his running year.
The other side of that is right-hander Gavin Williams, the No. 42 in the game to start the season according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, has a 2.93 ERA in nine starts at Triple A. Right-handers Cal Quantrill and Peyton Battenfield could return from shoulder inflammation in the second half. And two young Guardians starters, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, are already finding success.
Guardians officials rave about how mature the young pitchers are in their routines and preparation. Carl Willis, the team’s pitching coach from 2003-2009 and 2018-present, is helping make the transition easier for pitchers. And the Guardians routinely managed to swap starters for Bieber’s position with them remaining in control of the club for at least a year.
Trevor Bauer brought them Franmil Reyes, who had an .816 OPS and 49 home runs in 802 at-bats from August 2019 to 2021 before being fired in 2022. Corey Kluber brought them Emmanuel Clase, who went on to become one of the best closers in the league. Mike Clevinger brought them Quantrill, first baseman Josh Naylor, infielder Gabriel Arias and others including pitching contender Joey Cantillo.
The Guardians could also potentially hit the jackpot with Bieber.
Visitor numbers are increasing
Games are faster. A number of long-distance runners are surprises in the first half. The season started on time and was not delayed by a lockout. Whatever the reasons, according to STATS Perform, major league viewership increased 6.25 percent in the first 77 days of the season compared to the same point in 2022.
Biggest increases
Pirates: +39.5 percent (average 18,540)
Guardians: +38.7 percent (average 20,227)
Phillies: +35.2 percent (average 39,229)
Oriole: +25.2 percent (average 20,340)
Radiance: +23.1 percent (average 17,187)
Biggest Drops
White Sox: -17.4 percent (average 19,348)
Rocky Mountains: -12.1 percent (average 27,947)
Tiger: -6.3 percent (average 18,860)
Giants: -5.9 percent (average 28,899)
Nationals: -2.1 percent (Proverb 21,490)
All around the horn
• Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes has been on a downtrend in the two seasons since winning the 2021 NL Young Cy Young award, potentially hurting his value if the Brewers consider trading him.
Burnes’ average fastball speed has dropped from the 83rd percentile to the 75th and 64th percentiles. His whiff rate has dropped from the 97th percentile through the 95th to the 72nd percentile. And his strikeout rate is down from 35.6 percent to 30.5 to 24.3.
Another trend with Burnes is that he gives lefties a .481 OPS, likely due to the effectiveness of his backdoor cutter, while righties have a .734 OPS. In 2021 he had an OPS of .471 and in 2022 an OPS of .593.
• Perhaps the biggest development in the Marlins is the stunning performance of Rookie right-hander Eury Pérezwho is the fourth youngest pitcher to have an ERA under 2.00 in his first seven career starts since ERA became an official MLB statistic in 1913.
20-year-old Pérez has had an ERA of 1.80 since his promotion from Double A on May 12. He went through six innings for the first time Wednesday night and reduced his walk rate from 12.7 percent in his first four games to 6.3 percent in his last three. Some Perspectives: When Sandy Alcantara was 20, he was still in Class A.
A minor move by the Marlins, trading Class A outfielder Brady Allen to the Tigers for outfielder Jonathan Davis on May 22, has also benefited the club significantly. The team lacked depth and Davis, 31, has proven to be a capable stopgap with Jazz Chisholm Jr. on the injured list.
• The White Sox, 5 1/2 in the AL Central but 10 games under .500, are telling potential trade partners that, at least for now, they may only be willing to trade players with expiring contracts rather than those with greater control.
Potential loanees include right-handers Lucas Giolito and Mike Clevinger, catcher Yasmani Grandal, second baseman Elvis Andrus, and relievers Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton. Shortstop Tim Anderson, closer Liam Hendriks and reliever Kendall Graveman are all under control by 2024, right-hander Dylan Cease by ’25.
• A rival manager described Rangers’ performance with runners in goal as ‘laughable’. It’s difficult to argue about that.
The Rangers’ batting average of .322 is 34 points higher than the next highest club in these situations, and their .536 slugging percentage is 53 points higher.
(Top Photo: Courtesy of the Oakland A’s)