Signing six free agents for a total of $105 million isn't necessarily something people expected from the low-revenue, 106-loss Kansas City Royals. However, according to sources briefed on the club's deliberations, the team's relative spending spree is due to a number of new and surprising developments.
The continued deterioration of a division the Royals see as winnable. An owner, John Sherman, who in a notable instance chose to sign another free agent rather than trade a talented young slugger. And yes, a draft lottery that punished the Royals in their first two years of existence by giving them lower positions than they would have received under the old system, which was based solely on win-loss record.
In 2022, the Royals finished with the fifth-worst record and went eighth in the draft. They finished with the second-worst record in 2023 and will finish sixth. The lower the position, the lower the signing bonus for the first-round pick – and the smaller a team's overall draft bonus pool.
As frustrated as the Royals are with the lottery, club officials estimate the savings in first-round signing bonuses will be about $5 million over two years. The actual number could end up being lower, but the point is this: The lottery, pushed by the Players Association as an anti-tank measure in the recent collective bargaining agreement, is having its desired effect. A bad record is no longer a guarantee of a top choice.
So the Royals are effectively forced into free agency. Their farming system is considered one of the worst in the game. You can't lose your way to one of the top six lottery picks. So instead of pocketing their first-round savings from the last two years, they reinvest them in the first division club.
Their timing makes all the more sense given the state of the American League Central. The Detroit Tigers, like the Royals, are trying to revive themselves and are showing increased willingness to spend. But the 101-loss Chicago White Sox are holding trade offers for their best pitcher, Dylan Cease. The Twins and Guardians, meanwhile, are exercising financial restraint due to uncertainty with their regional sports networks.
The division-wide malaise presents opportunities. And Sherman, who took over in November 2019, is clearly growing more and more impatient, waiting for the team's streak of seven straight losses to end. The fact that the team is seeking public funding for a new ballpark could also be part of Sherman's motivation.
Once the Royals knew they could sign free-agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who agreed to a two-year, $13 million contract on Friday, they faced a tough decision in finding another starting pitcher. They could trade first baseman/DH Vinnie Pasquantino to the Marlins for left-hander Jesús Luzardo, a deal sources said was discussed at the winter meetings. Or they could sign right-hander Michael Wacha, a major league free agent who was in high demand.
The Royals decided to keep Vinnie Pasquantino after considering a deal with the Marlins at the winter meetings. (Denny Medley/USA Today)
Luzardo, who was under the club's control for three more seasons, was intriguing. But Pasquantino, who did not play after June 9 of last season because of a torn labrum in his right shoulder that required surgery, is still under the club's control for five more seasons and still has promising prospects. For a team that ranked 23rd in runs scored last season, trading Pasquantino for Luzardo would have filled one hole and created another.
The front office consulted Sherman. The owner decided to move forward. And on Friday, the Royals agreed to terms with Wacha on a two-year, $32 million contract. Wacha can opt out after his first season. Right-hander Seth Lugo, who previously agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract, is eligible to opt out after his second contract.
In 2023, the Royals finished second to last in the majors in ERA, ahead of only the Rockies. But the acquisition of left-back Cole Ragans from the Rangers for backup Aroldis Chapman proved to be one of the biggest coups of the trade deadline. The additions of Wacha and Lugo should further strengthen the rotation and ease pressure on homegrown pitchers like Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch.
The free agent newcomers in the bullpen are Will Smith (one year, $5 million) and Chris Stratton (two years, $8 million). Smith, the first pitcher to commit to the Royals, helped convince Stratton, his Rangers teammate last season, to join him. Wacha and Lugo, Padres teammates last season, also presumably spoke.
The six players the Royals signed heard the same message from club officials: A division title is within reach. All six, including infielder Garrett Hampson, who signed a one-year, $2 million contract, bring postseason experience. The plan calls for them to act as stabilizers and help younger Royals players settle into their major league careers.
The team is by no means perfect. The 34-year-old Smith is considered the current closer, but he is no longer the dominant force he once was. The Royals could probably use another late-inning guy to share the closing load. A left-handed batting infielder would round out the roster of position players, but that is less of a priority. Younger hitters like Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Kyle Isbel need to take a step forward or the Royals' spending could be for naught.
The lineup beyond No. 2 hitter Bobby Witt Jr. will be deeper, with Renfroe, Pasquantino and Sal Perez — who were the subject of trade talks at the last deadline — somewhere in the middle of the order. Players like Melendez and Nelson Velázquez, another discovery at last year's deadline, could end up at the bottom. And while the Royals may not mess up, they at least have players who can run: Witt, Isbel, Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, Drew Waters. The defense ranked fourth in the majors in Outs Above Average last season.
The team's current payroll of $111.7 million would be the Royals' highest on Opening Day since 2018, according to Fangraphs calculations. The investments could backfire. None of the free agents are stars. But at least the Royals are making an effort. As they have learned, avoiding the lottery is a worthy goal.
(Top photo by John Sherman / Ed Zurga / Getty Images)