Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the 2019 G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan.
Mikhail Klimentyev | AFP | Getty Images
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked the biggest clash between Moscow and the West in decades. Both are competing to persuade some of the world’s most powerful nations, namely China and India, to take sides in the conflict.
Both Russia and Britain dispatched their foreign ministers to India on Thursday, prompting a somewhat awkward diplomatic clash in which both sought to woo Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government over trade and the war in Ukraine.
Ahead of the official visits, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said her aim was to persuade the Delhi government that “deeper Britain-India relations will strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific and globally, and create jobs and opportunities in both countries.” This is even more important in the context of the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine,” she said.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose visit ends on Friday, has sought to step up trade ties and sell more oil to India as it faces widespread energy import boycotts in Europe and the United States.
One of the top US advisers, Daleep Singh, also traveled to India on Wednesday for a two-day trip to “consult closely with his counterparts on the consequences of Russia’s unjust war against Ukraine and mitigate its impact on the global economy.” so White said house.
Western nations, which imposed massive sanctions on Russia after invading Ukraine, are attempting to block Moscow’s economic escape routes, such as the sale of oil and gas to China and India. For its part, Russia is attempting to circumvent sanctions through the alliances it has forged with its Asian neighbors.
After Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on February 24, condemnation of Moscow’s aggression was almost universal. But some countries allied with or friendly to Russia have been more ambiguous.
On March 2, 141 countries voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Five countries – Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and, of course, Russia – voted against, while 35 abstained, including China and India. Since then, other votes have taken place on other resolutions deploring the war, with China and India maintaining their neutral stance.
India and China
Both China and India are believed to be suspicious of the war behind closed doors. Of particular concern for China is the uncertainty it brings to global relations and trade. For its part, India has extensive defense ties with Russia and is an importer of Russian oil.
Analysts said both powers are hoping for a ceasefire sooner rather than later, although President Vladimir Putin shows little sign of the conflict de-escalating.
“India’s position has raised many eyebrows around the world,” Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told CNBC on Thursday, “because of its abstention at the United Nations, its unwillingness to criticize Russia, and many people have its historic defense relationship with.” India cites Russia and its continued reliance on Russian defense materials [military equipment] but it’s not a direct problem.”
“I think India would support a ceasefire and a quick end [of the war],” he said.
He said India planned its budgets around an oil price of around $75 a barrel. The war has caused these prices to rise above $100 and this was another reason why India could not sever its relationship with oil exporter Russia. Indeed, in recent weeks India has been snapping up Russian oil, which is being sold at a discount, as western buyers seek to sharply scale back their energy imports from Russia.
Putin has maintained cordial, even cordial, relations with the leaders of India and China, with President Xi Jinping calling Putin his “best friend” in 2019 as their ties deepened while relations with the West deteriorated.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS | Getty Images
“This looks very much like a re-establishment of a binary world order,” Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, told CNBC earlier this month.
“Right now it looks like the West has rebuilt the transatlantic relationship and China is on Russia’s side, that’s just the perception in the West,” he said, adding that China needs to be careful how it goes about it diplomatic level.
“China is trying to do this elaborate dance where it’s trying to signal to everyone that it wasn’t on Russia’s side, but it wasn’t on America’s side either, and it just doesn’t seem like that’s enough. In the world of social media, on Twitter , you’re on one side or the other very quickly, and I don’t think China wants to be canceled.”
A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in London was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Beyond the West
Putin has also nurtured a relationship with Modi, his fellow BRICS (the acronym for emerging-market giants Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a relationship the West sees as a threat to world order.
On Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned in the military alliance’s most recent annual report: “We have entered a new era of global security, in which authoritarian powers such as Russia and China openly question the fundamental principles of our security and also seek to do so for the entire international order.” rewrite on which our peace and prosperity depend.”
Worryingly for the West, Russia may seek to strengthen its ties with other neutral countries apart from China and India.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released a report Thursday saying that “two-thirds of the world’s population live in neutral or Russia-leaning countries on the war in Ukraine.”
According to the report, while 36% of the world’s population lives in countries that have actively condemned Russia and imposed sanctions on Russia’s economy, including the United States, EU countries, and Japan, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. “Almost a third of the world’s population lives in a country that has so far remained neutral.”
Led by India, these non-aligned countries – including Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates – will “do their utmost to avoid taking sides while trying to capitalize on their apparent neutrality,” the EIU noted. Another 32 percent of the world’s population now lives in a country where the government has backed Russia’s actions, it said.
Commenting on the research, Agathe Demarais, the EIU’s director of global forecasts, said that “Russia (and China) will devote their efforts in the coming years to courting non-aligned, neutral countries – which are mainly found in the developing world.” .
“Building on other tools like vaccine diplomacy, the Russian and Chinese governments will hope to form a counter-front to the West. The eventual result will be a dwindling influence and gradual withdrawal by Western countries from much of the developing world.”