Negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul on March 29, which was a priori the most significant progress in the talks since the start of the rounds of talks on the Ukraine-Belarus border at the end of February. However, no progress was made in the meeting between the parties on short-term solutions to key issues such as Donbass or Crimea.
34 days have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, and today, March 29, the opposing parties’ delegations met in Istanbul, Turkey, for the most fruitful a priori round of negotiations since talks began.
However, issues such as the sovereignty of Donbass in south-eastern Ukraine or Crimea, which Russia irregularly annexed in 2014, remained in the thick outline of the session, outside the details of the talks.
While there is no denying the progress, suspicions remain, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his usual recorded message, published every evening on the President’s website.
“Yes, we can call the signals we received from the trading platform positive. But these signals do not drown out the ruptures of Russian projectiles,” said the president, adding that “we see no reason to trust the words of certain officials of a state that continues to fight for our destruction.”
Despite the natural reluctance of the Ukrainian leader, crucial issues for the transition to the end of the conflict were raised today in Istanbul, which could go through the elaboration and signing of an international treaty.
In the negotiations, Russia is demanding Ukraine’s neutrality and its commitment to the nation that refuses to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or any other international military alliance.
In addition, the Kremlin also requires its neighbors to refuse to have foreign military bases on their territory, as well as nuclear weapons.
For its part, Ukraine, ready to accept these terms, is demanding in return an international treaty in which at least 11 countries offer security guarantees in the event of Russian aggression or military attack. This is the only way to reach an agreement, according to Oleksander Chalyi, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating committee.
According to this country’s delegation, the countries guaranteeing security in Ukraine in the event of an offensive would be the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom). And they would be joined by Turkey, Poland, Germany, Italy, Israel and Canada.
“Others can join,” added David Arahamiya, the Ukrainian side’s lead negotiator.
But even if there were an agreement between the parties to the conflict, the path of the hypothetical state treaty would not end there, since the guarantor states would have to formalize their role as such and, moreover, the text would have to be submitted to a referendum in Ukraine so that, if accepted, becomes part of their Magna Carta.
This referendum would not be held until the actual withdrawal of Russian troops had been completed.
After the parties’ meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu, who acted as mediator along with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, expressed hope that Tuesday’s meeting, the 29th summit between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets Russian and Ukrainian negotiators before addressing them before their face-to-face talks in Istanbul, Turkey March 29, 2022. © via REUTERS – MURAT CETINMUHURDAR/PPO
“We can say that both sides have come closer. You made significant progress today. Now the foreign ministers of both countries will meet, and then a meeting of the heads of state and government is planned,” Çavusoglu said at the end of the session.
In the same vein, and in the spirit of showing his readiness for the progress of the negotiations, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, proposed “an arrangement according to which the meeting of the heads of state is possible simultaneously with the initiation of the treaty”.
“Radical” military dismantling in Kyiv and Chernihiv?
In the middle of the negotiations, the Russian negotiating committee announced that the Kremlin troops would reduce their pressure on the capital Kyiv and other cities in the country such as northern Chernihiv, which had been under siege by the Russian army for days.
“In order to strengthen mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for the continuation of negotiations and the achievement of the goal of reaching a consensus and signing an agreement, Russia has decided to cardinally reduce military activities in the vicinity of Kyiv and Chernihiv ‘ said Deputy Defense Minister Alexandr Fomin.
BREAKING: Ukraine says Russia is withdrawing some troops from Kyiv and Chernikhiv
—Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 29, 2022
In the hours following the Russian government’s announcement, Tom Wolters, NATO commander and head of US European Command (EUCOM), confirmed before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on the afternoon of March 29 that “a change in dynamic” is occurring Space by Russian forces around Kyiv, which could imply a possible Russian withdrawal to clarify its negotiating position.
However, information from the Pentagon, the headquarters of the US Department of Defense, that same afternoon alluded to Russia demobilizing “a small number” of military units in the perimeter around Kyiv, but ruled out “a real withdrawal” since she still keeps “the vast majority” of her recruits and defense material in the area.
“We believe this is a resettlement, not a true disengagement, and we should all be prepared to see a major offensive against other parts of Ukraine,” Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said at a news conference.
Russia is positioning a small number of troops away from Kyiv, the Pentagon said, who are believed to be deployed elsewhere in Ukraine. REUTERS/ more to come
— Stephen Farrell (@farrellreporter) March 29, 2022
In addition, Kirby, showing his skepticism, commented that “no one should be fooled by the Kremlin’s recent claim that it will suddenly reduce military attacks on Kyiv, or other information that it will withdraw all its forces”.
According to the Pentagon, Russian troops will not pull out of Kyiv or any other city to leave Ukraine, but to move to other areas of the country such as the Donbass region, which has officially become a priority target of the Kremlin since late last week .
On the ground, journalists from the Ukrainian capital covering the war reported late in the afternoon of March 29 that despite announcements by the Kremlin, anti-aircraft sirens were again sounding in Kyiv and loud explosions roared for several hours.
Russia has announced that it will reduce its military actions against Kyiv. At 8:25 p.m. the siren sounded. We’ve been hearing continuous explosions for two hours.
— Jairo Vargas Martín (@JairoExtre) March 29, 2022
For this reason, President Zelenskyy called not to lower our vigilance, because “the Russian army still has significant potential to continue attacks on our state”.
Crimea and Donbass, outside the details of the negotiations
To the detriment of the particular progress made in the talks between the Russian-Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, sensitive issues were left out of the parties’ original demands.
Russia demands Ukraine’s military neutrality, although it does not prevent its accession to the European Union (instead, the guarantor countries must actively participate in the country’s future admission to the Community Club) and Ukraine demands guarantees to avoid future military offensives.
However, about the sovereignty of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in Donbass in south-eastern Ukraine; or around the sovereignty of the Crimean peninsula, which Russia irregularly annexed in 2014, there was no suggestion for a short-term solution.
Russia recognizes these areas as its own and declared last week that their defense and total control is the Kremlin’s top priority; while Ukraine wants to regain the same space, considering it an unbreakable part of its national sovereignty.
Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky visits the front line of his country’s armed forces against Russian separatists in the Donbass region, Ukraine April 8, 2021 via REUTERS – UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SER
In order not to impede talks on the remaining points, Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelensky’s adviser and part of Ukraine’s negotiating delegation, suggested that the territorial conflict in the south-east of the country be settled within 15 years, in which the parties agree not to use force on the ground.
Be that as it may, neither Crimea nor Donbass will be part of the possible international agreement in which the parties to the conflict may soon advance further.
The meeting in Istanbul, which was due to resume on Wednesday March 30, has been suspended for the time being due to the progress of the conclusions on the first day of negotiations.
With information from the agency EFE