Putin during a press conference in Astana, Kazakhstan
This week, after a year and four months, the invasion is complete. As Ukrainians celebrate smallscale territorial reconquests, the conflict has shifted to rhetorical terrain. A Russia raised the tone and put into practice one of the concepts of war: deterrence. Showing your strength to the enemy intimidates them into a direct attack. Since the end of Second War[In1945theformerSovietUnionbuiltthelargestarsenalofnuclearwarheadsWiththefallofthecommunistconglomeratethebombscameundercontrolofMoscowCountriespositionedatoppositepoliticalspectrumsalsoformedamilitaryalliancewhosemainmembershadsocalled”tacticalmissiles”Theclimateofconstanttensionlastedfivedecadesandwentdowninhistoryasthe”ColdWar”[1945bautedieehemaligeSowjetuniondasgrößteArsenalanAtomsprengköpfenMitdemFalldeskommunistischenKonglomeratsgelangtendieBombenunterdieKontrolleMoskausMitdenehemaligenSowjetrepublikenwurdenVereinbarungengetroffensodassdieabden1990erJahreninOsteuropaentstandenenRegierungennichtdengleichenVorteilhättenwiederKremlAngesichtsderBedrohungbewaffnetensichauchLänderdiesichimentgegengesetztenpolitischenSpektrumpositioniertenDarüberhinausschlossensiesichzueinemMilitärbündniszusammendessenHauptmitgliederübersogenannte„taktischeRaketen“verfügtenDasständigeSpannungsklimadauertefünfJahrzehnteundgingals„KalterKrieg“indieGeschichteeinTrotzderEinschüchterungenaufbeidenSeitenwurdenachdenAnschlägennieeineAtombombeeingesetztJapan. That doesn’t mean the technology has stood still. But on the contrary.
Hiroshima was the first casualty of the war technology that marked the final phase of the war. The explosion had the energy equivalent to detonating 16 tons of dynamite. Three days later, Nagasaki felt an even bigger impact: 20 tons of dynamite. The bombs dropped in 1945 caused destruction calculated in kilotons, the unit of measurement referenced in tons of TNT. The two bombings killed 110,000 people almost instantly. Later generations of warheads switched to other propellants that produce new physicochemical reactions that are much more destructive. So much so that the amount rose to megatons (one thousand tons of dynamite). The 1945 bombs were pulverizing, meaning they had the ability to turn anything in the epicenter to dust. Today’s weapons are vaporizers. This means that the heat wave changes the state of matter. It is this type of weapon that is available to Putin. Not necessarily, the Russian President provided his army with missiles of this destructive power. Also because secrecy is part of the strategy. With the latest maneuver, the Kremlin adds another component to the constraint: Belarus. The country shares a triple border with Russia and Ukraine, and its president has been fully proMoscow since taking office in 1994. From there, in February 2022, tank columns and supply trucks drove towards the occupied territory.
In the event of a Russian nuclear attack against the Ukrainians, for example, the Belarusians would suffer consequences ranging from contamination of possible radioactive waste to retaliation from Kiev’s allies; not to mention likely convictions for complicity in international courts. Again, the magnitude of the explosion of the most powerful Russian bomb currently in existence would destroy a 35kilometer radius. This is just a theoretical calculation. For example, it is hardly possible to predict medium and longterm effects on the environment or how the tragedy would lead to new waves of migration. The economic future of the target is also unclear. Reactions are also unpredictable in the field of geopolitics. Something extraordinary usually triggers equally unprecedented reactions. Many of Putin’s moves were backed by Chinese support. The Russian president predicted rejection from the West, while predicting the signing of deals with Beijing that would be embargoed by the United States and the European Union. Said and done. But it is the policy of the Chinese Communist Party to break with nations that use weapons of mass destruction, even though China reserves the right to have such weapons for itself.
The United States left an eyesore on history by hitting civilian targets with what was then the most powerful weapon. Despite moral condemnation from some, Washington benefited from having tipped the balance of hegemonic bipolarity in America’s favour. Today’s Russia is not on the same basis. Moscow is not the hegemon of the 21st century. It is important to remember that we live in different times when reputation has a relevant meaning in the world system. A nuclear strike against Ukraine would potentially weaken the enemy beyond repair. And it would likely isolate Putin enough to jeopardize his political capital.