In the second quarter of 2022 (the first one dedicated to the war in Ukraine) The Russian economy shrank by 4% compared to the same period in 2021. This is the first drop in a year. The downturn is though less strong than expected. The data was made official today byRussian Statistical Institute. International sanctions have been imposed in sectors such as the auto industry, where the Production was almost stopped after western groups fled the country. But other sectors, above all the energy sector, have also shown themselves in recent months signs of stabilization. Just as the decline in household spending appears to be contained. The numbers for the third quarter will be crucial to understand if and how the Russian economy adjusts to the new context or if it collapses instead.
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Allies, trade triangulations and brilliant economists. So Moscow has softened the blow of Western sanctions for the time being
According to the monthly report published yesterday byInternational Energy Agency For now, the sanctions are struggling to do any significant damage to the oil sector, thanks in part to increased purchases of Russian crude by the US China, India and Turkey. The effect of the penalties is destined to grow over time but the fact that many large countries do not join makes them porous. Corresponding Central Bank of Russia The country could not revise the plus sign in front of the gross domestic product until 2025 at the earliest. Last April, the bank put forward a hypothesis Decline in GDP for 2022 up to 10%, but in the following months this decline was considered excessive. The US Bank JP Morgan He hypothesized that the fall in GDP this year could be limited to -3.5%. Significant decline, higher than -3% in 2020, the year of the pandemic, but well below the original forecasts.
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Istat, exports down in June, trade balance down at 2.1 billion. Doubling the value of imports from Russia
