Updated on 07/09/2022 08:02
- According to an expert on Russia, the Kremlin assumes that Alexander Van der Bellen will be re-elected in the presidential election.
- Incumbent Van der Bellen also attested to the expert that in 2019 he was “partly a useful idiot” by Vladimir Putin.
According to Russia expert Gerhard Mangott, the Kremlin does not have a preferred candidate in the presidential election. “None” of the six candidates is Putin’s candidate, “because, according to my information, the Russian side assumes that Van der Bellen will be re-elected anyway, at worst on the second ballot,” Mangott said in the APA interview. . He attested to the incumbent that in 2019 he was “partly a useful idiot” for the Kremlin chief.
During Putin’s visit to Austria in June 2018, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen said that “there was no reason for a crisis of confidence between the European Union and Russia”. Given the annexation of Crimea that has already taken place and the war in Donbass, this was a “scandalous remark”.
Kremlin expects Van der Bellen to be re-elected in first ballot
“There were more than good reasons for a crisis of confidence. And the fact that he repeated it during his return visit to Sochi in May 2019 put it all on top,” said the political scientist. After the start of the war, Van der Bellen “changed his mind. He had no other choice, he also spoke of a mistake he made there”.
The Kremlin expects Van der Bellen to be re-elected on the first ballot, Mangott said. FPÖ candidate Walter Rosenkranz had “no chance of winning this election”. Also, there is nothing that the FPÖ can participate in the government again in the near future, which is why relations with the Freedom Party are not that important at the moment. The other candidates “do not have the potential to reach the second round”, added the expert, referring to current opinion polls.
The most important European election for the Ukraine conflict in the near future is Italy, Mangott continued. Under a new right-wing government, Italy’s sanctions line against Russia could be “radically different”. Italy, along with France and Germany, was once one of those EU states “that wanted to have a moderating effect on the Ukrainian leadership”. Under a right-wing government, “this Italian position will be significantly strengthened.”
Mangott found sharp words for Western politicians who still defend the aggressor state. “I can’t imagine that these people with a certain level of intelligence really approve of Russian policy. No one who has been a political leader can be so blind, so confused,” he said, referring to former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder or former -Minister of Foreign Affairs. Minister Karin Kneissl. Financial interests will probably be decisive for his attitude. At Kneissl, “there are still rumors that she receives money from Russia,” says Mangott, who also asked how she should finance her life. It needs Russia “if it wants to set foot in prosperity again.”
Mangott considers assessments that the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, has already played his last card in the energy war against Europe with the current freeze on gas supplies as premature. There are still deliveries by the Ukrainian network and also by Turkstream, which “will probably be the longest”. Only when deliveries are completely stopped, “then the card is played, then you will see how well the card works,” Mangott said, referring to the possible political consequences of mass demonstrations against sanctions and the collapse of government coalitions.
“It would be a disaster for Putin and he cannot let that happen”
“I suppose we will be dealing with an insufficient supply of gas, with gas rationing, and electricity rationing could occur,” Mangott said when asked where Europe would be at the end of winter. This can also affect individuals. Of course, this weapon from Russia “will have its strongest effect” this winter, while in the coming winters it will become weaker and weaker “to the point of complete irrelevance”.
One of the reasons for the Ukrainian offensive on Kherson is to keep the West in line with the onset of winter. Kyiv wants to show its allies “that it can not only keep the territory, but also win it back”. If trench warfare breaks out in the winter, “the willingness to continue supporting Ukraine could weaken”. Even though many things are still unclear at the moment, there are indications of isolated successes on the Ukrainian side, especially in the northern and central parts of the Kherson region and in the disruption of the Crimean supply routes.
Mangott finds it “authentic” that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also wants to recapture the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia. “I can’t imagine a scenario where Ukraine could do that because losing Crimea would be devastating for Putin. It would be a disaster for Putin and he cannot let that happen.”
Mangott also believes that a Russian capture of the entire Donbass in the near future is unrealistic. This will “definitely” not be possible until the current date of September 15th. In any case, the war would last “many months longer”. “If it becomes a war of attrition with an unchanged front line, it could take a long time,” the expert said. (The conversation was led by Stefan Vospernik/APA) © APA