According to British defense officials, Russia is sacking military commanders to shift blame for failures in Ukraine from the country’s leadership.
The latest intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defense (MOD) found that Colonel-General Alexander Lapin had reportedly been dismissed from his post as commander of Russia’s Central Military District at the end of October.
Major General Alexander Linkov was reportedly appointed acting commander on Thursday, the ministry said in Sunday’s update.
It said Lapin had been “generally criticized for poor performance on the battlefield” by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Putin’s ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner Group, a mercenary force fighting on the Russian side in Ukraine. Both blamed Lapin for the loss of Lyman, a key supply center in eastern Ukraine.
The news follows a string of firings of senior Russian military commanders since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Commanders of the Eastern, Southern and Western Military Districts were replaced earlier this year, the UK Ministry of Defense said.
“These firings set a pattern of blaming senior Russian military commanders for failing to achieve Russian objectives on the battlefield,” she added. “This is probably in part an attempt to isolate and deflect blame from the Russian leadership at home.”
Lapin’s dismissal was not officially confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Vlad Mykhnenko, an Oxford University expert on the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, told Newsweek that “this is quickly becoming a pattern” with every major failure of the Russian army on the front lines.
He said: “Either a humiliating retreat or a devastatingly costly attack creates an uproar on social media, followed by state-controlled television propaganda with supporters of the Russian invasion … crying out for the blood of the offending general and, increasingly, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.” .”
The same cycle repeats itself after Russia failed to capture Pavlivka, a village in the Donetsk region, Mykhnenko said.
“The Russians lost many hundreds of soldiers and a lot of armor, but failed to achieve any of the targets of the attack,” he said. “When the news of Pavlivka broke, the pro-war social media channels, including the Prigozhin and Kadyrov internet bots, launched a new campaign demanding severe penalties against the responsible generals in the Defense Ministry and General Staff. I wouldn’t be surprised if another proverbial head rolled in Moscow.”
But the obvious problem with the Kremlin’s strategy is that “they will run out of generals – scapegoats – as many more failures and withdrawals from Ukraine await them,” Mykhnenko said.
“Furthermore, senior military leaders and senior army generals as a whole will be increasingly demoralized and frustrated by pundits’ attacks on social media and television, and Putin’s tacit approval of criticism. How the generals of the Russian army would react is unclear.”
Alexander Lapin speaks to journalists from a destroyed warehouse in the town of Uqayribat in Syria’s eastern Hama country, September 15, 2017. Maria Antonova/AFP via Getty Images
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, wrote in an assessment on Thursday that Russian media continued to publish “confused” reports of Lapin’s sacking and replacement.
It noted that the press service of the Central Military District had told one outlet that Linkov would temporarily replace Lapin as commander, while unnamed Russian Defense Ministry sources told other outlets that Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev would command “central” forces while Lapin was on a three is -week sick leave.
Meanwhile, milbloggers with ties to Russian state media also recently claimed that Mordvichev would also command the CMD.
“Such incoherent announcements by Russian MoD officials about the possible replacement of Russia’s second most senior commander in Ukraine are highly unusual for a professional military at a critical stage of the war,” the ISW wrote.
In a previous Oct. 29 review, the ISW said conflicting accounts of Lapin “could be an indication that the Kremlin is struggling to control the narrative about its higher military command.”
“Increasing transparency within the Russian information space — led by Chechen siloviki leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the pro-war community — will likely make it more difficult for the Kremlin to hide any changes in command and explain away publicly,” wrote the ISW.
“Kadyrov and Prigozhin have both publicly attacked Lapin on numerous occasions, prompting some milbloggers to point out that other Russian district commanders have received no criticism despite their own mistakes (and firings).”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
Update 11/6/22 11:15 AM ET: This article has been updated with comments from Vlad Mykhnenko.