Today there is a possible turning point in Russia’s military operation in Ukraine: a month into the offensive, and weeks after Moscow had seen things worse than originally planned, bitter Ukrainian resistance could force Kremlin staff to change course, leading to the war.
While the General Staff claims not to rule out “attacks” on Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities, Russia is now happily concentrating its forces on the “complete liberation of Donbass.” This was stated by the head of the special operation in Ukraine, ColonelGeneral Sergei Rudskoy, stating that the “special military operation” ordered by Putin had two “options”: to limit the operation to Donbass or to attack all of Ukraine.
Rudskoy said Russia decided to attack across Ukraine in order to reduce Ukrainian forces so they could not build forces in Donbass. A diversionary maneuver after the reconstruction of Moscow, a diversionary maneuver that caused an incalculable number of deaths: Moscow takes in 1,351 dead soldiers and 3,825 wounded, while the toll charged by Kyiv of over 15,000 casualties speaks only of Russian soldiers. It is for this reason that today’s statement appears as a step aside after an embarrassing performance by the Russian army and also as a shift in the goal towards achieving victory where it really is closer.
As evidenced by the trenches dug by the Russian regiments around their positions, the Moscow army would have decided to settle on the outskirts of the cities Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mykolaiv and attack them with artillery “with the aim of such damage to the military infrastructure, equipment and personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces until the Russian army completely liberated the areas of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk,” Rudskoy said. After gaining complete control of Kherson and the aqueduct clearing Crimea, clashes could then focus on Donbass.
So Russia is thinking about victory, claiming to have destroyed 16 main Ukrainian military airports and 39 arsenals, which contained up to 70% of all stockpiles of military equipment, materials and fuel. Only in the next few days will we see if the fighting on the ground will really show a shift in Russia’s attention to more limited but realistic goals: time is running out as May 9th would have already been chosen as the xdate to celebrate the victory on an important anniversary for Moscow.