BERISLAV, Ukraine (AP) – Russia had the means, motive and opportunity to bring down a Ukrainian dam that collapsed under Russian control earlier this month, according to exclusive drone photos and information from The Associated Press.
Images taken above the Kakhovka Dam and shared with the AP appear to show a car loaded with explosives atop the structure, and two officials said Russian troops are stationed in a key area inside the dam where Ukrainians say the explosion that destroyed it was concentrated. The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The dam’s destruction resulted in deadly floods, endangered the harvest in the world’s breadbasket, threatened the drinking water supply of thousands, and unleashed an environmental catastrophe. Ukrainian commanders said it also dashed some of their plans to seize Russian positions in a counter-offensive now in its early stages.
Each side blamed the other for destroying the dam, but the various Russian claims — it was hit by a missile or destroyed by explosives — don’t explain the blast, which was so powerful it was recorded on seismic monitors in the area .
Russia has benefited from the timing of the massive flooding that followed the blast – although the areas it occupied were also hit by flooding and the fallout may have been more far-reaching than expected.
In the region around the dam, the Dnieper River forms the front line between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the Russians controlling the dam itself.
Two Ukrainian commanders who had been in the area but at different locations told the AP that the rising waters quickly swamped their and Russian positions and destroyed equipment, forcing them to start planning again and give them a much greater distance to come would cover, all in the mud. One spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal more openly the extent of the problems caused by the rising waters.
“It is a common practice to mine places before retreating,” said the other, Illia Zelinskyi, commander of Bugskiy Gard. “In this regard, their actions consisted of disrupting some of our supply chains and making it difficult for us to cross the Dnieper.”
In recent weeks, Ukraine’s armed forces have reported limited success in launching a counteroffensive to retake areas the Russians had held since their February 2022 invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself last week indirectly acknowledged the advantage of his armed forces, but maintained Russia’s denial of responsibility: “It may sound strange, but nonetheless. Unfortunately, this interrupted their counter-offensive in the area.”
Before a meeting of military correspondents, he explained his use of the word “unfortunately” with flying colors: “It would have been better if they had attacked there,” he said. “Better for us because it would have ended very badly for them if they attacked there.”
Kakhovka is one of a series of Soviet-era dams along the Dnieper River built to withstand enormous forces amounting to thousands of pounds of explosives. They were built after the infamous “Dambusters” raids during World War II, which destroyed German dams. For example, the destruction of the Möhne Dam in 1943 required five 4.5-ton custom-made “jump bombs,” according to the Imperial War Museum archives.
Ukraine is not believed to have a single missile of this type.
Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said the Ukrainians probably didn’t have any missiles with a payload greater than about 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms).
Nor does it seem credible that Ukrainian commandos could have smuggled in thousands of pounds of explosives to blow up the dam, which was completely controlled inside and out by Russian soldiers for months.
The day before the structure collapsed on June 6, the Russians had set up a firing position in the dam’s critical engine room, where Ukrhydroenergo, the agency that operates the dam system, says the explosion originated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in October 2022 that the dam was mined.
Zelinskyi, who is not related to the President of Ukraine, confirmed that the explosion appears to have come from the area where the engine room is located. He and an American official familiar with the intelligence service both confirmed that Russian troops had been stationed there for some time. The American spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive material.
The Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank that has been monitoring Russian actions in Ukraine since the start of the war, concludes that “a weighing of evidence, argument and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam .”
In the days leading up to the single blast, videos from Ukrainian military drones showed dozens of Russian soldiers camped relaxed on a bank of the Dnieper, walking back and forth to the dam without cover – suggesting they were confident they had the area under control and especially the dam, which was strategically crucial.
The photos, extracted from Ukrainian drone footage obtained by the AP and dated May 28, showed a car parked on the dam, its roof neatly sliced open to reveal huge barrels with what appeared to be a landmine attached to the top Cable leading to the Russian controlled side of the river. It is not clear how long the car stayed.
A communications officer with the Ukrainian special forces, who also noted that the car appeared to be tampered with, said he believes this served a dual purpose: to stop any Ukrainian advance on the causeway and to amplify the planned blast from the engine room and the top to destroy the dam. The car bomb alone would not have been enough to bring down the dam. The officer spoke on condition that he remain anonymous to protect business confidentiality.
The explosion, detected at 2:54 local time, was registered on Norwegian seismic monitors with a magnitude close to 2. For comparison, a catastrophic explosion in the port of Beirut, killing scores and causing widespread destruction, was registered on the seismic scale as magnitude 3.3 and affected at least 500 tons of explosives.
“That means it’s a significant explosion,” said Anne Strømmen Lycke, CEO of Norway’s earthquake monitoring agency NORSAR.
Within minutes, water from the Kakhovka Reservoir began pouring through the destroyed dam, inundating the river’s sandbar islands and inundating much of southern Ukraine, including Russian-controlled areas.
Immediately after the dam collapsed, some experts noted that the structure was in poor condition, which may have caused the rupture. But the area most obviously in disrepair, a section of roadbed near the edge where Russian forces detonated explosives to block a Ukrainian offensive last fall, was days after most of it collapsed of the dam intact.
Ukrainian intelligence released a wiretapped conversation between a Russian soldier and another person, in which the soldier said, “Our sabotage groups were there.” They wanted to create fear with the dam. It didn’t quite go according to plan.”
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Hinnant reported from Paris. Aamer Madhani in Washington and Illia Novikov in Kiev, Ukraine contributed.
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