Moscow reportedly moved numerous naval units from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. The movement involved two frigates, three submarines, some landing ships and lookouts, according to the Institute for the Study of War and satellite photos. Double explanation. It may be a “withdrawal” to reduce risks, an adjustment necessary due to the numerous attacks on the military site with drones and missiles. One of the attacks caused irreparable damage to a Kilo-class submarine and an amphibious assault ship. Another hit the order, possibly causing casualties. In the past, the Russians had already moored the valuable ships in the port of Sevastopol and thus increased protection. But the setbacks they suffered led them to further solutions. The second scenario assumes routine motives and rotations related to logistical needs and it is therefore not excluded that the task force could return to its traditional base.
If the development continues, it will represent a major victory. But even if it is only temporary, it is still a confirmation of how Kiev has challenged the dominance of the invaders in the maritime domain. The cruises, the kamikaze boats, the drones and the commandos pushed the Russians into a prudent position, keeping the fleet closer to the starting points. This allowed Ukraine to create a corridor for merchant ships needing to load grain. That too was a success that was never stable. In fact, the occupiers could hinder it with mines, old systems coupled with modern weapons. In the past, there have been some incidents in which floating devices and explosions were identified as consequences of intensive use by the two competitors. A danger that emerged in the days following the invasion, when a landing in the Odessa area seemed imminent.
The New Tsar’s navy cruised nearby, displaying the flag and keeping the Kiev forces on their toes. Then the Ukrainians went on the defensive and had to dig trenches and set up obstacles on the beaches. Today the Russians are also under pressure from operations coordinated by the secret service. Most recently there was an attack on positions on the special forces side at Cape Tarchankut in western Crimea. Sixteen Gur raiders arrived aboard eight personal watercraft and retreated after a demonstration. The technical detail is worth mentioning: the jet skis would have covered almost 200 kilometers if they had not been launched from a mother load. However, the occupiers say they repelled them with losses, including the capture of an officer. In any case, Moscow retains the rocket launcher capacity: its Kalibrs provide no respite, they are the harpoons thrown at Ukraine’s infrastructure.
The theater is being closely monitored by NATO thanks to reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft capable of supporting the resistance while remaining in international space. At the same time, Allianz is examining the dossier. The agenda includes an alliance meeting to review the effectiveness of barrier nets against the intrusion of maritime drones or frogmen, listen to proposals and consider proposals. Another intersection, not the only one, of the crisis, new and old. A shelter used in the Second World War, one of the obstacles that our Navy divers – true specialists in this field – had to overcome to penetrate an enemy port. Things haven’t changed. The Russians launched many of these in Sevastopol after the Ukrainians launched their boats while setting up barges around the Kerch Bridge for the same purpose. “Passive” methods combined with sensors, fast hulls, rapid-fire batteries, aerial surveillance with armed helicopters or the old Beriev 12 seaplanes.