According to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine's chaotic withdrawal from the eastern city of Avdiivka, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already flagging morale .
The Russian capture of Avdiivka has proven to be a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the U.S. Congress's failure to authorize more military aid, as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even more difficult it to hold the line.
Estimates of how many Ukrainians have been captured or missing vary and an accurate count may not be possible until Ukraine consolidates new defense lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine's withdrawal estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appeared to be captured or missing. Western officials said the distance appeared to be accurate.
American officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to a collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to mount another major offensive.
But the capture of hundreds of soldiers could change that calculus. American officials have said in recent days that morale among Ukrainian troops has already fallen following a failed counteroffensive last year and the ouster of a top commander. Because of these problems, the officials said, the Ukrainian military is having difficulty recruiting.
Ukrainian military officials have said they want to mobilize up to 500,000 more people, but the request faces political resistance and is blocked in parliament. Capturing hundreds of soldiers, particularly those with battlefield experience, would increase the need for more troops and complicate recruiting efforts.
As a result, the fall of Avdiivka may be more important than it first seemed.
The Ukrainian military command has acknowledged that some soldiers were captured during the retreat from Avdiivka, but has tried to downplay the number and the significance.
On Saturday, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine's military battles in the region, said on the Telegram messaging application that the withdrawal went according to plan, but “in the final phase of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the Ukraine.” During the attack on the enemy, some Ukrainian soldiers were captured.” He did not disclose how many troops were captured.
Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, denied reports that hundreds of soldiers had been captured, calling it misinformation. However, he acknowledged that Russia had captured some military personnel and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.
A senior Ukrainian official insisted that only six soldiers had been captured during the withdrawal from the city. Those Third Separate Assault Brigade soldiers were captured after they ran out of ammunition and lost communications with the Ukrainian military, the official said.
But some soldiers and Western officials said the failure to carry out an orderly withdrawal and the chaos that unfolded on Friday and Saturday as defenses collapsed were directly responsible for what appeared to be a significant number of soldiers being captured.
They said the Ukrainian withdrawal was poorly planned and started too late. The soldiers and Western officials spoke on condition of anonymity about sensitive intelligence assessments that contradict Ukrainian government statements.
Withdrawing under devastating artillery fire, drones and airstrikes is one of the most difficult military maneuvers, challenging commanders to minimize loss of life and allow units to withdraw without giving up more land than intended.
Interviews with soldiers indicate that Ukrainian forces were unprepared for how quickly the Russian advance in Avdiivka gained momentum last week.
Ukraine attempted to buy time for its regular infantry troops to withdraw from the city by deploying its special forces and the elite Third Separate Assault Brigade to cover the withdrawal. But the units were unable to slow the Russian advance or get every Ukrainian soldier out.
Senior Ukrainian officials said Russian forces also suffered heavy casualties in the battle. Russia captured Avdiivka in large numbers, sending troops and armored vehicles until Ukrainian defenses collapsed. Thousands of Russian soldiers were killed and wounded, the officials said.
A chaotic retreat is not inevitable. American strategists believe that a troop withdrawal without major losses would be difficult, but possible if it were carried out in a deliberate, undisturbed operation.
At Avdiivka, Ukraine appeared to have waited too long to withdraw, and the frantic withdrawal quickly became costly.
For the Ukrainians, the withdrawal from Avdiivka was made even more difficult by the fact that Russia had surrounded the city on almost three sides. A single paved road was the cheapest way in and out of town. That route, dubbed the “Road of Life” by Ukrainian troops, came under direct threat earlier this month, making the withdrawal far more dangerous.
As Ukrainian forces began to withdraw, unconfirmed open-source videos and photos showed units retreating under artillery fire and bodies lying strewn along roads and in tree lines. Ukrainian military units have long had difficulty communicating with each other because they often have different radio equipment. Soldiers with knowledge of the withdrawal said the communications problems were a factor in the withdrawal and resulted in soldiers being captured, killed and wounded.
Soldiers interviewed by The New York Times suspected that some units withdrew before others were aware of the withdrawal. This meant that the units that remained behind were at risk of being surrounded by the Russians.
Since the war began nearly two years ago, Russian forces have attempted to encircle and capture Ukrainian forces. While well-prepared defenses and overhead drones have prevented many of these maneuvers from succeeding, the Russian encirclement at Avdiivka appears to have worked. Western officials suspect the maneuver was one of the reasons soldiers were captured during the retreat.
Unconfirmed videos posted on social media also showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian troops in and around Avdiivka. On Sunday, the prosecutor's office in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast said on Telegram that it was opening an investigation “into the shootings of unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Avdiivka and Vesele.”
The Kremlin itself appears to have been unprepared for the speed of the Ukrainian collapse in Avdiivka. On Russian social media, Kremlin propaganda pushed through state-controlled news media often leads the themes, said Jonathan Teubner, executive director of FilterLabs AI, which studies Russian messaging and public opinion. But as Ukrainian defenses collapsed in Avdiivka, discussions on Russian social media began to shift before the Kremlin settled on new messages.
“Russia wasn’t really prepared for it in terms of a prepared propaganda attack,” Teubner said. “They've jumped on it now, but they haven't managed to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign yet.”
Prisoners of war pose one of the greatest challenges to morale in any war. Ukraine has repeatedly pressed Russia to agree to a prisoner exchange.
In November, the Ukrainian government said that 3,574 Ukrainian military personnel were being held captive in Russia.
In January, Ukraine used a Western-supplied Patriot missile to shoot down a Russian cargo plane that officials believed was carrying missiles and ammunition. Russian officials said it was a transport of Ukrainian prisoners of war. American officials said it was likely that some Ukrainian prisoners were on the plane.