According to a US-based think tank, Russian President Vladimir Putin could use nuclear threats to deter a Ukrainian counter-offensive against the occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its July 19 war assessment that should the Kremlin annex the territories currently occupied by Russian forces, Putin could declare, directly or indirectly, that Russian doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in defense of Russian territory applies to newly annexed areas.
Russia’s military doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons on battlefields in response to any non-nuclear attack on Russian territory. Versions of the doctrine released since 2000 state that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any attacks by weapons of mass destruction” on Russia and its allies.
“Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with a nuclear attack if Ukrainian counter-offensives to liberate Russian-held territories continue,” the ISW said in its campaign report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a weekly meeting with government ministers at the Novo Ogaryovo state residence October 29, 2014 in Moscow, Russia. Putin could use nuclear threats to deter a Ukrainian counter-offensive against occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a US-based think tank has said. Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
The think-tank’s assessment comes after senior US security official John Kirby warned on Tuesday that Russia is moving toward annexing areas in Ukraine currently held by Russian forces — a move that includes the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula by Russia in 2014 would reflect.
“Russia is starting to put out a version of what you might call an annexation playbook,” Kirby said at a White House news conference, citing newly declassified intelligence.
There is “rich intelligence and public evidence” that suggests Russia plans to annex occupied Ukrainian territory, including Kherson, Zaporizhia and all Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as early as this fall, Kirby said, citing Russian efforts to introduce the Russian ruble, install proxies and force some residents to apply for Russian passports.
Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Defense Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Sunday there would be a “quick and hard crackdown” that would mean Ukraine’s demise if Crimea were attacked.
The ISW said Putin could believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his “catastrophic invasion of Russia shattered conventional deterrence capabilities,” adding that previous Russian indications of Moscow’s readiness to use nuclear weapons ” proved hollow.”
“Ukraine and its Western partners may have a narrowing window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive on occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory,” the think tank said.
The July 19 assessment also noted that the Kremlin is facing increasing pressure to call for a general mobilization. Declaring war on Ukraine would allow Putin, under Russian law, to draft conscripts and mobilize reserve forces. Putin has described the ongoing conflict as a “special military operation” against Ukraine.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.