Russia plans to take over neighboring Belarus by 2030, according to a document allegedly leaked from Russia’s presidential administration.
The document was obtained and reported on by an international consortium of journalists from news organizations such as Yahoo News and Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The document, reportedly from the summer of 2021, contains a plan to infiltrate Belarus politically, economically and militarily. Planning is in various stages: in the short term or up to 2022, in the medium term or up to 2025 and in the long term, i.e. up to 2030.
The long-term plan envisages the formation of a joint “Union State” under Russian leadership.
According to an agreement from 1999, both countries are already formally part of a so-called “Union State”. The agreement creates a legal basis for integration between the two countries.
However, media outlets that obtained the document in question suggest that Russia’s plans are more aimed at annexing Belarus by 2030.
What does the document say?
The 17-page document entitled “Russian Federation’s Strategic Goals in Belarus” speaks of reducing Western influence in the region and sealing itself off from NATO.
Should such a plan ever come to fruition, Russia would become immediate neighbors of Lithuania and Poland, two NATO and EU members.
Belarus, once part of the former Soviet Union, has maintained close ties with Russia after the Union’s collapse thanks to the policies of Alexander Lukashenko, who has presided over the country since 1994.
Belarusian opposition supporters hold an unauthorized rally after the contested 2020 presidential electionCredit: Natalia Fedosenko/Imago Images/ITAR-TASS
The country’s most recent election in 2020 was contested and has seen the jailing of opposition candidates and nationwide protests after Lukashenko declared himself the winner. Thousands were arrested in a subsequent raid.
The US and the European Union responded by no longer recognizing Lukashenko as the country’s president.
How authentic is the document?
Both Yahoo News and Süddeutsche Zeitung said they spoke to analysts and experts who confirmed the document’s authenticity.
An unnamed Western official was quoted by Yahoo News as saying the document was prepared by the Presidential Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation.
The sub-department of Putin’s presidential administration was established in October 2018. The source told Yahoo News that the department has been tasked with proposing new strategies to achieve Russia’s strategic goals in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.
An unnamed Western intelligence officer told Yahoo News that Russian intelligence and the armed forces all contributed to the plan.
Russia and Belarus continue to strengthen military ties
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Material from the AFP news agency contributed to this report.
Edited by: Amanda Rivkin