CNN –
The Russian flag was raised in several parts of Donetsk's eastern city of Avdiivka, hours after Ukrainian forces managed a hasty retreat from the ruins of a city they had defended for a decade.
But the Ukrainian army is under pressure at several other points along the front line, which stretches around 1,000 kilometers from the border with Russia in the north to the Black Sea.
The Russian military may have sensed a window of vulnerability in its opponent. Ukraine's better units are exhausted after two years of fighting; there is a new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyj; and Ukrainian troops lack shells and are vulnerable to relentless air attacks.
While the goal of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the armed forces is to regain all illegally occupied territory, Ukrainians are now fighting to stop the Russians from expanding the roughly 18% of Ukrainian territory they already own.
President Vladimir Putin's stated goal is to conquer all of the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, but few believe he will stop if more opportunities arise.
In October the Russians launched a determined push to capture Avdiivka. But they also attack near Bakhmut and Mariinka (also in Donetsk) and towards Kupyansk in the north.
On the southern front, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian and Ukrainian sources report a massive Russian deployment in the area where the Ukrainians planned to launch their counteroffensive last summer. According to some analysts, a force of 50,000 men was assembled.
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The Ukrainian military's daily update provides a glimpse of the firepower the Russians are now deploying. According to the General Staff, there were 82 combat missions on Saturday alone. “The enemy launched a total of 13 rocket and 104 air strikes and fired 169 times from multiple rocket launchers at Ukrainian military positions and residential areas.”
The update is full of words like “repelled” and “held back” as Ukrainian units in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions hold on to their defensive positions.
Ivan Tymochko, chairman of the Reserve Council of the Ukrainian Land Forces, said on Saturday: “Despite the fact that our attention is focused on Avdiivka, very fierce fighting is actually taking place in the Lyman-Kupyansk sector. [and] near Bakhmut. The enemy has heavily massed forces in the Robotyne area, another hotspot area on the Southern Front.
The Ukrainians are trying to build new defensive positions on a hill north of Avdiivka. Analysts do not expect an immediate Russian attack on these lines as troops regroup, but they could capture some remote villages.
The months of destruction caused by Russian artillery and air strikes in Avdiivka left the Ukrainians virtually without cover. The same Russian approach – destroying everything in its path – finally worked in the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in 2022.
A soldier in the area, Yehor Firsov, told Ukrainian television on Saturday: “Just think: what is ours [small] FPV drone against a 500kg or a huge 1 ton bomb hitting a building and destroying it? So the enemy gained an advantage, destroyed everything and advanced into the city.”
Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers build a makeshift fortress near Avdiivka.
After taking what remains of the city, the Russians could release some units to increase attacks on the ruins of nearby Mariinka. In recent days they have gained ground south of the city and the Ukrainian defenses towards Vuhledar are now under heavy pressure. The Ukrainian military reported Sunday that the Russians “made 23 attempts to break through our defenses” the previous day.
The Russian target west and northwest of Bakhmut is the small town of Khasiv Yar, located on a commanding hill within artillery range of the towns of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. Last week, the spokesman for the Ukrainian military in the area, Illia Yevlash, said that the Russians had shelled Ukrainian positions more than 600 times in one day.
“We need more grenades, thousands and thousands of grenades, especially 155mm grenades,” Yevlash said. “The enemy is trying to attack from the flanks. They are using small attack groups because heavy equipment cannot move across the fields due to the icy conditions and impassable roads.”
Ukraine still holds almost half of the Donetsk region, the capture of which has been a consistent goal of President Vladimir Putin's invasion. It took the Russians months to conquer just 30 square kilometers in and around Avdiivka.
Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu/Getty Images
Ukraine still hopes to retake territory lost to Russia, but is under pressure on the front lines.
The first Russian exploration of Ukrainian lines has already begun in the south. According to the Ukrainian military, three Russian tanks were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were killed on Saturday in a Russian offensive that “involved 30 pieces of equipment and a fairly large number of enemy troops” in more than a dozen attempts to break through Ukrainian lines.
“There were no position losses in the Zaporizhia sector. The enemy suffered significant losses. We are holding back the enemy’s offensive.”
But Russian military bloggers had a different opinion, saying that the Russian 42nd and 76th divisions had advanced about two kilometers near the village of Robotyne, which the Ukrainians captured last summer, and attacked Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery and airstrikes.
Here as elsewhere, the Russians have vastly expanded the use of 500-kilogram glide bombs from aircraft, against which Ukrainian front-line troops have little protection.
A Russian blogger, “Archangel Special Forces Z,” claimed that “Airborne troops are conducting strong artillery preparation in the direction of Zaporizhzhia!” Attack operations are already underway in some areas.”
Given the difficult outlook for Ukrainian troops at the front, the Russians are losing an extraordinary number of men killed or wounded.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that for every Ukrainian soldier lost, seven Russians would be killed in Avdiivka.
The Ukrainian military command claimed it caused “casualties of 20,018 people, 199 tanks and 481 armored fighting vehicles” between January 1 and February 15 in the region from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhzhia.
Although this cannot be confirmed, US officials have previously said that the Russians suffered heavy losses due to poor tactics.
But the Russian way of war has long been to send thousands of people into battle regardless of losses, and their supply of military manpower is much larger than that of the Ukrainians.
With Ukraine currently lacking weapons and ammunition because the U.S. Congress has failed to pass a $60 billion aid package, the Russians are also making clear their significant advantage in artillery, armor and air power.