Then-Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev (left) chats with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2019. Mikhail Svetlov (Getty Images)
Moscow this Thursday threatened to deploy nuclear weapons along with the Nordic countries if Finland and Sweden join NATO, they have hinted at in recent days. “There will be no more talk of a non-nuclear status for the region [mar] Baltic States, the balance must be restored,” said Vice-President of the Russian Security Council and former President Dmitry Medvedev. However, the countries of the region warn that the zone is not demilitarized and Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad enclave. “The international community is aware of this,” replied Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvidas Anusauskas.
In addition to threatening to send nuclear weapons, Medvedev has also argued that accession would mean Russia deploying more troops in the region. “If Sweden and Finland join NATO, the land border will be doubled and of course needs to be strengthened. It will be necessary to drastically increase land and air defenses and deploy significant naval forces in the Gulf of Finland,” said the former Russian president and former prime minister.
Although Sweden and Finland are not or not yet members of NATO, their representatives frequently attend the meetings held by the members of the transatlantic organization. Cooperation between the two Nordic countries and the alliance has increased in recent years; Finnish and Swedish soldiers have taken part in military exercises organized by NATO – such as last March in northern Norway – and since the bombs began falling in Ukraine, ministers (foreign and defense ministers) have attended all transatlantic group meetings that prompted the alliance’s secretary-general , Jens Stoltenberg, that the 30 NATO members would welcome the two Nordic countries with open arms if they decided to take this step.
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“It’s a decision that they have to make out of their autonomy and sovereignty,” said Stoltenberg last week before the last meeting of foreign ministers. Although I also emphasize that “they could easily integrate into the organization if they decide to take the plunge,” a phrase, this last one, that almost sounded like a formal invitation to join. “I am sure that we will find a way to address the concerns you may have about the time between the possible application and the final ratification,” stressed the Norwegian before a scenario involving Russian threats and the The fact that this is the umbrella of collective security, which ensures that if there is aggression against a member of the alliance, everyone reacts in its defense would not yet be in place.
The latter suggests there could be a fast track to entry for Sweden and Finland. Faced with this, NATO is reminded that the Alliance has a number of common values, such as democracy, which are accredited in the case of the two Nordic countries. This starting point would give them an advantage over other states awaiting accession, such as Georgia, which also has two conflict zones on its territory. “There are no countries that are closer to the coalition,” Stoltenberg continued, referring to the years of cooperation between the two northern European neighbors and NATO, which had become closer especially after the Russian annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014. “Therefore, I believe that the accession process of these countries can be quite fluid, because we know that they are already very close to NATO,” added the secretary-general.
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Nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad
The Lithuanian Defense Minister responded this Thursday to Medvedev’s comments about the deployment of nuclear weapons in the Baltic States: “Russian threats are a bit strange when we know that even without the current situation [Moscú] It has weapons 100 kilometers from our border.” “They have always stored nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad (a Russian enclave on the border with Poland and Lithuania). The international community, the countries of the region, are perfectly aware of this. They use it as a threat,” Anusauskas added to the BNS channel.
Moreover, the nuclear balance in the region could also be altered by the actions of the Kremlin’s most loyal ally, the regime of Aleksandr Lukashenko. In late February, three days after the start of the war in Ukraine, the Belarusian government promoted a constitutional reform that would allow for the use of Russian weapons of mass destruction on its territory bordering three NATO members: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. . Days before the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko and Putin jointly witnessed an exhibition of the wide range of missiles in Moscow that can carry nuclear warheads.
Putin and Lukashenko watched the launch of Russian missiles on a screen in Moscow on February 19. ALEXEY NIKOLSKY (AFP)
Change on the geopolitical chessboard
The Kremlin’s threats against Sweden and Finland have been uninterrupted since late 2021. On December 24, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zajárova warned Stockholm and Helsinki that there would be “serious political and military consequences” if they decided to join the military bloc. Since then, the Kremlin’s intimidating remarks have been repeated almost weekly . However, the chances of Sweden and Finland joining the alliance are now greater than ever. Support for integration has spread across large sections of parliamentary circles in both countries, while various polls show a radical change in public opinion: for the first time, a majority of the population in both countries is in favor of joining NATO. In the Finnish case, the number of citizens willing to leave behind the “non-aligned policy” – as defined by Stockholm and Helsinki – and join the military organization has tripled in four months.
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Wednesday after meeting her Swedish counterpart Magdalena Andersson in Stockholm that Helsinki would decide “in the coming weeks” whether or not to apply to join NATO. The Scandinavian President was more cautious, although she did not deny the possibility that Sweden would formalize its accession bid next summer during the Alliance’s summit, which will be held in Madrid at the end of June.
When Sweden and Finland finally join the military organization, the number of allied countries would increase to 32. And the border between the alliance and Russia would be a little more than twice as long as it is today. The Andersson and Marin governments have announced in recent weeks that they will increase military spending by more than 2% over the coming years – the figure agreed by NATO allies at the 2014 Wales Summit.
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