Wagner Group fighters prepare to leave Rostov in Russia on June 24, 2023 (AFP / Roman ROMOKHOV)
The forces of the Wagner paramilitary group retreated into Russia on Sunday, ending the uprising started by its leader Yevgeny Prigoyine, which shook the Kremlin and exposed, in the eyes of Westerners, “rifts” and “divisions” in the Vladimir Putin camp.
Evgeny Prigoyine, a harsh critic of Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine, will be able to escape any trial and join Belarus, the Kremlin promised, without revealing on Sunday when this exit under the guise of exile is planned and where the tumultuous events are taking place become boss of Wagner.
During a 24-hour expedition that took his militias less than 400 km from Moscow, 200 according to him, he challenged the Kremlin lord head-on before finally ordering his men to return to their bases, he said Report official version, a mediation by the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the only European ally of the Kremlin.
In a sign that the urgency of the crisis had passed, Wagner’s fighters left the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions south of Moscow on Sunday, according to local authorities.
The day before, they had left the military headquarters they were occupying in Rostov (southwest), the nerve center of Russia’s operations in Ukraine, and began retreating so as not to spill “Russian blood,” as Yevgeny Prigoyine put it.
However, the “anti-terror regime” remains in force in the Russian capital and in its region. Large police patrols were deployed along the road from Moscow to the south of the capital and Monday will be a day off in Moscow.
“It’s a normal situation,” says Andrei, a 34-year-old Moscow lawyer. “We live in Russia, so we’re used to being stressed. Not more.”
– “Departments” –
Police and soldiers block part of the access road to Moscow on June 24, 2023 (AFP / Natalia KOLESNIKOVA)
With the mutiny, the Wagner boss had promised to “liberate the Russian people,” specifically targeting his two arch-enemies, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valéri Guérassimov, whom he accuses of sacrificing thousands of people in the Ukraine.
Above all, however, he had questioned the authority of the Kremlin ruler, who had been in power since the end of 1999. He seemed taken aback and raised the specter of a “civil war”.
Scrutinized in all law firms, this crisis is showing “real cracks” at the highest level of the Russian state, the US Secretary of State estimated on Sunday. “The fact that there is someone inside questioning Putin’s authority and directly questioning why he launched this aggression against Ukraine is in itself something very powerful,” added Antony Blinken.
This unprecedented crisis was mentioned by US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a phone exchange, Kiev and Washington said.
French President Emmanuel Macron also felt that Wagner’s uprising showed “the divisions” in the Russian camp and “the fragility of both its armies and its auxiliaries”.
For an adviser to the Ukrainian President, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, “Prigoyine has humiliated Putin/the state and shown that there is no longer a monopoly on the use of force”.
Still from a video published on the Telegram account of the Concord intelligence service of the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin in Rostov, June 24, 2023 (TELEGRAM/@concordgroup_official/Handout)
Extraordinary scene on Saturday night in Rostov, Russia, dozens of residents showed their support for the insurgents and shouted “Wagner, Wagner!” just before they left. However, there was deep relief in the city on Sunday.
“I’ve been following the news all day and I was really concerned. So I’m glad everything turned out well,” Tatiana, a 76-year-old retiree, told AFP.
– Major Weaknesses –
Weakened in the eyes of the West, the Russian regime could count on support from Beijing on Sunday. “As a friendly neighbor and strategic partner, China supports Russia in its efforts to protect the country’s stability,” China’s foreign ministry said, calling the mutiny “an internal matter.”
Moscow has also sought to dispel any notion that this crisis could affect its offensive in Ukraine.
Map showing the location of the M4 highway taken by the Wagner paramilitary group on June 24 towards Moscow (AFP / Patricio ARANA)
The Russian army said on Sunday it had “successfully repelled” attacks by Kiev forces in four areas of the Ukrainian front.
To the east, around Bakhmout, a town captured by Wagner’s forces in May, Ukrainian soldiers saw little change after the failed coup.
“Most troops understand that this is a circus that the Russians have not left,” one of them, 26-year-old Nazar, told AFP.
During his call with Joe Biden, Ukraine’s president said he “discussed seeking to deepen defense cooperation” to support the counteroffensive launched by Kiev.
– Dangerous game –
However, according to experts, the mutiny in Russia could have an impact, at least psychologically, on the course of the war, in which Wagner’s militiamen took an active part.
“Prigozhin’s anger against the elite could spill over into the Russian military,” said Lucian Kim of the American Wilson think tank.
The Kremlin tried to avoid this scenario by also promising impunity to Wagner’s mercenaries who participated in the rebellion, thus showing unusual leniency.
Wagner Group fighters board a vehicle in Rostov, Russia, June 24, 2023 (AFP/Roman ROMOKHOV)
If the terms of the compromise between the Kremlin and Wagner boss remain a subject of speculation, the Belarusian President has played a key role.
It’s a prestigious win for him, but he may regret the award when he sees Wagner’s lumbering leader arrive at his home, analysts say.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda responded on Sunday by saying that if Yevgeny Prigoyine does arrive in Belarus, NATO must “strengthen” its eastern flank.
In an unusual way, Russian authorities have also recommended the media give their staff a day off on Saturday after an “emotionally draining and tense” day.