The quantum leap in military support to Kiev is tightening the noose around the Kremlin’s neck. From the tanks promised by Britain and France, to the Patriot guaranteed by the US and Germany, to the cluster bombs sent by Turkey, to the powerful Samp-T anti-missile shield that was supposed to arrive from Italy. The “offensive” turn of the NATO aid irritates the Tsar, who flexes his muscles by testing the super torpedo Poseidon. And to sever Euro-Atlantic support, he unleashes the usual propaganda to the rhythm of fake news and blowouts. But now, forced to ration artillery strikes due to scarce supplies and weakened by continued failures in the field, Moscow is playing the ransom, symbolically at least, in the melee for a tract of land in Donetsk sandwiched between Bakhmut and Soledar.
When “Russia’s defeat in Ukraine becomes more and more likely” – he told IlGiornale.it Robert D Kaplanone of America’s greatest geopolitical analysts, professor at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, former member of the Pentagon Defense Council, twice nominated among Foreign Policy’s “100 Best Thinkers” in the world – the West must ask itself if it is willing to take side effects to face things he might not have expected.
As she teaches, a nation’s weight and destiny are often written in its geographic location. Why is Ukraine so important?
“Ukraine was part of both the Romanov Empire and the Soviet Empire. In Russian eyes, Ukraine belongs to the “Russians” and is the birthplace of Kievan Rus’ in the Middle Ages. Without Ukraine, Russia remains more of a Eurasian empire than a European empire.”
So what is at stake, for Moscow and for the West?
“In addition to geopolitical interests, the Kremlin has significant emotional ties to Ukraine. For the West, an independent Ukraine effectively solves the problem of the Russian Empire bordering Europe. An independent Ukraine would significantly weaken Moscow’s international weight.”
Robert D Kaplan
You wrote that “the disintegration of autocracies always comes at a price”. What will be the consequences of a possible defeat of Russia in Ukraine?
“Autocracies and empires are born out of chaos, and when they collapse, they leave chaos in their wake. History does not guarantee or teach us a solution to this dilemma. War is ultimately a form, a way of doing politics. And the question is, how will Russia’s poor military performance affect Moscow’s policies? We can’t say for sure. But we should prepare for a Russian defeat on the battlefield. This could potentially result in a weakened Russian government or even a scramble to succeed Vladimir Putin, leading to a destabilizing power vacuum rather than a democratic transition.
“To save democracy, we need a few good dictators.” Are you still convinced that it is also the solution for post-Putin Russia?
“Recall that Moscow is a power with many nuclear weapons, both strategic and tactical. Therefore, Western interests should consist in avoiding the risks of a context of anarchy and ungovernability within Russia itself. But the longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more difficult it becomes for Putin to retain control of his “peripheral empire” in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Far East. A detachment that someone could exploit”.
What if “when empires or great powers collapse, chaos and war ensue,” the conflict in Ukraine is a symptom of the collapse of Western hegemony?
“We can say that the western decline is relative. And for all the problems in the West, Russia and China face far greater difficulties. In short, I wouldn’t consider the West to be excluded.”