A Sukhoi Su-34 of the Russian Air Force.
Via social media
Hamstrung by poor training, basic armament and a culture of centralized control, the Russian Air Force struggled to support Russian ground forces during the first two years of Russia's larger war against Ukraine.
But in recent weeks things have changed in the sky over Avdiivka – a former Ukrainian fortress northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
Russian pilots pounded Avdiivka in weeks of firing satellite-guided glide bombs from 25 miles away before a dozen Russian brigades and regiments finally – after four months of costly attacks – forced the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade to emerge from the ruins Ukraine to retreat to the west almost lifeless city.
Now that the Russians have finally figured out how to provide air support to their ground forces, we can expect them to repeat this tactic in other parts of the 600-mile front line. The Avdiivka glide bombing attack “could signal a shift in Russian operations elsewhere along the front line,” said the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, DC
The Russian Air Force has a thousand front-line fighter-bombers – about ten times as many fighter-bombers as the Ukrainian Air Force. However, this overwhelming superiority did not translate into complete control of the air over Ukraine when Russian field armies attacked beginning in February 2022.
“From the beginning of March [2022]The [Russian air force] “has lost the ability to operate in Ukrainian-controlled airspace except at very low altitudes due to its inability to reliably suppress or destroy the increasingly effective, well-dispersed and mobile Ukrainian surface-to-air missile systems,” said Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling in a November 2022 report for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
In the first year of the larger war, Russian pilots could not risk flying near the front line. However, they also lacked long-range precision munitions to support ground forces from a safe distance. Ukraine's air defenses had effectively neutralized Russia's air advantage.
But it didn't last. The Russians attached wings and satellite guidance equipment to KAB or FAB bombs weighing 550, 1,100, and 3,300 pounds and developed a simple glide-bombing capability. A Sukhoi fighter-bomber flies high and fast and can fire two or more KABs at targets 25 miles away. This is far enough to reduce, if not eliminate, the risk of Ukrainian SAMs.
The KAB glide bomb quickly became one of Russia's most fearsome weapons. Ukrainian troops described the unique horror of huge, silent bombs that exploded without warning – and with enough firepower to collapse buildings and pulverize bunkers.
As the Russian army concentrated much of its fighting power on an advance toward Avdiivka, the KAB came into its own. The Ukrainian 110th Brigade in Avdiivka counted on the city's hundreds of multistory buildings to double as elevated observation posts and firing positions.
The Russian KABs systematically destroyed many buildings. “These bombs completely destroy every position” wrote Egor Sugar, a soldier with the 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade, who covered the 110th Brigade's withdrawal from Avdiivka on Friday. “All buildings and structures simply turn into a pit after the arrival of just one KAB.”
At the height of the airstrikes this weekend, Sukhois dropped an incredible 250 KABs in 48 hours. Soon the 110th Brigade had no place to hide in the ruins of Avdiivka. The exhausted brigade fled west this weekend, surrendering the smoldering city to the also exhausted but more numerous Russian regiments and brigades.
According to ISW, it was probably the first time in two years that the Russian Air Force played a decisive role in Russian ground operations.
But it wasn't inevitable. And it wasn't in vain. On Saturday, a Ukrainian missile battery – possibly one of its three armed with U.S.-made Patriot missiles – shot down three Russian Sukhois 60 miles east of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military claims A fourth Sukhoi was shot down on Sunday.
The Ukrainians clearly have the means to shoot down glide bombers and prevent another devastating KAB bombardment. What they lack is capacity. The United States was the largest supplier of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. But starting in October, Republicans in the US Congress close to Russia began blocking support for the Ukrainian war effort.
Now the inventory of Patriots with a range of 90 miles in Ukraine is falling “to a critical level” accordingly Anton Gerashchenko, former advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry.
It is possible that the arrival of Ukraine's first new ex-European F-16 fighter jets in the coming weeks or months will help offset dwindling Patriots.
“The main tasks of these aircraft are likely to be to further push back Russian bombers firing missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, as well as to intercept Russian tactical aviation,” said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army general. “This includes destroying or impairing the effectiveness of Russian aircraft that fire glide bombs.”
But in order to shoot at the glide bombers, the F-16s have to fight their way past Russian fighters and through Russian air defenses. It's risky.
No, the Patriots are Ukraine's best defense against the Russian KABs. And in the absence of the patriots, the Russians will undoubtedly try to repeat their successful bombing of Avdiivka.
More Ukrainian cities will face a storm of Russian glide bombs. More Ukrainian cities will fall.