The new ways of diplomacy are those of the gas. Methane, treated like tin for years, has started glowing again. As. Blue gold, like water but different. On his final leg of the tour of the producing countries, Minister Luigi Di Maio stopped in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, which carries gas from the Shah Deniz field to Melendugno in Puglia via the Tanap and then the Tap pipeline. Last year, 7.2 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas flowed into the Salento pipeline. Di Maio promised to add another 1.5 to 2 billion. Every extra molecule of methane the government can snatch from suppliers is a step toward independence from the nearly 30 billion cubic meters that flow each year from the Siberian fields through Ukraine through the Tag gas pipeline and from Tarvisio to Italy.
Russian gas, EU: “Embargo is a possibility”, no from Berlin
PASSAGE TO THE NORTHEAST
Disconnect the hose from the Russia however, it is not easy. Replacing 30 billion cubic meters in a few months is a very difficult task. Almost impossible if the storage areas have to be filled with another 12 billion cubic meters in a short time. Especially when gas has become an object of desire for many states. But Rome moved first. And it moved well. Thanks above all to the activism of Eni and its CEO Claudio Descalzi, who made the old energy ties weigh heavily, especially with African countries. Algeria is ready to deliver 9 billion meters more gas almost immediately. They will arrive from the Mazara del Vallo entrance through the Transmed gas pipeline, through which 21 billion cubic meters per year already flow today. Billions more cubic meters could arrive from Libya through the Greenstream, the pipe connecting the Wafa and Bahr Essalam fields. Then there is the liquefied gas. The LNG that arrives by ship but then has to be converted back to the gaseous state in order to feed it into the Italian grid. To date there are only three works dedicated to this purpose: one in Panigaglia (La Spezia), one in Rovigo and the last one in Livorno.
THE ROUTE OF THE SHIPS
Together they have a maximum regasification capacity of 16 billion cubic meters. The one currently used is around 10 billion. In short, through these points, another 6 billion cubic meters of gas could enter Italy. Snam has been commissioned by the government to buy two ships capable of converting LPG. If he succeeds in this task, another 10 billion cubic meters of processing capacity would be added. But of ships, Snam would only have found one for the time being. And the times to get it operational are not short. In return, Enel has decided to revive the Porto Empedocle project. But time is ticking here too. But the question is also different. Where was all this liquefied gas supposed to come from? US President Joe Biden has promised that the US will supply Europe with 15 billion cubic meters of shale gas extracted overseas by crushing rock with highpressure water. But 15 billion is little, especially when shared with the other countries of the Old Continent, starting with thirsty Germany. Better look elsewhere. As Italy has already done. Eni will divert LNG volumes already available into the country. About 3 billion cubic meters of LPG will arrive in 2022 from the Damietta fields in Egypt and Qatar, and about another 5 in 2023. From the Congo SixLegged Dog project, another 5 billion cubic meters will reach full capacity, maybe a billion or two immediately . Something, maybe a few billion, will come out of Angola and Mozambique. Then there is internal production. That of the very rich Adriatic, which Italy’s “no triv” policy has left entirely to Croatia’s exploitation. The old fields that already exist will contribute a few billion cubic meters.
THE PLAN B
Will all of this be enough to prevent the measures envisaged by the state of emergency from becoming necessary next winter? Without rationing it will probably be difficult. This can also be seen in the measures taken by the government. Italy declared a state of “prealert back in February. But actually it’s as if he had already declared a state of emergency. The decree approved by the government assigns the Ministry of Economic Development the ability to implement the emergency measures even without declaring their status.
Coalfired power plants have been reactivated, a measure that alone could save 34 billion cubic meters of gas. But the “weapon” that the government has loaded and keeps on the table offers the opportunity to implement draconian gassaving measures overnight. Measures that the “emergency plan for the Italian natural gas system” defines as “not in line with the market”.
THE TEN INTERVENTIONS
These are ten interventions that require the collaboration of everyone, from operators to industrial companies and citizens. First, all operators of the “lines” and regasifiers would be asked to make the entire capacity available. Then there would be limiting the use of methane to generate electricity where it is possible to substitute coal and fuel oil for gas. In addition, there would be a mandatory reduction in gas withdrawals from industrial consumers. All, not just those that can be “interrupted by contract. The next step would be mandatory lowering of temperatures for civilian use. In short, turn down the thermostats on the radiators in homes and offices. Then it would be up to the other companies.
The delivery obligation only remains for socalled “protected customers, i.e. families and small businesses. But something would change for them too. The price hedging, i.e. the quarterly calculation by Arera, would no longer apply. LNG would be used more to reduce peaks. Strategic reserves would also be addressed. And we would make every effort to contact suppliers for new quantities to be imported by pipe. Finally, the countries with whom we have signed solidarity pacts would be asked for help. Like the one with Germany that we’ve been trying to conclude for a few weeks, but which is made more difficult by the fact that Berlin needs more gas than Rome.
So the truth is that while the government has not formally declared a state of emergency, it is actually acting as if it already has. Because the news from the battlefield in Ukraine is approaching the moment when it will be necessary to part with Moscow more and more quickly. And you can’t show up to the appointment unprepared.
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