Is the tide really turning in the Ukraine war – in favor of the Ukrainians?
GENERAL CARNER: Every day that this development continues, one must speak of a turning point. Russian forces retreated to the east. This disorderly withdrawal also likely took place in a very chaotic manner, leaving behind vast amounts of weapon systems: these cannot be replaced 1:1 in the short term. A regrouping in the east towards the Donbas would be more or less ineffective because the weapons systems are absent. With the recapture of the strategically important city of Kupyansk, Ukraine also took possession of an important transport hub – several supply lines to the Donbas pass through this city. Russian defenses in the east are significantly weakened.
Did the Ukrainian military so brilliantly deceive the Russians, or is the Russian army so disorganized?
RAM: It is probably a mixture of both: the deception of the Ukrainians, which the Russians obviously did not recognize, according to which the main attack would take place in the south, is now taking its revenge. Therefore, strong Russian units were transferred to the south. With this step, the Russians also exposed the front in the east. Ukraine is apparently also managing to neutralize the Russian air force with a powerful anti-aircraft system at the spearheads of the Ukrainian attack. Almost nothing flies anymore – and what does fly is shot down relatively quickly. On the Russian side, reconnaissance—strategically, operationally, tactically—apparently failed completely. The deployment of such strong forces by Ukraine should not go unnoticed.
Do you think the Ukrainians can now keep up the pressure so strongly?
RAM: I don’t think it can go on like this. Ukraine will also have to take an operational break at some point, mainly for logistical and supply purposes. This is standard procedure: you advance a certain distance from the operational base, then there are short breaks to replenish forces.
Gerald Karner is a military specialist, former officer and management consultant – he worked in the army until 2006, most recently with the rank of brigadier. © (c) Jürgen Fuchs
Do we need more Western weapons systems?
RAM: Without an additional supply of Western weapons systems, the attack will not be sustained. Ukraine urgently needs main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, anti-aircraft tanks. For example, additional, obviously very effective American HIMARS systems (truck-chassis multiple rocket launcher light artillery system, note) are also to be delivered.
Is Russian troop morale crumbling?
RAM: That’s how it is. The Kremlin can’t do anything at the moment, that milk has already been spilled. The central problem: The relationship between superiors and subordinates in the Russian military does not correspond to Western standards. It is a fact that at the beginning of the attack, the soldiers “from below”, who also had to bear the brunt of the fighting, did not even know when they crossed the border and it was no longer a maneuver – until they were shot at. No information about the military leadership’s goals and intentions! The treatment of contract soldiers and recruits has always been pretty bad. In addition, there is widespread corruption at all levels of the Russian armed forces. But now it is also becoming clear to simple soldiers that the skills of superior and superior leadership are very limited. Trust is waning – not just in the battalion itself, in the company itself or in the regiment itself, but also in the generals: this is fatal. Withdrawal became more or less an escape.
Do Russians have reservations?
RAM: To this day, I am not aware of any deployment of Russian operational reserves anywhere. This casts a very bad light on military leadership.
Does this not automatically mean a loss of confidence in the political leadership?
RAM: Naturally. Many ordinary Russian soldiers are now also asking themselves: what were you really thinking when you started the whole thing?
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also massively counted internally?
RAM: People still don’t dare to criticize Putin personally. However, general criticism of the entire plan is subliminally expressed in various programs on state television.
Can he be expected to replace the highest level military?
RAM: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov are indeed ready to be replaced. Putin is hesitant, however, because doing so would, in a sense, also admit that the attack is not going according to plan. However, there is at least one source – unverified – that a general would have directly criticized Putin at a high-level meeting. He was then apparently “turned off” in his statements, but in principle there is already a change here.
What new forces can Vladimir Putin still turn to?
RAM: Some time ago, Putin issued a decree allowing the recruitment of an additional 137,000 men. But this does not mean that these forces will already be in the field in a few weeks – on the contrary. The more that is known about the course of the war, the less successful recruitment campaigns will be. We know that many contract soldiers come because they smell like money: when life is at stake, money is no longer the deciding factor. Ukraine’s resistance is dramatic and frightening.
So time is playing against the Russians more and more?
RAM: Absolutely. If the Ukrainians can keep the Russians under pressure – and with as few casualties as possible – Ukraine’s time will speak for itself. Russian resistance in the east may not have been very strong. To paraphrase Winston Churchill: “It’s not the end. Not even the beginning of the end. But it could be the end of the beginning.”
What is the situation in southern Ukraine?
RAM: In the south, Ukrainian forces appear to have suffered heavy casualties, but continue to pressurize the Russians in an offensive manner. It remains to be seen to what extent events in the east will also affect those in the south. If the Ukrainians manage to conquer the area west of the Dnipro and encircle larger Russian groups, it will be very difficult for Russia to hold anything back.
Will winter be the crucial moment, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sees it?
RAM: If the Ukrainians get one or two more similar attacks – for example, towards the Donbass – the Russian political leadership will have to think very quickly about how to react, for example, with an offer to negotiate. We do know, however, that Zelenskyi has categorically ruled out that Ukrainian territory be traded. In his opinion, it will continue as long as his country is occupied by the Russians. The fact that winter may bring the decision is also supported by the assumption that Western weapons systems will be available to a much greater extent and integrated into the structures of the Ukrainians.
Can it be assumed that the Russians will continue to deliberately destroy civilian infrastructure, as they did recently when there were widespread power failures in eastern Ukraine?
RAM: I fear they will try. The question is how many cruise missiles will still be available in the end: Russia is known to have problems producing them in sufficient quality and quantity, also because of sanctions. The Russian type of warfare is as typical as it is outrageous: if the sources, which are good in themselves, are correct, the plants have already been shot down with twelve cruise missiles – that dozen cost about $100 million. The Russians direct their attacks against civilian infrastructure and not against the military opponent. They squander their most important capabilities to take revenge and punish the populace. This is contrary to all military principles.
If the war gear left behind by the fleeing Russian units is still intact, can it be used by the Ukrainians?
RAM: It is clear. The photos I’ve seen show material partially intact, even in several arsenals. This might not be used on the front lines, but it’s a welcome replacement for lost war gear.