According to a US think tank, the Kremlin is concerned about the political impact of war discontent in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.
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Support for the Ukraine war in Russia has reached its lowest point, according to a recent poll.
Independent pollster Chronicle found that the number of Russians who fully support the invasion has almost halved since February 2023.
Their poll found that there are far more peace advocates than war advocates, with more Russians supporting the withdrawal of the country’s troops from Ukraine than not.
Discussing the findings, the Institute for War Research (ISW) said on Friday the Kremlin was “likely concerned” about how changing attitudes to war could affect Russia’s 2024 presidential election.
The US-based think tank claimed Vladimir Putin would focus his re-election campaign on “Russia’s alleged domestic stability and increasing criticism of the West” rather than focusing on the war.
Conducting polls in authoritarian states like Russia is notoriously difficult. The Kremlin has criminalized criticism of the war and spends millions on war propaganda, meaning it may not reflect the reality of the situation.
But Chronicles, founded by Russian opposition politician Aleksei Miniailo, says its polls provide an accurate snapshot of public opinion.
The Moscow-based research group asked 1,199 adults across Russia a series of questions in a telephone survey between October 17 and 22.
It found that the number of key war supporters – those who express “consistent” support for the war and want the invasion to continue until it achieves its goals – fell from 22% in February 2023 to 12% fell in October.
The Chronicles poll found that 40% of Russians support withdrawing troops from Ukraine without achieving war goals. This number has remained constant throughout 2023.
Thirty-three percent opposed leaving Ukraine and wanted the war to continue, although that number fell steadily from 47 percent in February to 39 percent in July.
One reason support for the war is falling may be that Russians are increasingly giving in I feel the need and face a bleaker future due to the fallout from the invasion, a separate survey showed.
A Chronicle poll confirmed this, finding that 44% of respondents experienced a decline in family income.
Putin announced a significant increase in military spending this week, with about 30% of the state budget going to the armed forces in 2024.
The survey also showed how the situation affected people’s lives.
More than half of the Russian population (52%) recently suffered from anxiety or depression, up from about a third (32%) in March 2022.
Those with lower incomes were more likely to report negative psychological effects.