The foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine are expected to meet in Turkey on Thursday. These will be high-level negotiations between the two countries since the start of the Russian invasion two weeks ago. They will be discussing the war at a time when Russia is stepping up its airstrikes on civilian targets and the humanitarian situation in a number of Ukrainian cities has deteriorated.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that he hopes a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba “will open the door for a permanent ceasefire.”
Both Russia and Ukraine appear to have softened their stance in recent days, raising hopes that a ceasefire is entirely possible.
The Kremlin has narrowed its demands to focus on Ukraine’s “neutrality” and the status of its occupied regions, and has signaled that President Vladimir V. Putin is no longer in the mood for regime change in Kyiv.
On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested he is open to revisiting his country’s constitutionally mandated aspiration to join NATO and even compromise on the status of Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia.
Mr. Zelensky said Wednesday he expects Mr. Putin to eventually stop fighting and start negotiations after seeing his troops face fierce resistance in Ukraine. Between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops were killed in the two-week-long invasion, a U.S. official said Wednesday, a sharp increase from 3,000 who were estimated at 3,000 just a few days ago.
“I think he sees that we are strong,” Zelenskiy told Vice News during an interview in Kyiv. “He will. We need time.
Thursday’s talks will take place in the Turkish city of Antalya, a coastal region that has been a popular destination for Russian tourists for years.
Turkey is a more neutral country than Belarus, where the first three rounds of negotiations took place. Mr. Erdogan has not sanctioned Russia over the invasion, but his country is a member of NATO and has provided Ukraine with deadly armed drones.
However, the demands of Russia and Ukraine are still far apart.
This week, the Kremlin said it would cease hostilities if Kyiv enshrined neutrality in its constitution and recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of two Russian-backed breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine. This is still far from what Mr. Zelenskiy said he was ready to accept. Russia’s stance could also hurt Mr. Putin’s image at home, opening him up to criticism for fighting a costly war for limited gain.
Even if Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, this would not necessarily mean the end of the war. Analysts warn that both sides could use this to build up forces ahead of further escalation.
Mr. Kuleba said on Wednesday that his expectations from the talks in Turkey were low.
When Mr. Kuleba meets Mr. Lavrov, Vice President Kamala Harris will meet in Warsaw on Thursday with President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland, a NATO ally on Ukraine’s western border. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is visiting Poland this week, will also attend.
The United States and its NATO allies are trying to find ways to help Ukraine defend itself without being drawn into a wider war against Russia. In a sign of how difficult this is proving, the United States and Poland publicly disagreed this week over proposals to send Soviet-era fighter jets into the country.
Gen. Todd D. Walters, head of US European Command, said in a statement early Thursday that the United States “had no plans to facilitate indirect or third-party airlifts of Polish aircraft” to Ukraine.
Giving Ukraine more air defense systems and anti-tank weapons is the most effective way to support the country’s armed forces, General Walters said, and Ukrainian air defense limits the effectiveness of Russia’s significant air capability.
He added that the transfer of fighters from Poland to Ukraine “will not significantly increase the combat capability of the Ukrainian Air Force.” It could also be “mistaken for escalation and could lead to an escalation of Russia’s relationship with NATO.”