BEIRUT, Lebanon. The Syrian police broke into her house and took her husband away. Her eldest son died in the rain of Syrian government shells in her hometown. Therefore, like millions of other Syrians, Hanadi Hafizi fled the country, planning to return after the end of the war.
Ten years later, she is still a refugee in Turkey, where her work at a war wounds center puts her under constant surveillance of the human destruction inflicted by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian patrons: paralysis, missing arms and legs, and deep trauma, from -behind which her patients wonder why such disasters consumed their lives.
“I don’t know what to say to them when they ask me if they will get justice,” said Ms Hafisi, 46. Seriously, what should I tell them? That Bashar will be held accountable? That he will stand trial? Of course not.”
As the world comes to grips with the grim realities of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — bombed-out once-busy areas, civilians killed by shells while trying to escape, speculation about whether Russia will use chemical weapons — many Syrians have watched with horrifying emotion. deja vu and a deep foreboding of what lies ahead.
The Syrian war began 11 years ago this month with an uprising against Assad that has escalated into a multilateral conflict between the government, armed rebels, jihadists and others. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed, millions have fled their homes, and Mr. al-Assad has remained in power thanks in large part to the widespread support he has received from the man now leading the invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) in the Kremlin in Moscow last year with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, who gave the Syrian government broad support during the war. Credit … Photo from Mikhail Klimentiev’s pool
Analysts say the legacy of the war in Syria and Russia’s role in it hangs over Ukraine, with potential lessons for Mr. Putin: “red lines” drawn by the West can be crossed without serious consequences; that diplomacy ostensibly aimed at stopping violence can be used to divert attention from it; and that autocrats can do terrible things and be subject to international sanctions—and still stay in power.
Much of the brutality Mr. al-Assad used to suppress his enemies was documented in real time and sparked outrage that led many to think he would never get away with it.
He sent soldiers and armed thugs to stop the protests by locking up activists and firing live ammunition into the crowd. When the opposition took up arms, its troops shelled, bombed and staged a starvation siege of cities and areas that supported the rebels.
As a result of these actions, a large number of civilians died, and many others were forced to flee. More than half of Syria’s pre-war population was displaced during the war, and 5.7 million refugees remain outside the country.
In August 2013, Mr. Assad’s forces shocked the world by using chemical weapons on rebel-held towns near the capital Damascus, killing more than 1,400 people, US officials said.
Many Syrians expected such a blatant violation of international law to trigger Western military intervention, especially since President Barack Obama called the use of chemical weapons a “red line.”
Residents try to salvage what they can after an apartment building in Kyiv, Ukraine, was shelled on Monday. Credit… to Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
“I was sure that we were witnessing something that very few people had experienced before, for example, those who had witnessed Chernobyl or Hiroshima,” recalls 29-year-old Ibrahim Alfawal, who survived the chemical attack and said it was it was like doomsday.
But he was shocked when the United States did not intervene. Mr. al-Assad’s forces eventually took control of the gassed cities and appear to have paid nothing for his use of banned weapons.
This seems to indicate that Mr. Assad can count on impunity, Mr. Alfawal said, and attacks by Syrian forces on civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, neighborhoods and bakeries where families lined up for bread , have only become more frequent.
In 2015, Mr. Putin sent Russian troops to help Mr. Assad’s beleaguered army, and soon Russian officers were advising Syrian troops, and Russian planes were dropping bombs on Syrian cities with the same impunity as Mr. Assad. .
In Ukraine, Russia has used disinformation campaigns similar to those it launched in Syria, where it falsely branded opposition activists as members of al-Qaeda and accused the rebels of organizing chemical attacks as false flag operations to blame the Syrian government.
“They are using the same concept they used in Syria – lie and stick with it,” Mr. Alfawal said of Russia’s approach to Ukraine.
Chemical attacks in Syria continue. According to Tobias Schneider, a researcher at Global Public Policy, in addition to the two that resulted in a large number of deaths – in the village of Khan Sheikhoun in 2017 and east of Damascus in 2018 – there were at least 350 other chemical attacks. institute in Berlin.
A dead child after an alleged gas attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in rebel-held Idlib, Syria, April 2017. Photo by…Ammar Abdullah/Reuters
Most of these used chlorine, which is not classified as a chemical weapon but can be used as such to intimidate civilians into fleeing.
Although no evidence has emerged that Russian troops used chemical weapons in Syria, researchers believe Mr. Putin allowed Mr. al-Assad to do so.
“It is absolutely certain that the Russian government is at least aware of and probably facilitated the use of chemical weapons by the Syrians, mainly using chlorine,” Mr. Schneider said.
There is no indication that chemical weapons were used in Ukraine, but watching the war there, many Syrians see signs that Mr. Putin is using parts of the Syrian scenario.
The Russians are “ready to gobble up the green and the dry,” said Radwan Alhomsi, a Syrian activist in southern Turkey, using an Arabic idiom meaning “destroy everything.” “They don’t care about the international community or anything. We have seen this in Syria. School burnings are not new to us. This is the land they want to take, and they will take it.”
Waiting for UN food aid at the Al-Yarmouk camp, south of Damascus, Syria, January 2014
European analysts point to differences between the wars in Syria and Ukraine, which could lead to different reactions in the West. Unlike Mr. Putin, Mr. al-Assad fought to regain control of his own country, not to take over one of his neighbors. Unlike Syria, Russia is a nuclear power, which complicates the issue of military intervention.
And while the United States and its European allies have largely allowed Mr. Assad to use chemical weapons in the Middle East with impunity, Mr. Putin’s actions on the European continent are likely to cause more alarm and a stronger reaction.
“If Putin thinks he is going to be treated like al-Assad, he is wrong because he is not al-Assad and this is not Syria,” said Patricia Lewis, director of the international security program at Chatham House.
However, Mr. Putin could take some comfort in the fact that Mr. al-Assad survived: how the West continued to mistakenly believe that Mr. Assad’s downfall was inevitable, and how he clung to power despite sanctions, which strangled his economy and impoverished his people.
Emil Hokaem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warned of two strategies used in Syria that the Russians could use in Ukraine.
One was Russia’s involvement in international diplomacy aimed at ending violence as a way to distract the West from war on the ground. Another was the deliberate creation of a refugee crisis to stall Europe and drain its resources.
A refugee family from Ukraine arrives at a train station in Budapest, Hungary this month. Credit… Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
“Creating a humanitarian catastrophe is part of the military strategy, not a side effect, because that’s how you shift the burden to the other side,” he said.
Many Syrian refugees are watching the Ukrainian war from impoverished camps in the Middle East or from European cities where they struggle to start a new life.
While some are bitter about the warmth shown to the fleeing Ukrainians, the Syrians also remember their own war and hope that the Ukrainians will be better off than they are.
“We are left alone with our fate,” said Mansour Abu al-Khair, who survived two chemical attacks east of Damascus before fleeing as a refugee to southern Turkey. “I hope this doesn’t happen to the Ukrainians.”
Cora Engelbrecht provided reporting from London and Hwaida Saad and Asmaa al-Omar from Beirut, Lebanon.