(Updated at 11 p.m.)
As international political and media attention continues to focus on the war in Gaza, news is arriving from the Ukrainian fronts, which, as always, has difficulty obtaining confirmation from neutral sources, but which could have a significant impact on the short-term development of the conflict has been going on for 21 years now. Months.
On the night of October 23-24, the Ukrainian armed forces announced that they had shot down several Russian drone copies of the Iranian models Shahed-136 and 131: On the night of October 23, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense shot down five drones and one Kh -59 cruise missiles, the following day all 6 drones of the same type launched by Russian forces would have been shot down.
The increasing Russian production of kamikaze drones (perimeter munitions) of national design, with low cost and a wide spectrum of effectiveness, appears to demonstrate Moscow’s desire to gradually combine the Geran 2 with other models in the wake of successes on the battlefields and in close proximity Lancet family ammunition.
According to the AP agency, citing Ukrainian military sources, yesterday a Russian attack with eleven Geran 2 kamikaze drones destroyed a large underground ammunition depot at the Khmelnytskyi air base and a large military complex (in the photo above) in central Ukraine. In this area, the Russians have previously attacked large arms and ammunition depots supplied to Ukraine by the Western allies.
Ukrainian sources report that they shot down all the drones, and the Ministry of Energy Infrastructure in Kiev said that debris from the drones that crashed in Khmelnytskyy broke the windows of the administrative building and laboratory of the local nuclear power plant, knocking out power to more than 1,800 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said his country’s air defense was preparing for another winter of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
The assessments of the security of the nuclear power plant appear to be useful in diverting attention from the attack on the weapons and ammunition depot, which was probably the real target of the Russian raid or, in any case, the main target of an attack that could also have targeted energy infrastructure .
The large explosion was discovered near Starokonstantinov Airport, home to the few remaining airworthy Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-24M aircraft equipped with SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles (in the photo above, President Zelensky is “signing” a SCALP -EG, which left for a Su-24M aircraft). 24), supplied by France and Britain and also confirmed by amateur videos from social media and Ukrainian media, appear to indicate the destruction of a large ammunition depot with multiple secondary explosions
The Ukrainian aircraft massacre
News published or filtered by Russian sources is also relevant. On October 22, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced in its usual daily report that Russian air defense systems had shot down seven Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jets between October 19 and 20, likely among the latest aircraft deliveries sold by air force Polish and Slovak. On military Telegram channels, some observers suspect that the high number of kills is due to a significant increase in the number and deployment of fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets by Russia in the Ukrainian theater.
Reviews that could be aimed at highlighting the “flagship” of Russian aircraft, even if the long-range R-37M Vympel missiles (AA-13 Arrow for NATO – in the photo below) are widely used in the Ukrainian conflict, including from the Sukhoi Su -35 and United Aircraft Corporation, the Russian aviation group controlled by Rostec, announced on October 24 that it has delivered a new batch of Su-35S multirole fighters to the Aerospace Forces (VKS).
The Russian Defense Ministry added that in the period from October 14 to 20, up to twelve Ukrainian Air Force aircraft were destroyed in the combat zone by Russian fighters: ten MiG-29 fighters and two Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets. as well as two Mil Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters.
On October 25, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, during a visit to the headquarters of the Vostok Group led by Lieutenant General Andrei Kuzmenko in the southern sector of Donetsk, said that up to 24 Ukrainian aircraft had been shot down in five days. Figures that have not been confirmed or denied by Kiev or by neutral sources, but which, if they were true or even close to reality, would significantly increase the availability of Ukrainian combat aircraft based on the Sukhoi Su 27, Su-24, Su-25 and would reduce Wed 29.
Other Russian sources close to the military attribute the successes against Ukrainian aircraft not so much to greater use of Su-57s (in the photo above), but to better integration between the long-range S-400 air defense batteries (in the photo). below) and the Russian Beriev A-50U radar aircraft, which is capable of targeting flying targets even at relatively low altitudes below 1,000 meters.
The strange case of the intercepted ATACMS
On October 25, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it had shot down two recently transferred MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) tactical ballistic missiles in flight using its air defense systems for the first time in the past 24 hours October was used to attack two airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk used by Russian Army helicopters operating on the Donbass and Zaporizhzhia fronts, the defense analysis also shows.
The Russian Defense Ministry, quoted by TASS, announced that “air defense capabilities in the last 24 hours included two US-made tactical ATACMS missiles, an S-200 surface-to-air missile converted to attack ground targets, and two HARM defense missiles intercepted radiation missiles and two missiles of the US-made HIMARS multiple rocket missile system,” the ministry said in a statement.
The strange thing in this regard is that on October 21, the British magazine The Spectator published an article by Mark Galeotti saying that the Russians had managed to destroy most of the long-range ATACMS missiles used by Ukraine (see image below). to intercept. “It appears that most ATACMS missiles were intercepted, deceived, or otherwise missed their target,” the article said.
The article, which noted how the Russian armed forces have learned to adapt to and deal with new types of weapons being transferred to Ukraine, was picked up by the St. Petersburg newspaper Izvestia on the same day.
Apart from the good sources that Galeotti has always been able to boast of, the published news of the intercepts that the Russians would successfully carry out against the ATACMS came just days before the Russian announcement that they were “for the first time” two of these Missiles fired would have had time” like October 25th.
Therefore, it is plausible that the Russians had intercepted at least part of the 18 ATACMS missiles used against the two Russian airports, which is indirectly confirmed by some videos published on Telegram channels showing the Russian helicopters stationed in Luhansk and Berdyansk, whose Overall damage is limited to American missiles.
The Russians advance on Avdiivka
On the battlefield, the Ukrainian counteroffensive appears to have exhausted its momentum almost five months after it began on June 4, with no significant territorial gains on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
In the Kherson region, the Ukrainians continue to land light infantry from small river boats on the eastern bank of the Dnieper near the long-destroyed Antonovsky Bridge (in the photo below), forcing the Russians to attack infantry, artillery and airborne forces (with increasing use of FAB-500s -guided bombs) to repel them.
On the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, the Ukrainians continue their attacks, albeit at a reduced intensity and with a steady decline in the intensity of artillery fire, which could indicate a significant shortage as fewer supplies arrive from the West and several storage facilities have to be destroyed too Russian attacks in depth.
In the last 24 hours, Russian forces destroyed two Leopard tanks in the Zaporizhia region, the Russian Defense Ministry reported in its daily bulletin today. “Russian units repelled the attack of the assault group of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the Rabotino settlement. The enemy losses in this direction amounted to 85 soldiers, 3 tanks, including 2 Leopards, 4 armored fighting vehicles and 2 vehicles.
Around Rabotino, the section of the Zaporizhzhia Front where the Ukrainians were most hemmed in despite failing to overcome the Surovikin Line, Russian sources reported a fierce counterattack that resulted in heavy Ukrainian casualties and the surrender of many soldiers (11,500 Ukrainian prisoners in Russian hands according to the Ukrainian Telegram channel Wartears) and the withdrawal of the lines of the Kiev forces.
For over two months, the Russians have seized the initiative in the Kupiansk sector (between Luhansk and Kharkiv regions). Here, Moscow’s forces are trying to capture the Kupiansk-Uzlovoy railway junction, Ukrainian military sources admitted to Radio Svoboda. This railway junction is “strategically important”, necessary to encircle the city of Kupyansk, “the situation is very difficult”.
Confirming Ukraine’s difficulties in this area, Kiev announced today that it intends to evacuate hundreds of children from communities near Kupiansk. “The Kharkiv Regional Military Administration plans to announce the forced evacuation of children from ten settlements in the Kharkiv region,” the Kiev Reintegration Ministry said. 275 children are expected to be evacuated from 10 locations in and around Kupyansk, which is less than eight kilometers from the front line. Ukrainian authorities had already announced evacuation orders for some settlements near Kupiansk in August, but fighting has intensified since then.
The Russians have also been advancing in the Avdiivka sector, in the Donetsk region south of Bakhmut, for at least a week. “The areas of Avdiivka and Marinka are particularly difficult. Numerous attacks by the Russians, but our positions remain protected,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 22.
On October 25, Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for Ukraine’s Southern Forces Group, reported on Ukrainian state television that the Russians had “dropped about 40 guided aerial bombs in two nights,” marking a decline in ground offensives that the Ukrainian source described as “heavy.” They put the Russians’ losses suffered at Shtupun at “2,400 dead and wounded in the last five days”, mainly around Avdiivka and the nearby town of Maryinka, both of which have been under attack for some time. Kiev announced yesterday that 296,310 Russian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s attack on Ukraine began, a figure that is significantly overestimated even by many Western sources.
Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Ukrainian military administration in Avdiivka, said the city was under constant air and artillery attacks. “The enemy is trying to surround the city and is sending new forces from the north and south.” As in other urban centers threatened by the Russian advance, several civilians have no intention of leaving their homes. “Yesterday we were only able to evacuate one person,” Barabash said. “People don’t leave, I wish they would do it more actively.”
Instead, Russian sources report a particularly significant advance north of the city, allowing them to threaten the roads through which supplies flow to the Ukrainian garrison by seizing key heights and attempting to take control of the railway. The Russian operation appears to follow the same pattern as always: advance on the sides of the urban center to threaten the enemy’s logistics lines, favoring his encirclement in order to force the Ukrainian forces to retreat.
This afternoon, Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov announced on his Telegram channel that “Russian forces have captured an area about 1 kilometer wide along a railway embankment north of the disputed town of Avdiivka and advances are planned along the embankment towards the villages.” Stepove and Berdychiv. According to various sources, the supply corridor controlled by Ukrainian troops has shrunk to only 6-8 kilometers.
According to some Russian sources, many veterans of the Battle of Bakhmut who fought in the ranks of PMC Wagner were deployed in the Avdiivka sector.
The capture of Avdiivka would also have significant value for the security of the population of the nearby city of Donetsk, which is exposed to Ukrainian artillery fire.
Russians and Ukrainians talk
Ukraine and Russia continue to maintain communication channels to resolve important humanitarian issues related to the exchange of prisoners of war, dead, the grain corridor and the return of Ukrainian children from Russia. This is what the Washington Post writes, reports Pravda Ukraine. “In some cases, Moscow and Kiev use intermediaries, notably Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the Vatican and the International Committee of the Red Cross.” But most prisoner exchanges are direct.
It was reported – writes Pravda Ukraine – that on the Russian side, negotiations on the exchange of prisoners were being conducted by the Coordination Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which includes the FSB. Individual Russian politicians and private military formations such as Wagner and Akhmat also reportedly exerted pressure for the release of certain prisoners. The exchange of prisoners and the exchange of bodies of fallen soldiers is taking place mainly in the northeast of the Sumy region, the only section of the Ukrainian-Russian border where there is no land fighting. About twice a month, refrigerated trucks carrying bodies arrive at the border and are unloaded and reloaded, said Oleg Kotenko, a Ukrainian official who oversaw the transfer of bodies and the search for missing soldiers until September.
The Kiev-trained Russians
The Armed Forces of Ukraine train an army battalion composed exclusively of Russian citizens and members of ethnic minorities who seek independence from the Russian Federation and view the conflict in Ukraine as a useful step towards achieving this goal. Bloomberg writes, Italy’s Agenzia Nova reports, citing anonymous officials responsible for training volunteers.
The unit called Sibir (“Siberia”) already includes dozens of volunteer soldiers who came to Ukraine via third countries to join the Kiev resistance. Unlike the groups of “Russian volunteers” that have carried out attacks and sabotage operations against settlements across the Russian border in recent months, the new battalion is integrated into the Ukrainian army and, according to Bloomberg information, will soon be deployed on the front against the Russian armed forces.
Slovakia stops military aid to Ukraine
As promised during the election campaign, the new Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has announced the end of military support to Kiev, which will now only receive humanitarian aid from Bratislava. The abandonment of military support for Ukraine and the end of sanctions against Russia had become a central theme of Fico’s election campaign, which aligned itself with Hungary in clear contrast to the policies of NATO and the EU.
According to Slovak television, Fico reiterated to the European Committee of the Bratislava Parliament that he would not send weapons to Ukraine but wanted to maintain humanitarian aid, including demining of Ukrainian territory. At the European level, he will oppose any sanctions against Russia unless the financial impact of such sanctions is quantified. “My government’s position is that an immediate cessation of military operations is the best solution we have for Ukraine. The European Union should transform itself from an arms supplier to a peacemaker. It is better to negotiate peace for ten years than to kill each other without results for ten years,” the Prime Minister added.
So far, Bratislava has handed over large quantities of weapons, ammunition and equipment to Kiev, including 30 BMP-1 combat vehicles, 4 Zuzana 155mm self-propelled howitzers, an S-300 anti-aircraft missile battery and 13 Mig-29 fighter jets complete with missiles and spare parts as well as 4 MI-17 multi-purpose helicopters.
More help for Kiev from the USA and Denmark
Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a post on the social network The package includes ammunition for surface-to-air missile systems (probably Patriot systems and NASAMS) as well as anti-tank missiles. Portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS), which also fire ATACMS missiles. The graphic below shows the development of US military supplies to Ukraine since the start of the Russian special military operation.
Denmark will donate military equipment worth around 500 million euros to Ukraine, British newspaper The Guardian reported, citing Defense Ministry sources in Copenhagen who did not provide details about the type of equipment, but could include tanks, combat vehicles and ammunition Russian/Soviet type already supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and acquired from third countries.
Denmark has already supplied Ukraine with large quantities of weapons, ammunition and various equipment, including 120 mm mortars, 19 self-propelled howitzers of 155 mm caliber and Caesar with 19,000 rounds of ammunition, 24 towed howitzers of 155 mm caliber FH-70 and 54 tracked howitzers of type M113.
@GianandreaGaian
Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Telegram TestPilot.ru
Maps: ISW
Graphic: US Department of Defense