Fanpage.it interview with Andrea Gilli, senior researcher at NATO Defense College on the war in Ukraine: “It is likely that before winter sets in, the forces of Kyiv will want to at least try the counter-offensive in Kherson. Russia is facing growing problems. The direction of the alliance will always be the same: deal with Russian threats without retreating, but not even without letting them grow.
Interview with Andrea Gilli
Senior Researcher at the NATO Defense College.
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“It is possible that a Kherson What happened in Kharkiv is happening: a significant and fairly rapid Ukrainian counter-offensive. I think the Kyiv Armed Forces will at least try to do this before winter comes. Nato? It handles Russian threats without retreating, but not even without letting them grow.
Like this Andrew GillySenior Researcher at the NATO Defense College, commented on Fanpage.it the latest developments of the war in Ukrainewho also, from a purely personal point of view, makes predictions about what could happen in the near future.
The British and American 007ers speak of a Russian withdrawal from Kherson. Do you think that if this happens, this could lead to a new course of the war in Ukraine?
Because the Ukrainian victory against Russia is far away, and the war will continue for a long time
“Russian forces are withdrawing, although it is obviously difficult to assess the extent of this withdrawal: from the whole oblast or just from the city? Is it possible that what we saw in Kharkiv in September will also happen in Kherson: a significant and fairly rapid Ukrainian counter-offensive. I think it’s likely that Kyiv’s armed forces will at least try to do that before winter comes. Certainly it will not be easy for the Russian armed forces to reach the spring between cold and lack of supplies, morale torn to pieces and, above all, increasingly exposing their rear areas to Ukrainian artillery”.
Stoltenberg declared in recent days that “Putin is failing”: what are the elements that can make us believe that the conflict is actually going in the opposite direction than what Moscow wanted?
“In the Donbass, Wagner’s Russian forces are now in defensive lines from which they withdrew on February 24th. If we look at the territory that is still under Russian control, it continues to deteriorate. Likewise, we know that the Russian troops are in rather disadvantageous conditions and, in part, objectively intolerable: lack of winter uniforms, lack of medicines, unheated tents who are neither trained nor motivated to fight. Russia is facing growing problems, both because of the huge losses on the ground and because of the sanctions that do not allow existing stocks to be replenished “.
Andrea Gilli.
The threats of nuclear war appear to have diminished in recent days. In any case, is Allianz ready to face a similar scenario?
“NATO is an alliance dedicated to international security. Part of its mandate is to ensure the security of its allies. Russia, by waving nuclear threats, is proving to be an unreliable and irresponsible actor. NATO’s goal since inception has been The conflict – which I believe succeeded in doing – was to protect the allies and thus prevent the war from escalating, to support Ukraine in its defense and to sanction Moscow for its behavior in dealing with Russian threats without retreat, but not even without letting them grow On their side, the NATO countries have the technological and organizational advantage that acts as an effective deterrent.
As for nuclear power, the Steadfast Noon exercise planned before the war in Ukraine is underway. And two Russian warships have also appeared in the Mediterranean. What’s happening?
“Deterrence requires skills. Skills need to be tested and improved on a regular basis. These drills are designed to train our forces so we can signal our responsiveness to every actor. Russia is doing what it does best: threatening, bolstering its forces. with the aim of intimidating and frightening the democracies it wants to unhinge”.
Has Ukraine made a formal application to join NATO? What is the schedule and next steps?
“Very difficult to say. There are political and administrative times. At the political level, the consent of all allies is required: I have no way of knowing if there is consent and how long it could possibly take for that to form: 1, 10 or 20 I don’t know and I can’t know because a change of government in an allied country is enough to change the situation, although I don’t think that as long as the war is going on Ukraine can join NATO, but this is a personal opinion. Management times vary and depend on a number of technical, tactical and operational parameters. Let me give a simple example: being a member of NATO means having access to classified documents. It is important that every allied This includes being able to meet and maintain certain safety standards, and these standards must be adopted and reviewed be called. This requires a series of reforms. In some countries it can take a few months, in others several years.”