Russia’s Bakhmut offensive in eastern Ukraine has “largely stalled” because sheer numbers of troops have been lost in months of fighting.
That’s the latest intelligence assessment from the UK Ministry of Defense, which says the impasse “is likely due primarily to the extreme attrition of Russian forces” but notes that “Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties during its defense.”
The Defense Ministry says the situation on the ground around Bakhmut “was likely exacerbated by tensions between the Russian Defense Ministry and the Wagner Group,” both of which have deployed troops to the area.
For several weeks, the leader of Wagner’s notorious mercenary force was kept at bay by Russia’s military when Wagner sent troops into the Battle of Bakhmut and suffered heavy casualties.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prugozhin took his most outspoken attitude against the Kremlin’s Ukraine narrative this week, against Russian claims that NATO is fighting in Ukraine, and against the question of whether there really are Nazis in Ukraine.
The Kremlin has repeatedly justified its invasion of its neighbor with the need to rid Kiev of neo-Nazis who threaten Russia’s peace and security, despite scant evidence to support this.
In parallel, it has increasingly portrayed the war as an existential struggle against NATO, which they claim is pushing Russia’s limits.
Prigozhin said Moscow is fighting “exclusively with Ukrainians” equipped with NATO-provided equipment and some “Russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support Ukraine — but not NATO itself, according to a US baseline assessment Institute for War Studies.
Russia is shifting the focus of operations
The UK MoD says Russia is shifting the focus of its operations to the City of Avdiivkasouth of Bakhmut and north of the city to the Kremina-Svatove area, where Russia hopes to establish its frontline presence.
“This indicates a general return to a more defensive operational design following the inconclusive results of its attempts to conduct a general offensive since January 2023,” concludes Saturday’s intelligence report.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden says China has yet to deliver arms to Russia, despite fears it might do so.
“It’s been three months now since I’ve heard that China will supply key arms to Russia… That doesn’t mean they won’t, but they haven’t,” Biden said Friday during a visit to Canada .
during one Visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow For their part, this week Russians and Chinese hailed the entry into a “new era” of their “special relationship.”
But while the Chinese leader promised moral support and a commercial lifeline, he refrained from at least publicly promising arms supplies to Russia, which could have led to Western sanctions against his country.