The head of Moldova’s security services, Alexandru Mustiata, warns of a “very high risk” of a new Russian offensive in Transnistria, the country’s eastern region bordering Ukraine. The offensive could start at the beginning of the year: “The question is not whether the Russian Federation will undertake a new push on Moldovan territory, but when it will do so.” Moldova’s 007 chief said his agency believes Moscow is evaluating different scenarios to reach Moldova and that an offensive could be launched in January-February or later in March-April. Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russian separatists, is permanently home to 1,500 Russian soldiers and a large cache of weapons.
Subsequently, the secret services themselves made it clear that a lot would depend on the “development of the war in Ukraine.” “Based on our information, Russia could move forward to create a corridor with Transnistria, which is the territory of Moldova. What will happen next? We can discuss their intentions towards Chisinau, but there is a real and very high risk,” Mustiata continued. Moscow, he says, may also be interested in the ammunition depot in the pro-Russian separatist region, which is the largest in Europe.
Last spring, Russian forces said they wanted to conquer Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and advance as far as Transnistria. Now the security forces in Chisinau fear this hypothesis again, while the government in Kyiv is talking about a possible new Russian offensive early next year. On December 6, Prime Ministers of Moldova and Ukraine, Natalia Gavrilița and Denys Shmyhal, agreed in Kyiv to cooperate on improving air defense and border control, but also on peace and security in Moldova’s Transnistria region.