Russia’s shortage of arms and troops has forced it to turn to other rogue states and some surprising sources to sustain its invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts predicted the invasion of Russia would last only days or weeks, relying on a superior military power with huge supplies and an overwhelming manpower advantage, but nine months later Moscow has tried to source arms and troops from other countries.
“Russia was clearly unprepared for the nine-month drudgery it is now enduring in Ukraine,” Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting and a former DIA intelligence officer, told Fox News Digital. “Putin thought it would be a one to two week project, [and] Russian intelligence could not accurately assess Zelenskyy’s ability to mobilize Western support, the Ukrainians’ willingness to fight, the willingness of the US and Europe to provide unprecedented security assistance, and the tactical limitations of Russian forces.
Pundits previously told Fox News Digital how “rampant” corruption has undermined the Russian military, with oligarchs allegedly pocketing the money rather than investing it in the military over the past thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Rebekah Koffler (Rebecca Koffler)
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And Ukraine bolstered its own stockpiles with heavy investments from the US and its NATO allies, which helped level the battlefield for months and allowed Ukraine to push back Russian forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin has had to withdraw his troops to the eastern border and focus on sealing off the “rebel” states in Ukraine after failing to achieve a major strategic objective.
But now Russia has begun building its own coalition of allies, even as those allies try to keep their support silent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, front right, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, and Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Fleet Nikolai Yevmenov, rear right, board a boat during the Navy Day parade July 31, 2022 in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Contributor/Getty Images)
“Russia has already launched 3,000 to 4,000 missiles in Ukraine, more than expected, with hundreds of missiles fired at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure over the past two weeks in a bid to cut power and water supplies ahead of the winter,” Koffler said. She added that “Russia’s missile arsenal is almost certainly exhausted” and that the current inventory is “probably” below 40% of pre-war levels.
The US on Wednesday accused North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells, and reports last month detailed how Iran first supplied Russia with Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones and then trained Russian troops in their use. New reports suggest that Iran has added Mohajer-6 and Shahed-129 drones to its deliveries.
White House National Security spokesman John Kirby told a virtual briefing that North Korea had tried to cover up the supplies by sending them through countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Portal reported.
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“Our leads are that the DPRK is delivering covertly and we will monitor for supplies coming in,” Kirby said, adding that Washington will consult with the United Nations on accountability issues related to the shipments.
“We have an idea of where they’re going to transfer these shells to,” Kirby said. He declined to give further details while the US weighs its possible options. But he insisted the guns were unlikely to change the dynamics or outcome of the war.
Russian self-propelled artillery vehicles roll during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, May 9. (AP/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) reported that Iran could even step up its support and provide short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that suggests Tehran will receive economic relief through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). — also known as the Iran nuclear deal — would end up funding Russia’s war and undermining US sanctions.
“With reports that Iran is planning to send short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to be used against Ukraine – and while the Iranian people are in the streets clamoring for regime change – the US and its European allies should withdraw any sanctions relief offered to Tehran and complete the lifting of UN sanctions in the Security Council,” wrote Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser to the FDD, in an analysis released Wednesday.
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The transfer would include the Fateh-110 and Zulfiqar short-range ballistic missiles. The Fateh-110 can reach a range of 150-180 miles, while the Zulfiqar could potentially reach targets within 435 miles.
Iran has already sent over 3,500 drones to Russia, with most of the units manufactured in factories run by the Iranian Defense Ministry and the Iranian Aviation and Space Industries Association (IASIA).
Russian military vehicles move along a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists near Mariupol, Ukraine, in late April. (AP/Alexei Alexandrov)
Guns alone will not win the war as Putin also sought to replenish his depleted military forces. After months of silence about the true number of casualties, both CIA director William Burns and British intelligence chief Richard Moore said Russia lost around 15,000 troops in the first five months of the invasion.
“We’ve seen for months attempts by Russia to recruit some sort of its own version of the Foreign Legion, certain local Wagner group communities from Syria, from Libya, from the Central African Republic,” Goldberg told Fox News Digital. “We have also heard reports from Serbs fighting on the pro-Russian side.”
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“[One of] The main motivation for the Russians to do this is that they are quickly exhausting their own forces,” Goldberg explained. “They are operating in reserve conscription and do not want to continue to tax the Russian population wherever possible.
“To the extent they can rely on foreign troops to get the job done, let non-Russians fight and die, rather than bringing Russian bodies home to their families, that’s their preference,” he added, noting that Putin is aiming for “low” – low-cost, high-impact systems.”
Russian and Belarusian armed forces take part in a military exercise in Gomel, Belarus, on February 19. (Agency Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Putin attempted to replenish his forces through forced conscription by announcing “partial mobilization,” but many Russian men chose to flee the country rather than join Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Russia had already drawn in Chechen fighters in the early stages of the Ukraine war after it became clear that the conflict would not end as quickly as Putin believed and would require more engagement.
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In the months that followed, reports surfaced of Russia turning to friendly nations for reinforcements. The New York Times reported in April that Putin had approached Syrian and Georgian fighters to bolster his forces.
And several Afghan military and security sources said last week that elite soldiers from the National Army Commando Corps began joining Russian forces after the US abandoned the 20,000-30,000-strong force following its military withdrawal.
Ukrainian firefighters put out a fire after a strike in Zaporizhia October 6, 2022 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Marina Moiseyenko/AFP via Getty Images)
Up to 10,000 of the former commandos were initially inclined to accept Russia’s offer, Foreign Policy reported.
Goldberg compared Russia’s growing coalition to the International Legion of Ukraine, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formed at the start of the conflict. It attracted 20,000 volunteers from 52 countries in its first week.
“Moscow is running out of both military equipment and personnel and needs to fill the gaps with non-indigenous skills. It procures weapons from Iran and North Korea and relies on the mercenary contingent, the Wagner group, the Chechen fighters Kadyrov to replenish its regular forces,” Koffler said , when the Taliban came to power after the US withdrawal.
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“Despite all these restrictions, Putin will not back down. On the contrary, he is preparing for an all-out battle with the US and NATO and is shifting to an asymmetric strategy.”
Portal contributed to this report.
Peter Aitken is a reporter at Fox News Digital specializing in national and global news.