Russo-Ukrainian war: Russian nuclear threat ‘likely to increase’, US intelligence officials say

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U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday that the nuclear threat from Russia is likely “growing” as the invasion of Ukraine continues into its second week.

That assertion was made on Tuesday when the House Intelligence Committee convened hearings on “global threats.”

In an interrogation over nuclear threats, Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio asked Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes, CIA Director William Burns, and U.S. Army Lieutenant General Scott David Berrier to assess how likely it would be for Russian President Vladimir Putin to activate its nuclear weapons if the US and NATO allied forces come into conflict in Ukraine.

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“Would it be correct to characterize that, probably, your assessment is that the threat is increasing?” Turner asked. To this, Haynes replied that “the threat is increasing, in general, yes, I think it’s fair.”

“I absolutely agree that the threat is increasing,” Burns said. “I think our role is to try to give an idea from within the intelligence community about the plans, ambitions, the pace at which adversaries – China or Russia – can move on these issues. It is very important for us not to underestimate either the scale of these ambitions or the speed with which they can develop. One example is China and hypersound.”

Haynes said the U.S. has not seen a change in Russia’s nuclear forces that “goes beyond what we’ve seen in previous moments of heightened tension over the past few decades.”

The US is conducting a nuclear policy review to review its own modernization programs and policies, including a missile defense review, given the nuclear threat from Russia, China, and other authoritarian regimes. Turner said he thinks Putin feels “bold” given Russia’s nuclear infrastructure upgrades. Separately, China is investing in its intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonics.

“I believe the threat is increasing,” Berrier said, confirming his participation in the study. “Our role is to really provide the best military intelligence related to these weapons, facilities, organizations and doctrines that we can, so that our politicians can make the right decision.”

Earlier in the hearing, Turner described how Putin “said that if anyone came into conflict, he would escalate, including nuclear strikes as part of his exercises.”

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“Before entering Ukraine, it included a nuclear weapons component,” the congressman explained. “He’s been very rabid about modernizing their nuclear weapons and the new capabilities they’re looking for, including the hypersonic ones they’ve now deployed.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the occasion of International Women's Day in Moscow, Tuesday, March 8, 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the occasion of International Women’s Day in Moscow, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. (Press Service of the President of Russia via AP)

– Do you believe him? Turner asked. “Do you think that if the United States or its NATO allies enter this conflict to protect the innocent people that Vladimir Putin is killing in this unprovoked attack, then this could escalate and that he would be ready to turn this conflict into a nuclear conflict?”

In late February, Putin publicly announced that he was putting his nuclear system on a state of special alert. Haynes said the remarks were “very unusual” and should be taken “very seriously”.

“We think he’s effectively signaling what he’s trying to contain,” Haynes said.

Russia decided to hold a planned nuclear exercise, which had been postponed since the fall, last month, with Haynes reiterating that the timing of the exercise at the same time as the invasion of Ukraine was intended as “a way of saying it could escalate and therefore NATO should not get involved.” .”

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“We are following the movements of these strategic nuclear forces very closely,” Haynes said. “And at this stage, we don’t see anything that would indicate that he is doing something else.”

If the United States and NATO were directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Burns said that Russian military doctrine says: “You are de-escalating,” so, in his words, “the risk will increase, according to the doctrine.”

Speaking of Putin, Berrier added: “I also think that when he says something, we should listen very, very carefully and maybe take his word for it.” Putin has “very wisely” invested in niche weapons that he believes give him an “asymmetric advantage,” Berrier said.